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Every prediction date on 44 shows that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.
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Everyone Jason Lemkin (127)Chamath Palihapitiya (119)Rory O'Driscoll (115)Jason Calacanis (78)David Sacks (69)David Friedberg (63)Harry Stebbings (47)David Senra (45)Brad Gerstner (43)Alex Kantrowitz (38)John Coogan (37)Shaan Puri (36)
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The record (3,751) every resolved claim →
Natale: Permafrost thaw will reach 30% to 70% by 2100
“There's a, there's an Kind of a range of possibilities for how much permafrost will thaw, say, by 2100, and number of different, based on a number of different models, but the range always stays somewhere between 30 to 70%, something like that, and I think abo…”
Vogt: Within 50 years, human driving will be seen as reckless
“The first is, is that I have very little doubt that self-driving cars will be Many, many, many, many times safer than human drivers to the point where it starts to look a little reckless to let humans drive cars in places where there might be pedestrians and c…”
Wolf: Future wearables will predict illnesses before patients feel any symptoms
“These wearable devices are gonna predict that you're getting sick before you even start feeling symptoms and know.”
Boneh: An operating quantum computer will likely be built within his lifetime
“I would speculate that in my lifetime, We'll probably see some sort of a, of operating quantum computer.”
Sramek: California Forever city is designed for up to 400,000 residents
“And then imagine that it was a city for up to 400,000 people that was entitled and approved at once, and so you knew that for the next you knew that for the next 30 years, if this office is going to work and you'll be able to hire talent there, there'll be eno…”
Singh: Indian female workforce participation will reach 30-40% in 20-30 years
“There is no doubt next two, three decades, the number will go to 30, 40%. When it happens, beauty, fashion are two categories which will heavily be impacted, right?”
Lamm: Earth is forecasted to lose 50% of biodiversity within 25 years
“It's currently forecasted that we're going to lose up to 50% of all biodiversity in the next 25 years.”
Grunwald: Feeding 2050 Population Needs Two Indias' Worth of New Land
“If, even if we continue to increase farm yields at the same rate they've increased throughout the Green Revolution we're gonna need another two India's worth of land, which essentially means, you know, gonna bye-bye Amazon and Congo rainforests, you know, very…”
Subramanian: India's population growth will average roughly 0.5% annually
“India's population growth is like, it is likely to be about half a percent on average per annum.”
Aviation could account for 50% of global CO2 emissions by 2050
“But our own industry projections are that by 20 50, that's going to be anywhere up to 50% of all CO two emissions everywhere.”
Lubershain: Global AC demand will add another US power sector by 2050
“Depending on what forecast you look at in a sort of business as usual technology scenario, that means we're on track to add, roughly speaking, another whole U.S. Electricity sector worth of electricity demand globally for this new air conditioning demand by ar…”
Mukhopadhyay: Decarbonizing 2050 aviation requires today's entire global renewable energy output
“In 2050, the amount of electricity that would be required to decarbonize aviation is the entire renewable energy production today. So all of the energy, renewable energy that is produced today could be used up in aviation alone.”
Kyle Hill: The US senior population will double by 2050
“And then our senior population is going to double by 20 50.”
Friedrich: Capping climate change under 2C by 2050 impossible without reduced meat intake
“According to Chatham House, the foremost think tank in Europe, it's a literal and scientific impossibility that we keep climate change under two degrees Celsius by 20 50. Unless meat consumption goes down, and right now it's going up.”
Hecker: Broken European pensions will force millions to invest over 20-30 years
“The statutory pension system we have in continental Europe is inherently broken, and that thesis suggests that basically in the next 2030 years, millions of people are going to start investing.”
Luxon: New Zealand might achieve net zero six years early
“And obviously we've got a big commitment to, you know, net 20, 50. And in fact our latest plan, which we have legislated into our parliament you know, even since we might even get there six years early.”
Banga: 1.2B emerging-market youth will reach adulthood facing only 400M jobs
“1.2 billion young people in the emerging markets are going to become 18 years of age in the coming Mutomati 15 years. Right?
Yeah.
Currently, the same markets, currently, this is pre-AI, and we can talk about AI's impacts on the developed world versus the de…”
Chamath: Global copper supply will be short 70% by 2040
“And right now, Jason, we are on a path by 2040 where we will be short about 70% of the global supply at current course and speed.”
Chamath: $30 trillion wealth transfer will occur over 20 years
“And we are about to go through over the next 20 years, 30 trillion dollars of wealth transfer.”
Sacks predicts no new U.S. gun control legislation for a generation
“There's not going to be any new gun control legislation for a generation because of the looting and writing that's going on Gun sales are at an all-time high.”
China will reach negative population growth in the 2030s
“In 2030, or sometime in the 20 thirties, China is going to move to negative population growth.”
Chen: Bloomberg forecasts EV sales will match gas cars by 2038
“Bloomberg is forecasting, 2038 as the year where electric cars reach parity in terms of sales with gas burning cars, and then they never look back. That will be the year of peak gas car production, 2038.”
Andreessen: Global smartphone adoption will soon reach 6 to 7 billion people
“We're at the point now, three billion smartphones on its way to six, seven billion on the planet. We're going to be able to connect everybody. We're going to be able to get, over time, we're going to be able to get everybody all the things that I went through,…”
Preskill: Quantum computers will enable tabletop toy spacetime in decades
“And in particular, what we're going to be doing with quantum computers and, you know, the other quantum technologies that are Becoming increasingly sophisticated in the next couple of decades is we'll be able to control very well, highly entangled, complex qua…”
Chad Byers: Susa Ventures Will Permanently Cap Fund Size at $150M
“The end state for us is 125, one hundred and fifty million dollar fund capped at that size, never getting bigger. Focus exclusively at early stage.”
Taneja: AI will enable Theranos-style single-drop blood diagnostics within 10 years
“I think it's very likely because the challenge with this is how can you actually manufacture Those nano devices where you can take really low volumes and be accurate and measure these things. Technology wasn't there. So when you're going back to our hardware m…”
Cotton: China's nuclear arsenal will double by 2030 and again by 2035
“They've more than doubled the number of warheads they have since Xi took office. It's gonna double again, our Pentagon estimates, by the end of this decade, and double again by the middle of the next decade.”
Lott: Up to 17 states tied to California rules may ban gas cars
“New York is also banning gas-powered car sales by twenty-thirty-five, and soon, as many as 17 other states, like Washington and Massachusetts, which currently have vehicle emissions standards tied to California's, may follow suit.”
Aboyeji: Africa will have the majority of the global workforce by 2035
“In fact, just in the next 15 years, Africa is already majority of the world's working population.”
Tseng: Shield AI Will License AI Pilots to Defense Hardware Makers
“When we thought about the next 10 years, the question was, like, is the future really about Shield AI building the world's best AI pilot, or is it about making a contribution to the industrial base so that, you know, everybody that's building these systems You…”
Stan Boland: UK tech sector will reach $500B valuation in 10 years
“I think in, in 10 years time, I think we will be on, we will have achieved this five hundred billion dollars valuation in, in tech, and the UK will be seen as the magnet in Europe in which people come to kind of build these companies so that, that's what I thi…”
Travis Kalanick warns expanding California's grid by 10% will take years
“Even getting 20% more, 10% more is going to be a gargantuan five to 10 year exercise.”
Joel Martin: Value-based care won't reach 20% of healthcare costs by 2035
“Cause I certainly would not bet on It getting to even 20% of cost being covered by value-based care within the decade, for sure. I think it'll be for sure longer than that.”
Larson: IRA will cut US power emissions to ~500M tons by mid-2030s
“With our IRA analysis, we see... Power sector CO two emissions dropping potentially quite a large amount, like from like the one and a half billion tons or so from last year. Down to maybe half a billion tons, even lower in some instances, depending on the eco…”
McCord: AI infrastructure spending will reach $1T by early 2030s
“I think, you know, it'll be the biggest infrastructure build that humanity has ever done, I think. I think you could make that argument. I think we will hit a trillion dollars in the early 20 thirties.”
Raboy: Quantum computing is at least a decade away from commercial applications
“First of all, I think there's a long time before this becomes a commercial product or application of any sort. So, you know, it's great that they're taking money, but think about it as like almost like Stanford takes money or the U S government funds basic res…”
Pande: AI digital human models will enter clinical practice in 10 years
“And this could easily take 10 years before we start putting these things into the clinic. But I think it will happen, 10 years, a lot can happen in 10 years.”
Phillips: Social Security faces ~25% benefit cuts by 2033
“Social Security, the trust fund, will face probably reductions in 25, about 25% cut levels by twenty-thirty-three, based on the current path.”
Universal Hydrogen expects to retrofit half the target fleet by early 2030s
“We would expect to be able to get through at least half that fleet by the early 20 thirties.”
Cohen predicts streaming platforms will undergo market consolidation due to subscription fatigue
“Not all of these platforms are going to survive. There's just too many, you know, you've got to have too many subscriptions. It's too much for people. It's too expensive. It's too confusing. So I think you're gonna see consolidation there, which is in the inte…”
Khajuria: Private markets will reach $20 trillion or more in a decade
“The 12 trillion dollar industry is bigger than the GDP of most nations. And I think it's headed to grow further in the next decade, perhaps to 20 trillion or more.”
Mazumdar-Shaw: $100B of biologic drugs will lose patent protection by 2033
“So I think there are about a hundred billion dollars of biologic drugs coming off patent in the next 10 years. And this is the opportunity we are addressing.”
Steyer predicts long-term energy storage systems will be viable by 2033
“Over the next 10 years, we'll have storage systems that enable us to do long-term storage”
Friedmann: Distributed ammonia production will emerge over the next decade
“If you have distributed hydrogen production, you could very well have distributed ammonia production. And so these kinds of things are opportunities that we're going to see emerge over the next decade, and I'm excited to see that technology come to the field.”
Khajuria: Private markets are on track to hit $20T within a decade
“And then equally, if you look at the size and scale of this industry, 12 odd trillion on its way to 20 trillion across private markets in the next decade, this is an important part of the economy, period.”
Armstrong: Coinbase will evolve into a holding company of decentralized units
“The future is a little hard to predict, but look, here's one vision I've had for it, which is that I think Coinbase Global, the parent company is starting to become more like a holding company over time. And we have this portfolio of different products, differ…”
Parr: AI video generation tools will be standard within ten years
“Like if they're not doing it now, like it's reasonable that in the near term of 10 years, like this is going to be normal and add two inches to that guy's neck beard and this is done.”
Beard: Geothermal will scale via shallow sedimentary basins before deep rock
“That I think is how geothermal or geothermal anywhere will roll out in the next decade, is you've got teams that are in sedimentary basins right now, like In South Texas, right? They're trying geothermal anywhere projects in places where they can get to heat i…”
Gard-Murray: Heat pump incentives will save consumers $27 billion over a decade
“Over the next decade, we project that a conversion incentive like the one we wrote about would save consumers twenty seven billion dollars.”
Chokshi: 65+ Population Will Double Over Next 15 Years
“In fact, the over-sixty-five-year-old population is doubling over just the next decade and a half or so”
Calacanis: DAO capital pools will reach $4 billion within ten years
“So what we're going to see I predict is this forty million dollar Dow will turn into a 400,000,001 in the next two years and then a 4,000,001 in the next 10.”
Levy predicts cross-stage firms will scale companies from Series A to take-private
“In 10 years from now, it may be sooner than that, that you're going to have a handful of investment firms that are cross-stage, and you're going to show up at the Series A investor meeting, and you're going to say to the entrepreneur, I'm going to scale with y…”
Greze: Meta will launch a personal AI assistant inside WhatsApp
“They're going to have a personal assistant that's going to come in WhatsApp. I don't know if they're launching it in a day or in three months, but it's coming.”
Dell: AI will soon be the world's largest consumer of electricity
“And it's now the fastest growing and soon going to be the largest consumer of electricity in the world. And its name is AI.”
The music industry will be bigger than ever thanks to generative AI
“And now that people are making music again, I think the music industry is going to be bigger than it's ever been.”
Prince: Google Paying Publishers for AI Scraping Is Inevitable
“I don't know if they'll pay up before the deadline, but I think it's inevitable that they'll pay up. Because again, I think that they need the content and they understand fundamentally that journalists and content creators and academics deserve to eat.”
Iovine: Artists whose work influences AI music generation will get paid
“They didn't get paid. But now if you're influenced by the Beatles and Dr. Dre, they will get paid.”
Kompalli: ChatGPT will eventually launch its own advertising platform
“Then there is ads that ChatGPT will launch, and we don't know if there is some play there.”
Vishria: AI will yield an oligopoly and multiple $100B specialized winners
“So it's just, it feels to me like we're gonna end up with an oligopoly Of winners, and there will be, I really believe they will be these, like, hundred billion dollar crazy smaller winners and so, like, that's, you know, that's, like, that just feels like tha…”
Greg Isenberg: AI Agents Will Soon Have Wallets to Execute Autonomous Transactions
“Well, we're moving into a future where agents are going to have wallets. They're going to have email addresses. And assuming that's true, and I think, you know, there's a good chance that that happen is happening happens because it's already starting to happen…”
Hawkins: Most Data Centers Are Moving to Closed-Loop Cooling
“Frankly, most of the industry is going that way.”
O'Driscoll: Customer support applications will not require or use frontier AI models
“Customer support will not be using frontier models.”
Stuart: Single NVLink domains will soon scale to hundreds of GPUs
“And you also have a scale of architectures like NBL-L-Seventy-Two, which packs 72 GPUs inside a single NVLink domain, and soon this is going to extend to hundreds of GPUs.”
Autonomous robots will perform construction site grading within five years
“We see robots being able to do that in the next five years.”
Calacanis predicts AI platforms will settle with content owners over training data
“There'll be a settlement where they are going to be able to claim their content.”
Calacanis: Music industry rightsholders will win AI copyright lawsuits
“That's why I think the music industry is going to win, and some other places are going to win”
Defensive teams will run offensive AI agents to train defense systems
“There is no question that In the future, you'll have AI agents on offense run by the good guys to train the AI on defense run by the good guys.”
Gerstner: US government will take action against AI model distillation
“I think the US government is going to take steps against distillation, which they should do.”
Bavor predicts dedicated language model hardware in future phones and PCs
“Will you have a language model optimized hardware rolling out in, in our phones, in our computers? Yes.”
Brockman: Future voice AI will process input and output simultaneously
“The obvious thing that you want to accomplish is a model An AI that works much more like you and I do, right? That's able to process input at the same time it's processing output. And all of that is, of course, something that many people in this field are tryi…”
Kantrowitz: AI platforms will inevitably use personal interaction data for targeted ads
“So will AIs build an amazing sort of profile of you based off of all the personal data and then use that for ads? Most certainly.”
Lubershane: Islandable microgrids will deploy at megawatt EV charging depots
“The same expertise in in islandable large-scale power systems that are grid-connected but can take themselves offline, can provide peak capacity to the grid, can ensure that they're never drawing beyond a certain amount of capacity from the grid. Like, that sa…”
Google will launch a coding agent to compete with Codex
“Google doesn't yet have a product in this category, but I'm sure they're going to come after that.”
Perplexity will move AI inference to local devices to cut costs
“And now with progress in open source and local models and local chips, we're going to move some of the inference back to the local devices and bring down the cost even more.”
Dreyfus: Building 15 GW of AI factories yearly will require 750k tons of copper
“Data centers for a one gigawatt AI factory now, you need 50,000 tons of copper per gigawatt, and we're gonna start building 15 gigawatts of these things per year.”
Dreyfus: Standard electrification will trigger US power shortfalls without AI
“Now, if we simply just want to achieve our objectives to re-industrialize, re-shore, electrify, when I say electrify, that just means replacing your old gas boilers in these buildings with heat pumps, which every commercial building is doing. It means, you kno…”
Chernin: Space-based compute infrastructure will eventually become a reality
“So many smart people are trying to solve this task and bring compute to the space that why wouldn't I believe it will happen?”
Gerstner: SpaceX will use an innovative lockup structure for its IPO
“With respect to the lockup, I think this is the most innovative, and I think SpaceX is going to have a very similar innovation.”
Paruri: All-perovskite tandems could achieve 60% to 70% efficiency
“And over time, you can engineer out the silicon, and you're just doing perovskite on perovskite on perovskite tandems, You can get to 60 or 70% efficiency.”
Sacks predicts Washington regulatory push will eventually ban open-source AI
“In terms of the red capture agenda that you're seeing in Washington, I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models or open weight models.”
Plouffe: Expect halted data centers and statewide moratoriums in 3-5 years
“I'd imagine over the next three to five years, you'll see some stopped and some of those might be statewide moratoriums.”
Von Munch: Fusion startups will not see exits before reaching net facility gain
“Because I think the thing that's true is that you're not going to see an exit prior to that milestone.”
O'Driscoll: Software valuations will never reach 20x revenue multiples again
“Give me 30% growth, give me profits, give me a story that's got some future in it, and I'll get you back to five times. I'll never give you 20 times again. I won't fall for that one this time.”
Chamath predicts Spencer Pratt will win the Los Angeles mayoral election
“And Spencer Pratt, if he wins this election, which I think he's going to in Los Angeles, the reason is what Brad said.”
Coogan: Robotaxis will definitely have cameras monitoring passengers
“If you get in a robo taxi, there's definitely going to be a camera on you.”
Gurman: Federighi, O'Brien, Cue, and Joswiak Will Not Succeed Tim Cook
“It's for sure not going to be Craig. It's not going to be Deirdre. It's not going to be Eddie. It's not going to be Jaws.”
Levie: Enterprises cannot shift AI liability to providers like Anthropic
“I promise you, you're not going to be able to blame Anthropic when something goes wrong. And so if you can't blame Anthropic when something goes wrong, then at some point it doesn't really work to tell the company, like to tell your customer, well, That, that …”
O'Driscoll: AI labs will throttle subscriptions and hike prices for compute
“You're going to see some compute rationally, people are going to start allocating tokens to the highest, effectively the highest bidder. You're going to see a lot of throttling, like, you're going to see these plans, like, that's why they shot Sora. You're goi…”
Staniszewski: Fused voice-LLM models will reach hundreds of billions of parameters
“The thing that's, you know, like I hesitated on the question is, in a cascaded approach, you probably will not see like dramatic size changes. You inherently want the models to be quick and reliable. You want to orchestrate them in a smart way. In a fused appr…”
Andreessen: Autonomous AI agents will inevitably hire humans for tasks
“The agent hiring the people, which of course is going to happen, right? It's obviously going to happen.”
Andreessen: AI will never transform existing US K-12 public classrooms
“How are we going to apply AI in education? The answer is we're not because it's a literal government monopoly. It is never going to change the end, and there is nothing to do. By the way, you can create an entirely new school system. Like that's the one thing …”
Calacanis: ChatGPT consumer market share will drop well under 50%
“They're going to be well under 50% market share, and I think ChatGPT is going to have some big challenges there on the consumer side.”
Hurst: Digital Health Will Probably Face Regulatory Tightening Within 10 Years
“If anything, you know, it's sort of an open market right now, and probably the next 10 years we're going to see some tightening of it.”
Immerman: Elon Musk has 90%+ odds of becoming world's first trillionaire
“Well, if that market existed today, I think it would probably be like 90% plus odds on Elon. He's like pretty close at this point. Depending on, you know, where his companies go out he's certainly the favorite. So I would definitely bet on him.”
O'Driscoll: Oracle will lay off 20k to 30k employees over AI capex strain
“The only person that's even struggling slightly to cover their nut is Oracle, right? Because they had the weakest balance sheet and the least compelling use case, which is why at some point they're going to throw 20 or 30,000 people over the side to make the P…”
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