Prediction Didn’t hold up AI assessment confidence: 90% certainty 5/5 debate potential 3/5

Kimber: AI data centers will never offer flexible power load

Sheldon Kimber · The case for colocating data centers and generation · Feb 13, 2025 · at 28:49

Sheldon Kimber, CEO of Intersect Power, explains to Shayle Kann why massive CapEx for AI chips ($30B per gigawatt) prevents data centers from curtailing operations during expensive grid peak hours.

0:00 / 0:25exact quote · 25.8s
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“Every second you aren't running that at a hundred percent capacity factor is enormous amortized cost, right? So that it's just, it's one of those things where it's like, you'd be a fool to turn it down. You have to at some points because operationally, you know, there are things that you got to do for maintenance or, you know, changing the way you're, you know, running your model or whatever it is that, that, Constrains the data center operation itself, but because the power grid is too expensive? No, never.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

More from Sheldon Kimber

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kimber: Data centers are entering an era where grid connection is optional
“Generally speaking, I think we're moving into an era where grid connection is optional and should be optional. And that, you know, we should be able to, you know, operate these things fully off grid if necessary.”
Sheldon Kimber Feb 13, 2025 ▶ 23:28 The case for colocating data centers and generation
Opinion
Kimber: Hybrid renewables and gas engines beat new combined-cycle plants
“If you go build a CCGT right now for 2000 dollars KW and, you know, like you can't even find sort of like You know, labor unions and pipe fitters and whatnot that have ever even built these things in many cases, right? You know, it's going to take five, six ye…”
Sheldon Kimber Feb 13, 2025 ▶ 26:44 The case for colocating data centers and generation
Insight
Kimber: Edge LLMs trigger recursive queries, massively multiplying datacenter power demand
“Every smaller distilled LLM that is power efficient doing inference is going to launch thousands of queries to bigger, more capable models that can actually reason their way through buying something on Amazon and reason. So it's almost like increasing the worl…”
Sheldon Kimber Feb 13, 2025 ▶ 43:13 The case for colocating data centers and generation
Prediction Held up
Kimber: AI inference will ultimately draw far more power than training
“I think now what we're seeing is that inference in the aggregate is actually probably a much larger draw than the training in the long run.”
Sheldon Kimber Feb 13, 2025 ▶ 44:04 The case for colocating data centers and generation
Disclosure
Kimber: Intersect pivoted clean power assets from hydrogen to AI
“We thought maybe hydrogen would be first because of the supply side supports under the IRA. The demand just didn't materialize, and now all of a sudden, AI has just swept up all of the assets that we developed for, you know, behind the meter And co-located loa…”
Sheldon Kimber Feb 13, 2025 ▶ 19:32 The case for colocating data centers and generation
Assertion Open · timeframe Feb 2028
Kimber: Co-located renewables can power Texas data centers carbon-free 75%–80% of the year
“75 to 80% of the hours of the year, we can run fully carbon free with, you know, wind, solar, and batteries all on the same site. And then, you know, 20%, maybe a little over 20% of the time, we need to have some gas or we need to use the grid.”
Sheldon Kimber Feb 13, 2025 ▶ 25:58 The case for colocating data centers and generation
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