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Venture capital, startups and investing, on tape.

Every prediction, opinion and bold claim from Catalyst: extracted from the transcript, verified against the tape, checked against cited public sources, playable at the exact moment it was said.

3,906 statements on the ledger →
1,873assessments with sources → 259episodes (so far) →

2,090 assertions618 insights606 predictions418 opinions168 disclosures6 what-ifs

predictions → 72 held up 15 didn’t hold up 6 partly held up
assertions → 1,507 supported 94 contradicted 179 partly supported
Star Treatment Does prominence change the questions? Every guest, plotted. prominence vs. host pushback Supercuts Didn’t hold up · Held up · Said with certainty exact-quote reels The Argument Index Debate potential by speaker, and the companies with the most bearish calls. debate potential, ranked The Numbers Museum Every figure ever claimed, checked where possible. 1,259 figures Entities Every company, fund and idea the show has opinions about, sources attached. 5,602 on the record The Calls Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. 94 open The Pulse What the Valley talks about, year by year, since 2021. who said it first The Wisdom Wall The lessons worth keeping. No fortune cookies. 618 insights The Graph Six years of people, companies and ideas as one map. explore connections Changed Positions Same person, opposite position. Both tapes, side by side. 0 on record Straight Answers Who answers the question asked, measured. Every moment timestamped and playable. 0 questions not answered directly Speaking Style Measured from raw, unedited recordings only. 0 speakers scored

Recently on the ledger full ledger →

Opinion
Rountree: Chaos Industries Has Worse Technology but Superior Commercial Execution
“There's, you know, a much better funded company incubated by ABC called Chaos Industries, which I personally think has worse technology, but they're doing a lot better because they've productized this, they're very good at selling it, they're very good at mark…”
Ian Rountree Jan 8, 2026 ▶ 23:48 The VC case for 'full stack deeptech'
Opinion
Waters: US energy storage success requires partnering with Chinese companies
“The only way we're going to get anywhere in the U.S. Market with storage is by partnering with the Chinese.”
Jeff Waters Apr 23, 2025 ▶ 1:46 What’s next for the battery storage boom? [partner content]
Opinion
Roberts: The commercial nuclear industry is historically corrupt and incompetent
“What I don't want is the sort of generalized hype around SMRs to translate into just yet another round of a large and historically Corrupt and incompetent industry getting another giant round of subsidies dumped on its head for ultimately nothing, which is wha…”
David Roberts Nov 3, 2023 ▶ 36:03 The Volts crossover episode
Assertion Supported
Hertz-Shargel: Bitcoin mining raises Texas power bills by $1.8B annually
“So collectively, it's 1.8 billion conservatively per year. And that's sort of a run rate, I would say. And that represents around a five percent increase in costs of Texans, of, you know non-Bitcoin mining consumers. And that, that's across all the different s…”
Ben Hertz-Shargel May 11, 2023 ▶ 17:33 The great Bitcoin energy debate
Opinion
House: Direct air capture to synthetic fuel is a staggering waste of capital
“Absurd, absurd, totally absurd technology that will cost, that is the, that is a staggering waste of human brain cells and capital and resources. And it's, and we should be spending at, we should always be working on the most effective, the best marginal use o…”
Kurt House Apr 21, 2022 ▶ 44:58 The great rush for battery metals
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jenkins: Europe can viably eliminate 100% of Russian gas by winter 2022
“Europe's current plan is to cut natural gas use by about two thirds before this winter. Can they actually go a hundred percent? Can they cut if they needed to, or if they needed to make a credible threat on the global stage to Putin that we will cut our gas us…”
Jesse Jenkins Mar 31, 2022 ▶ 31:27 Can Europe quit Russian fossil fuel by next winter?

How the calls resolved the full record →

Assertion Supported
Kann: 10 gigatons of carbon removal at $100/ton creates a $1T market
“We need, you know, maybe 10 gigatons of carbon removals By mid-century. 10 gigatons is ten billion tons. At a hundred dollars a ton, that's a trillion dollar market.”
Shayle Kann Mar 24, 2022 ▶ 30:34 Will this carbon market boom be different?
Assertion Contradicted
Black: Fission, fusion, and fracking were all invented in New Mexico
“Fission, fusion, and fracking were all invented in New Mexico.”
Rob Black Nov 18, 2025 ▶ 6:00 New Mexico proves America can still build [partner content]
Assertion Supported
Kann: Nitrous Oxide Is the Third-Largest Global Greenhouse Gas Source
“Nitrous oxide emissions, which is a powerful greenhouse gas, third, third largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the world behind the CO two and methane.”
Shayle Kann Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 13:29 The climate-ag grab bag
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Hill: 2023 renewable installations will drop significantly below 2022 levels
“We'll see a much lower install capacity in twenty-twenty-three of renewables than in twenty-twenty-two, or than what was projected due to supply chain constraints.”
Marion Hill Dec 13, 2022 ▶ 5:08 The trends shaping the energy transition [partner content]

Open predictions the full timeline →

109days Eliahu-Ontiveros: Gas turbine orders will peak this year Jeremy Eliahu-Ontiveros · prediction date: 2026-12-31 109days China is on track to export 12 million cars this year Michael Dunne · prediction date: 2026-12-31 109days Fulgham: Solar relative growth may slow in 2026 despite record absolute gains Nick Fulgham · prediction date: 2026-12-31 109days Emerald and NVIDIA to deploy 100MW power-flexible AI factory in 2026 Varun Sivaram · prediction date: 2026-12-31

Track records all people →

Ordered by full support rate, then by supported count. Minimum three resolved. Partly supported claims count as resolved but not as fully supported, same as everywhere on the ledger.

PersonEpsStatementsSupportedPartly supportedContradictedFull support rate
Tyler Norris 3 27 19 0 0 100%
Lara Pierpoint 12 24 14 0 0 100%
Jesse Jenkins 2 30 13 0 0 100%
TP Huang (TP Wang) 1 15 11 0 0 100%
Tim Mills 1 15 11 0 0 100%
Dr. Jen Shafer (Jen Schaefer) 1 14 10 0 0 100%
John Baumgartner 1 19 10 0 0 100%
Nick Woolley 1 15 9 0 0 100%

From the Wisdom Wall all quotes →

“two-thirds of the expenditures they're making today across utilities are non-negotiable, and it's, Has nothing to do with growth, right? All that stuff would be happening even if the data center,…”

“the Chinese are starved for profits, and when I talk to the Chinese manufacturers, they're far less interested in solving America's affordability program and far more interested in saying, how can we…”

“We are actually in a resource that gives us free, extremely good convective cooling, and, and that's huge, because it, it essentially lets you eliminate the entire cost structure of the data center.…”
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