The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 606 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 124 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Jenkins: Europe can viably eliminate 100% of Russian gas by winter 2022
“Europe's current plan is to cut natural gas use by about two thirds before this winter.
Can they actually go a hundred percent?
Can they cut if they needed to, or if they needed to make a credible threat on the global stage to Putin that we will cut our gas us…”
Tillis predicts utility rates will spike due to Biden retiring generation assets
“And now that the demand's going up, if we can't get these projects back online, I do want people to understand why some of these rates have spiked, and they will have spiked because this administration decided to take those generation assets offline.”
Chinese automakers will likely acquire vulnerable legacy brands like Nissan and Stellantis
“One is Nissan, and the other is Stellantis, the group that owns, you know, Fiat, and Maserati, and Jeep, and Chrysler brands. Those two are the most vulnerable, so what will happen is either they'll joint venture with the Chinese And eventually be taken over b…”
Sridhar: AI revolution cannot be powered without natural gas
“And without natural gas, we are not going to be able to power the AI revolution. That's a fact.”
Behind-the-meter nuclear data centers have no credible case for decades
“I don't think there's a credible argument for behind the meter nuclear at a data center in the near future. And by near future, I mean, The next couple of decades.”
Huang: Nissan and Mitsubishi might not exist in 10 years
“Like, who knows? In 10 years, there might not be a Nissan out there. There might not be a Mitsubishi.”
Faruqi: Utilities that fail to update rate structures will go bankrupt
“And if they don't change those utilities that don't change them, they'll go bankrupt.”
Shah: Existing grid capacity can handle load growth through 2034–2035
“The amount of load growth that we can handle, within the actual system that we've already paid for is gargantuan. It can easily take us through probably 2034, 20 35, right? Which, by which time we think nuclear will be more cost effective, enhanced geothermal …”
Jenkins: IRA Will Cut U.S. Emissions by One Gigaton in 2030
“So our top line finding from the repeat project analysis of the bill is that it will cut annual U.S. Greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 by an additional one, roughly one billion metric tons below the current policy baseline. So an additional billion tons of emis…”
Kann: Electric vehicles will never discharge to the grid at scale
“I do not think we'll ever see vehicles discharging into the grid at scale.”
Lipman: Most lab-grown meat startups will fail to reach commercial scale
“I'm anticipating that the vast majority will not be able to reach commercial scale and not be able to reach the market, so we'll either see a bunch of consolidation or a bunch of dead companies in the wake of whatever reckoning may be coming.”
Lubershain: Electricity rates will rise for most people in coming years
“Data centers are absolutely going to be pushing up rates, and other factors, right, in the supply chain. Rates are going up for most people in most places, I think, in the years to come.”
Janous: US data center constraints will persist through 2030 and beyond
“All the stuff we thought we were going to build in this country, or thought we could build, a lot of that's not going to get built, because of all the things we've just been talking about. Like, I think that, and this problem is going to persist for the forese…”
Janous: Vast majority of computation will remain in 100MW+ data centers
“I still believe that the vast majority of the computation is going to be done in large data centers. Large being defined as hundred megawatts or more in my world.”
Hade: C&I battery storage will be fastest-growing storage sector by rate
“I think, you know, for reasons we'll talk about, there are some compelling reasons to believe that CNI over the next three to five years is going to be the fastest growing sector of the market.
[1717] Shayle Kann: Ooh, that's an ambitious, well, I guess from a…”
Hade: AI tooling will slash C&I battery transaction costs 90% in three years
“So my best guess is, you know, over the next three years, the transaction cost bucket will go from an average of about 200 dollars a kilowatt hour to maybe 20 dollars a kilowatt hour. I think there's going to be a 90% reduction in the cost in sort of transacti…”
Quantum advantage over classical systems is three to four years away
“As quantum computing capability follows the trajectory that most people believe it's on, we're about three to four years away from the rolling out of systems that will be able to have performance gains that will lead any scientist or engineer or researcher to …”
Quantum algorithms are a bigger ten-year hurdle than hardware
“The algorithmic issue right now is probably the greater hill to climb in terms of general applicability of quantum systems in the next decade.”
Eliahu-Ontiveros: Nvidia balance sheet support will unlock neocloud growth in 2H 2026
“I expect, you know, second half of 20 seconds, you'll see NeoCloud sort of growth be unlocked much more through the actions of NVIDIA as they provide their volunteer support.”
Eliahu-Ontiveros: Massive AI data center campuses will concentrate in West Texas
“I think the way big data centers, big data center campuses are going to look like a few years from now, again, like, obviously the scenario is we keep adding tens of gigawatts per year that keeps growing, so, you know, we're in this AI scenario. I'm, you know,…”
Eliahu-Ontiveros: Gas turbine orders will peak this year
“We think gas turbine orders are going to pick this year.”
Lubershane: Retail electricity prices will outpace inflation, driving broader inflation
“I have a very high degree of confidence that moving forward, because as you said, all this stuff is, is leading indicators prices are going to rise faster than inflation overall, and because electricity is sort of a Foundational good for the economy. They'll a…”
Lubershane: Multi-year data center growth will force large-scale off-grid power adoption
“And if this data center boom continues for longer than the next three to five years, if it's really a robust trend that is gonna, you know, be, Decade plus, you know, for the foreseeable future, then I don't see any other option besides going to something like…”
Chinese automakers will inevitably enter the US market via JVs or acquisitions
“Potentially, but I think realistically it's like gravity or water. The Chinese are going to find a way in and it may be by acquiring Stellantis or a Nissan or a plant inside or rebadging. It's a leap motor, but it's badged a Dodge and people start to show.”
Fulgham: Structural fossil generation declines in India will happen closer to 2030
“But we do expect that it will still take a few more years for that trend to really be structural. So it'll be closer to 2030, where we'll be seeing normal years of demand growth and falls in fossil generation at the same time in India.”
Fulgham: China faces significant coal generator overcapacity for years
“China is very much moving into an, into a time where they will, for most of the year, there will be significant overcapacity of coal coal generators as well. So yeah, a big change in the role that China is using coal. And that will be a feature for years to co…”
Fulgham: India's coal generation will peak 3 to 4 times lower than China's
“And that means we think that India is going to top out or peak its coal generation, both in absolute terms and per capita at a level that's three to maybe even four times lower than where China's peak was.”
Fulgham: India may meet all new power demand with clean energy by 2030–2035
“Where we could even see as soon as 2030, that structural point where all of the new demand is already met by clean power sources. And that means that not just fossil generation, but also coal generation would not need to grow beyond that. Now it might not be e…”
Panthalassa expects lower AI chip failure rates at sea than on land
“In many cases, we believe that the reliability of the chips, the failure rates will actually be lower on our platform because we can provide much colder cooling temperatures than is typical on land, and we have no oxygen. We eliminate the oxygen from the paylo…”
Bulk of AI energy consumption will power long-running background processes
“There's a whole class of like super latency sensitive applications where you wouldn't want to use us. But that's not where the bulk of energy will be going. The bulk of energy will be going to very long running processes that are churning, churning, churning t…”
Pacific Fusion on track to achieve net facility gain by 2030
“And a number of companies are saying they'll do that in the next couple years. We're on track to do that by 2030.”
Linville: European fertilizer production may never return to 100% capacity
“And unfortunately at this point in time, we're sitting in 20, 26. I don't know that we will ever see a hundred percent in Europe again.”
Linville: Global Fertilizer Prices to Stay Above Average Through Spring 2027
“And ultimately speaking, we could see some dips here and there, but I think the entire structure of this marketplace stays higher priced than average, probably through at least spring of 27.”
Vahdat: AI footprint will favor many medium data centers over gigawatt hubs
“It'll really come down to geographic locality and probably a medium number of medium-sized data centers. Sorry for the whatever lack of precision there, but medium number of medium-sized data centers augmented with a small number of large data centers.”
AI token costs will asymptotically approach the fundamental cost of power
“I think the answer will increasingly become yes in the future as the cost of inference, the cost of token generation asymptotically approaches the cost of power, which is the only real operational expense input into the Into the cost of intelligence generation…”
Nolan: Advanced reactors will surprise on deployment speed for AI demand
“We think that they're going to surprise everyone in their deployment speed and scale up, and, you know, just looking at the landscape of energy demand in the U.S. We haven't grown the grid for decades and yet now we have this huge surge of demand for data cent…”
Nolan: General Matter will displace adversarial nuclear imports by 2030
“Building enough capacity there to satisfy HALU through the next decade, and then enough LEU capacity to displace adversarial imports into the US. And so that's the scale of it. That's where we're doing it. Timeline is, you know, Before end of decade.”
McAvoy: ERCOT battery storage prices will rebound within two years
“And so we see cyclically in another couple of years, the prices will start to come back in ERCOT and people will start to make money again.”
Kann: 300 MW data centers have lower cost per FLOP than edge
“My guess is, you know, your 300 megawatt data center on a fully loaded levelized cost of flop is just gonna be cheaper.”
Elder: Substantial AI model training will happen in space within 30 years
“In 20 years or 30 years, there's gonna be a lot of AI models being trained in particular in space”
Araque: Super-hot geothermal will achieve $50 to $100 per MWh globally
“The higher outputs will be a big part of bringing those LCOEs down, and we see a hundred dollars per megawatt hour at the meter, no matter where you are in the world. Now, that includes the shallow and the deep systems. If you look specifically at the shallow …”
Araque: Quaise will achieve 25-30 MW EGS flow test by end of 2026
“For us in particular, the project in Oregon gets that flow test by the end of this year. By the end of twenty-twenty-six, Quaze has a commercial-grade Injector producer per EGS system producing 25 to 30 megawatt equivalent electric output from a flow test.”
Araque: Quaise will run first supercritical geothermal flow test by 2028
“From there in twenty-twenty-eight, so two years later, we'll do another version of that, that is not at three miles, but a little bit deeper and above the 400 degrees Celsius or so. We're basically walking up the temperatures of that site to unlock those outpu…”
Kann rejects Musk's claim that orbital data centers will be cheapest soon
“Because I think that orbital data, I mean, Elon says he thinks that they will be the cheapest way to get new compute in, like, three to five years. I do not think that is possible. Not in that time period.”
Kann predicts US electricity prices will rise over the next three years
“But I could tell you, I think over the next three years, you know, electricity prices are probably going up, not down.”
Roberts predicts recycled minerals will become cheaper than mined within 20 years
“I would just say that my, I guess my prediction would be that in 10 years, maybe or in 20, that just a unit of critical minerals drawn from recycling will be cheaper than a unit of
Mind.
I think.
I think.
Eventually.
Like, I think it will end up being our prim…”
Baglino: Solid-State Transformers Will Replace Passive Ones
“I believe that solid-stage transformers are going to replace passive ones.”
Baglino: Data center rack voltages will reach 800V+ with SST architecture
“Now the backplane voltage of the racks will be 800 volts or even higher. And then you can use a SST based solution to go from medium voltage, 34 KV all the way to 800 volts with no gray space rooms with UPSs and power distribution panels and anything like that…”