Linville: Global Fertilizer Prices to Stay Above Average Through Spring 2027
Josh Linville · Inside the global fertilizer crunch · May 14, 2026 · at 24:15
Josh Linville, fertilizer expert at StoneX, discusses the medium-term market impact of Middle Eastern disruptions and supply constraints with Shayle Kann.
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“And ultimately speaking, we could see some dips here and there, but I think the entire structure of this marketplace stays higher priced than average, probably through at least spring of 27.”
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“And unfortunately at this point in time, we're sitting in 20, 26. I don't know that we will ever see a hundred percent in Europe again.”
Linville: North America is self-sufficient across major fertilizers except urea
“We are self-sufficient on potash. From a Canadian standpoint, they are the biggest producer and exporter in the world. We are mostly self-sufficient on phosphate as the spring season has shown. UAN and anhydrous, both nitrogen products, we produce almost all t…”
Linville: Buyers will renege on urea contracts if Strait reopens in off-season
“And I think a lot of the countries around the world will do exactly that. Just sit there and throw their hands in the air and say, I'm reneging on my purchase because I don't need it right now.”
Linville: Prolonged Hormuz closure through autumn will trigger global fertilizer rationing
“If we get to the fourth of July and the straight is still closed, if we start up with my youngest is a freshman high school, be a sophomore in the fall. If he goes back to school in the fall and the straight is still closed, we have lost so much supply out the…”
Linville: Government market interventions and export duties worsen fertilizer shortages
“The more governments start to play a role in these free markets, the worse it gets. We've seen it with India with the way that they shield their farmers from global prices. We see it with Egypt putting a 90 dollar ton export duty on their nitrogen products.”
Linville: Nitrogen and phosphate markets were already tight before Hormuz disruption
“The problem is, if you go back to January one, nitrogen markets and phosphate markets were already dealing with supply tightness because of European production rates, because of a lack of Chinese exports, because the ongoing Russian-Ukraine war.”