The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Andy Lubershane (10)Shayle Kann (9)Sam Jaffe (6)Jesse Jenkins (6)Michael Dunne (4)Kurt Kelty (4)Jeff Waters (4)Varun Sivaram (3)Tim Hade (3)Richard Wang (3)Matthew Sachs (3)Julian Dumoulin-Smith (3)
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Next up (94)
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
Emerald and NVIDIA to deploy 100MW power-flexible AI factory in 2026
“I think later this year, as you know, Emerald and NVIDIA and some other partners, Digital BLT, Epri, Dominion, and PJM, we will put together the world's first, ah, A hundred megawatt commercial scale AI factory that is truly power flexible. It's custom designe…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Araque: Quaise will achieve 25-30 MW EGS flow test by end of 2026
“For us in particular, the project in Oregon gets that flow test by the end of this year. By the end of twenty-twenty-six, Quaze has a commercial-grade Injector producer per EGS system producing 25 to 30 megawatt equivalent electric output from a flow test.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Kann predicts US energy startup funding will boom and triple in 2026
“So I think we're going to see, this is going to be a return to a boom, this is my prediction right now, where, yeah, we were at two billion last year, down from eight billion in twenty-twenty-two. I don't know that we get back to eight, but like, Will it tripl…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
Dumoulin-Smith: Solar leasing volume will rise in 2026 despite market contraction
“20, 26 is going to be, again, I would call it extraordinarily dynamic in a market which you could argue the market itself is going to decline in absolute terms. And yet for the incumbent leasing companies, arguably their volumes on a discrete basis are going t…”
112 days left 2027-01-03
Tillis predicts Congress will fail to pass critical mineral legislation this year
“I just don't see it as a realistic, it's just a function of the capacity of the Congress in this Congress, and the fact that it's an election year. So, I just think if I were advising a client on it, other than doing the missionary work and getting people boug…”
196 days left 2027-03-28
Lubbershane: Surging demand and supply constraints will increase wholesale electricity prices
“Basic economics, right? We're seeing demand rise really quickly. We're seeing constraints on supply. All else equal, I think that means we're going to see increases in wholesale electricity prices in general. I think if you had to make a bet one way or the oth…”
222 days left 2027-04-23
LFP battery pricing could drop to $25 per kWh within years
“There's a decent likelihood we'll continue to see pricing go down. You know, I've heard some claims that you could see it go down as far as, you know, from 50 dollars down to even 25 dollars over the course of the next couple of years. I think it's realistic t…”
222 days left 2027-04-23
222 days left 2027-04-23
281 days left 2027-06-21
474 days left 2027-12-31
564 days left 2028-03-30
701 days left 2028-08-14
Mossberg: Sodium-ion cell prices will drop ~$20/kWh over next 2–3 years
“We can see pretty clearly for the next two years, because we have quotes from both from raw material suppliers and from cell suppliers that take the, you know, like the price is falling by about 20 dollars per kilowatt hour over the next two, two-ish years, tw…”
764 days left 2028-10-16
797 days left 2028-11-18
840 days left 2028-12-31
Araque: Quaise will run first supercritical geothermal flow test by 2028
“From there in twenty-twenty-eight, so two years later, we'll do another version of that, that is not at three miles, but a little bit deeper and above the 400 degrees Celsius or so. We're basically walking up the temperatures of that site to unlock those outpu…”
840 days left 2028-12-31
840 days left 2028-12-31
896 days left 2029-02-25
982 days left 2029-05-22
1051 days left 2029-07-30
Hade: AI tooling will slash C&I battery transaction costs 90% in three years
“So my best guess is, you know, over the next three years, the transaction cost bucket will go from an average of about 200 dollars a kilowatt hour to maybe 20 dollars a kilowatt hour. I think there's going to be a 90% reduction in the cost in sort of transacti…”
1134 days left 2029-10-21
1205 days left 2029-12-31
Nolan: General Matter will displace adversarial nuclear imports by 2030
“Building enough capacity there to satisfy HALU through the next decade, and then enough LEU capacity to displace adversarial imports into the US. And so that's the scale of it. That's where we're doing it. Timeline is, you know, Before end of decade.”
1205 days left 2029-12-31
1206 days left 2030-01-01
1273 days left 2030-03-09
1382 days left 2030-06-26
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Chinese sodium-ion prices will undercut LFP by 2030, Mossberg predicts
“From the quotes and what we're hearing from the suppliers, not just cells, but also materials, we see a really low-risk pathway to the crossover point on price with LFP coming somewhere between twenty-twenty-eight and twenty-thirty out of China.”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Loo: 80% of global fleet will still burn fossil fuels in 2030
“If you just look at the numbers and you look at how many vessels are on the water today which is 65,000, and how 80% of them are going to be still on fossil fuel by twenty-thirty, and probably about 30% in twenty-fifty, they need to decarbonize as well.”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Kann: US solar installations will top 100 GW annually by 2030
“We'll do maybe 30 to 35 gigawatts of solar total this year, and according to the repeat project, we may hit almost 50 gigawatts by twenty-twenty-five or twenty-twenty-six. By the end of the decade, we'll be doing over a hundred gigawatts a year, potentially we…”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Jenkins: IRA Will Cut U.S. Emissions by One Gigaton in 2030
“So our top line finding from the repeat project analysis of the bill is that it will cut annual U.S. Greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 by an additional one, roughly one billion metric tons below the current policy baseline. So an additional billion tons of emis…”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Jenkins: IRA Will Drive $200B+ Investment Into Energy Communities by 2030
“Our estimates are that that provision and a few others sprinkled throughout the bill that will help drive investment into energy communities will support several hundred billion dollars, probably at least two hundred billion dollars of investment in energy com…”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Jaffe: Lithium metal batteries will hit 150 GWh by 2030, mostly non-automotive
“I think that lithium metal batteries are gonna result, are gonna be about a 150 gigawatt hour market by the end of the decade, but they're gonna be in other things outside of cars, mostly.
They'll just start to be appearing in cars at the end of the decade.”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Bataille: Green electricity will displace blue hydrogen for fertilizer past 2030
“Now, for ammonia, there may in the short run be an argument for using blue hydrogen to make, you know, to make ammonia for fertilizers, but in the long haul, like past 20, 30, really, You know, the cost of electrolyzers and the cost of solar, you would just ma…”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Janous: Terrestrial data centers will remain the vast majority through 2030
“I just look at the pie of total data centers by 20 30 and pick your date in the future. I'm a big believer of terrestrial data centers are still going to be, like, the vast majority of the way we build data centers. Like, I just don't, I'm not sure how much it…”
1626 days left 2031-02-25
1781 days left 2031-07-30
Hade: C&I battery storage will be fastest-growing storage sector by rate
“I think, you know, for reasons we'll talk about, there are some compelling reasons to believe that CNI over the next three to five years is going to be the fastest growing sector of the market.
[1717] Shayle Kann: Ooh, that's an ambitious, well, I guess from a…”
1781 days left 2031-07-30
Hade: C&I battery installation costs will halve to $100/kWh in five years
“And then on the installation cost side of things, it's a little bit more difficult to predict, but I think we're probably looking at like having that over the next five years. So going from 200 dollars a kilowatt hour to a hundred dollars a kilowatt hour.”
1935 days left 2031-12-31
2022 days left 2032-03-27
Norris: AI data centers could drive 44% of US electricity load growth
“Yeah, I think what really opened our eyes were some of these forecasts suggesting that AI specialized data centers are going to be likely the single largest driver of U.S. Electricity load growth for the next five to seven years, with some numbers suggesting a…”
2138 days left 2032-07-21
Jaffe: Lithium prices will fall but remain elevated for a decade
“I do expect lithium pricing will decline. It's not going to stay in the stratosphere where it is now. And I think that it's going to Return. It, the, I think expensive lithium is going to be sticky. It's going to be with us for the next decade. In terms of whe…”
2138 days left 2032-07-21
2153 days left 2032-08-05
Jenkins: IRA will redirect EV supply chain capital to North America
“What this bill is going to do is make sure a vast majority of that investment is going to go into the United States, North America, and other free trade agreement countries. And so I think we're going to see a big reorientation of the supply chain”
2153 days left 2032-08-05
2208 days left 2032-09-29
2301 days left 2032-12-31
First advanced nuclear reactor will supply US grid power by 2032
“I'm pretty bad at making predictions, but I would be surprised if by 20 32 we haven't seen Real new advanced reactor electrons on the grid. There may not be many, and it'll probably be just one reactor but it'll shortly thereafter be followed by, you know, a s…”
2301 days left 2032-12-31
Garabedian: Electric Hydrogen will beat fossil hydrogen costs by early 2030s
“Now, if you take our technology roadmap a little further out, and you think about scale and also improvements we have in our, coming in our technology, along with what we expect to see in terms of continued cost reduction in wind and solar, we think we can get…”
2301 days left 2032-12-31
2327 days left 2033-01-26
Sachs: Classic behind-the-meter demand response will dominate DERs for 5-10 years
“I think if you looked forward five, 10 years, you might start to see that, that split start to break down, although kind of going back to what I said before, I think until we really work out this injection piece, that, that demand response, classic demand resp…”
2495 days left 2033-07-13
2509 days left 2033-07-27
2523 days left 2033-08-10
Vijendran: Commercial space solar will take at least a decade with moonshot funding
“We're talking about a decade. Probably at the minimum, if there's a real push to make this happen, a moonshot like approach, putting a substantial amount of funding over that amount of time to do the R and D as well as the demos that you have to do along the w…”
2558 days left 2033-09-14
2666 days left 2033-12-31
2666 days left 2033-12-31
Lubbershane: Utilities will demand gigawatts of multi-day storage by the early 2030s
“Utilities are starting to see that, yes, it's very difficult to get, you know, a gigawatt of multi-day storage today, but in a few years, and certainly by the early twenty-thirties, they're going to want gigawatts of multi-day storage as a compliment to their …”
2681 days left 2034-01-15
2816 days left 2034-05-30
2830 days left 2034-06-13
3031 days left 2034-12-31
Lubershain: New nuclear power will not scale in US until 2035+
“I don't think we're gonna see, we might see a little bit, you know, in the 2030, early 20 thirties time frame, but I think for the most part we're talking 2035 and beyond when we, when we'd actually have new nuclear power at scale coming online.”
3032 days left 2035-01-01
3212 days left 2035-06-30
Kugelmass: Advanced chemistry nuclear reactors will not deploy until mid-2030s
“The ones that are most realistic, even by their own admission, by the way, to be built in the next five to 10 years, are the ones that use the traditional proven reactor technology and don't introduce some sort of physics chemistry or material science innovati…”
3396 days left 2035-12-31
80% of AI inference compute will move to the edge by 2035
“So I would say that we could be getting 80% of our compute done locally and leaving 20% of the heavy lifting or the more esoteric, the more corner case compute for the data center cloud. That is, of course, excluding the training. The training will Continue to…”
3396 days left 2035-12-31
3396 days left 2035-12-31
3425 days left 2036-01-29
McGinnis: US will deploy tens of gigawatts of plug-in DERs by 2036
“Again, if you look to Germany, like, doing a gigawatt in a handful of years in what is a much smaller, you know, country than ours, it wouldn't shock me to see tens of gigawatts deployed in the next five to 10 years in the US where that's actually making a mea…”
4062 days left 2037-10-27
4857 days left 2039-12-31
7105 days left 2046-02-25
Roberts predicts recycled minerals will become cheaper than mined within 20 years
“I would just say that my, I guess my prediction would be that in 10 years, maybe or in 20, that just a unit of critical minerals drawn from recycling will be cheaper than a unit of
Mind.
I think.
I think.
Eventually.
Like, I think it will end up being our prim…”
8875 days left 2050-12-31
Grunwald: Global Food Production Needs 6 Quadrillion More Calories by 2050
“You know, we're probably at this point gonna need about six quadrillion more calories by twenty-fifty which is, you know, I like to say it's like a dozen Olive Garden breadsticks every day for every human being on Earth. That's extra. We're gonna have to grow.”
8875 days left 2050-12-31
8875 days left 2050-12-31
Friedmann: Maritime shipping will use a mix of methanol and ammonia by 2050
“But in twenty-fifty, I think we're going to end up with a blend of both, in part because we're starting already with methanol. People are making investments in methanol ships and methanol bunkering because they want to decarbonize rapidly by twenty-thirty. And…”
8875 days left 2050-12-31
Heavy industry will represent a majority of global emissions by 2050
“These hard to abate sectors represent about a third of global emissions today. And they're the ones, you know, as all the listeners know, this is where the energy transition has not started. And so on current course in speed, this will be a majority of humanit…”
8875 days left 2050-12-31
Mukhopadhyay: Fleet turnover caps 2050 hydrogen aircraft penetration at 6% to 12%
“And so our projections suggest that even though hydrogen aircraft could service a third of passenger aviation, the actual market penetration is probably going to be more like six to 12% by 20 50. Because of that slow fleet turnover rate.”
8875 days left 2050-12-31
8875 days left 2050-12-31
9338 days left 2052-04-07
9758 days left 2053-06-01
10121 days left 2054-05-30
Lubbershane: Electricity will remain more cost-effective than biofuels or hydrogen
“Even as the cost of clean electricity increases over the coming decade or two or three, I think electricity will still look cost effective as a fuel, like the primary, you know, the energy input relative to things like biofuels or clean hydrogen, perhaps some …”
16180 days left 2070-12-31
16657 days left 2072-04-21
House: Reaching a fully circular battery economy will take 50 years
“We can achieve 90, 98, 99% recycling rates on these, on, on these batteries, and over time, we'll get to the point where we do not have to mine them which is really, really exciting. But that will take more than a generation, unfortunately. We need a lot more …”
Closed calls (60+) the full record →
Grunwald: Feeding 2050 Population Needs Two Indias' Worth of New Land
“If, even if we continue to increase farm yields at the same rate they've increased throughout the Green Revolution we're gonna need another two India's worth of land, which essentially means, you know, gonna bye-bye Amazon and Congo rainforests, you know, very…”
Lubershain: Global AC demand will add another US power sector by 2050
“Depending on what forecast you look at in a sort of business as usual technology scenario, that means we're on track to add, roughly speaking, another whole U.S. Electricity sector worth of electricity demand globally for this new air conditioning demand by ar…”
Mukhopadhyay: Decarbonizing 2050 aviation requires today's entire global renewable energy output
“In 2050, the amount of electricity that would be required to decarbonize aviation is the entire renewable energy production today. So all of the energy, renewable energy that is produced today could be used up in aviation alone.”
Larson: IRA will cut US power emissions to ~500M tons by mid-2030s
“With our IRA analysis, we see... Power sector CO two emissions dropping potentially quite a large amount, like from like the one and a half billion tons or so from last year. Down to maybe half a billion tons, even lower in some instances, depending on the eco…”
Friedmann: Distributed ammonia production will emerge over the next decade
“If you have distributed hydrogen production, you could very well have distributed ammonia production. And so these kinds of things are opportunities that we're going to see emerge over the next decade, and I'm excited to see that technology come to the field.”
Beard: Geothermal will scale via shallow sedimentary basins before deep rock
“That I think is how geothermal or geothermal anywhere will roll out in the next decade, is you've got teams that are in sedimentary basins right now, like In South Texas, right? They're trying geothermal anywhere projects in places where they can get to heat i…”
Hawkins: Most Data Centers Are Moving to Closed-Loop Cooling
“Frankly, most of the industry is going that way.”
Lubershane: Islandable microgrids will deploy at megawatt EV charging depots
“The same expertise in in islandable large-scale power systems that are grid-connected but can take themselves offline, can provide peak capacity to the grid, can ensure that they're never drawing beyond a certain amount of capacity from the grid. Like, that sa…”
Von Munch: Fusion startups will not see exits before reaching net facility gain
“Because I think the thing that's true is that you're not going to see an exit prior to that milestone.”
Kann: On-grid, off-grid, edge, and space data centers will probably be built
“Massive data centers on the grid, massive data centers off-grid, small data centers on the edge, huge data center clusters in space. Each of these might get built. Actually, each of them probably will get built”
Kann predicts US data center capacity will double by 2030.
“I'm on the oversight here. I'm betting that there will be more than 20 gigawatts of new data center capacity in the United States by then.”
Corbeau: LOHC hydrogen transport will cost $2.50 to $4 per kg by 2030
“So, you know, when I was talking about, you know, the high range of liquid hydrogen by 2030, which is above seven dollars per kilogram you know, the high range for liquid organic hydrogen carriers would be around four dollars per kilogram. So this is much lowe…”
Zindler: Global Solar Installs Could Near 650 GW Annually by 2030
“We're talking about another potentially close to doubling of installation per year by the end of this decade, something like the 600 to 650 gigawatts, something like that range.”
Jenny Chase: Solar will be built for green hydrogen production by 2030
“And that's even before you start thinking about, are we going to build solar to make hydrogen? And I suspect that by 2030 we are, just because we've got no idea how else to manage the problems of intermittency and how to decarbonize steel and fertilizer.”
Sridhar: Edge AI inference data centers will require 5 to 30 megawatts
“The inference data centers for AI, unlike the CPU data centers of today that are one to 10 megawatts, typically on the edge, are going to be Somewhere between five to 30 megawatts on the edge.”
Sridhar: Data centers will shift to 800-volt DC architecture
“The second pain point that they are working on as we speak is shifting the mindset to an 800 volt DC bus going into Iraq. Let me explain this to you. When you are a large power plant that produces 50 megawatts, 500 megawatts worth of power, because so much pow…”
Kann: Data centers will partner with DER aggregators for grid capacity
“We're just starting to see this wave of announcements that are inexorably coming where there are going to be partnerships between hyperscalers or data center operators and the Third parties who do aggregations of DERs to deliver capacity to get data centers on…”
Kimber: AI data centers will never offer flexible power load
“Every second you aren't running that at a hundred percent capacity factor is enormous amortized cost, right? So that it's just, it's one of those things where it's like, you'd be a fool to turn it down. You have to at some points because operationally, you kno…”
Kimber: AI inference will ultimately draw far more power than training
“I think now what we're seeing is that inference in the aggregate is actually probably a much larger draw than the training in the long run.”
Hsu predicts someone will achieve fusion scientific breakeven during the 2020s
“If I were a betting person, I would say yes. I think somebody will achieve scientific break-even this decade, and possibly more than one.”
Johnson: Geologic hydrogen extraction costs should match natural gas extraction
“If you can find hydrogen under the ground, the reality is you should be able to produce it from a volumetric standpoint at a similar cost that we produce natural gas out of the ground.”
Loo: Maritime shipping will not converge on a single replacement fuel
“I think, you know, the future of maritime, it's not going to be single fuel. So we're not going to, for example, move into one single fuel. I think, you know, as a contrast to aviation, where I think there's a convergence that we need sustainable aviation fuel…”
Loo: Projections show ammonia will eventually be cheaper than e-methanol
“In the long term, if you look at the projections and the numbers, I think if costs were the driver, then the cost of ammonia is going to be cheaper than the cost of e-methanol.”
Faruqi: Solar generation will push electricity peak hours into late night
“The peak will keep on going into the later evening, early nighttime hours, and the off peak will be in the middle of the day when the sun is shining and you have a lot of solar generation, both supply side and customer side.”