Prediction Open AI assessment confidence: 85% certainty 3/5 debate potential 3/5

Grogan: The ISA will pass deep sea exploitation regulations

Renee Grogan · Mining the deep sea · Jul 27, 2023 · at 45:55

Industry expert Renee Grogan discusses the regulatory roadmap and future of commercial seabed mining with Shayle Kann.

0:00 / 0:12exact quote · 12.3s

720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark

“I think the ISA will pass its exploitation regulations. Whether they do that in July is, is a question that I can't answer. But I think there's, it will go ahead.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

The claim, plainly

The International Seabed Authority will pass its exploitation regulations for deep sea mining.

a quote alone can be ambiguous, so this restates it with the references and context of the conversation around it resolved. AI-written; the tape below the player is the source.

Assessment

On July 27, 2023, Renee Grogan predicted that the International Seabed Authority (ISA) would eventually adopt its exploitation regulations for deep-sea mining. As of September 2, 2026, the ISA Council has completed first and second readings of the consolidated draft exploitation regulations, but formal adoption and enactment remain pending amid ongoing negotiations over environmental thresholds, compliance mechanisms, and benefit-sharing rules. Because the horizon date of July 27, 2033 has not passed and the adoption process remains active, the claim cannot yet be resolved as true or false.

The ISA missed its initial two-year deadline in July 2023 and established subsequent roadmaps to negotiate draft exploitation regulations.
On February 16, 2024, the ISA published a consolidated text of the draft exploitation regulations.
As of July 2026, following the 30th and 31st ISA Council sessions, final exploitation regulations have not been formally adopted or enacted.
The prediction horizon of July 27, 2033 remains open while negotiations continue.

Checked against

[1] oceansnorth.org [2] isa.org.jm [3] metrio.net [4] isa.org.jm [5] ejiltalk.org [6] iisd.org [7] facebook.com [8] isa.org.jm

International Seabed Authority election Secretary General July August 2024 Leticia Carvalho International Seabed Authority mining code adoption exploitation regulations 2024 2025 ISA deep sea mining exploitation regulations status 2024 2025 2026 International Seabed Authority Assembly Council meeting July 2024 August 2024 exploitation regulations

assessed as of 2026-09-02

This assessment is an AI reading of a public statement, made against the cited references with the confidence shown. It can be wrong. The quote, the tape and the references are all on this page; if something is off, use report an error below. full disclaimer →

⏳ prediction date: 2033-07-27; checked again automatically on the next resolution wave

Mentioned

exploitation regulations ISA

⚑ Spot an error? Report it

More from Renee Grogan

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028

Grogan: First commercial seabed mineral recovery will occur around 2028

“I think probably around twenty-twenty-eight is, is a fair guess.”

Renee Grogan Jul 27, 2023 ▶ 48:12 Mining the deep sea

Assertion Partly supported

Grogan: Clarion-Clipperton Zone holds more nickel than all land resources combined

“There's an area called the Clarion-Cliberton Zone. It's between Mexico and Hawaii. It has a estimated resource of nickel that is larger than the entire global terrestrial nickel resource. So more than you have in the entire global terrestrial environment in th…”

Renee Grogan Jul 27, 2023 ▶ 6:52 Mining the deep sea

Assertion Supported

Grogan: Seafloor massive sulfides can have 10x higher copper grades than land mines

“Now in something like sea floor massive sulfides, The grade can be 10 times as high as a typical terrestrial copper mine.”

Renee Grogan Jul 27, 2023 ▶ 11:41 Mining the deep sea

Assertion Supported

Grogan: Nauru triggered a 2021 UN rule forcing deep-sea mining regulations

“So about two years ago, in July of 21 NARU, which is a sponsoring state of the metals company, which is a company, private company, or listed company that has exploration licenses, triggered what's known colloquially as the two-year rule. So it's a trigger und…”

Renee Grogan Jul 27, 2023 ▶ 18:51 Mining the deep sea

Assertion Supported

Grogan: Cook Islands and New Zealand passed national deep-sea mining laws

“A couple of nations, the Cook Islands is one, New Zealand is another, have passed their own deep sea mining legislation. So they have legislation in place that allows for mining applications to be considered.”

Renee Grogan Jul 27, 2023 ▶ 22:32 Mining the deep sea

Assertion Supported

Grogan: Selective seabed harvesting is proven in shallow water, unproven deep

“So that, that technology's in its infancy. It hasn't been tested in the deep ocean yet but it has been tested in shallow water and it does work.”

Renee Grogan Jul 27, 2023 ▶ 36:51 Mining the deep sea

Grogan: The ISA will pass deep sea exploitation regulations

More from Renee Grogan

Turn any episode into a week of clips.