The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Andy Lubershane (10)Shayle Kann (9)Sam Jaffe (6)Jesse Jenkins (6)Michael Dunne (4)Kurt Kelty (4)Jeff Waters (4)Varun Sivaram (3)Tim Hade (3)Richard Wang (3)Matthew Sachs (3)Julian Dumoulin-Smith (3)
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Next up (6)
108 days left 2026-12-31
Kann predicts US energy startup funding will boom and triple in 2026
“So I think we're going to see, this is going to be a return to a boom, this is my prediction right now, where, yeah, we were at two billion last year, down from eight billion in twenty-twenty-two. I don't know that we get back to eight, but like, Will it tripl…”
763 days left 2028-10-16
895 days left 2029-02-25
1569 days left 2030-12-31
1569 days left 2030-12-31
Kann: US solar installations will top 100 GW annually by 2030
“We'll do maybe 30 to 35 gigawatts of solar total this year, and according to the repeat project, we may hit almost 50 gigawatts by twenty-twenty-five or twenty-twenty-six. By the end of the decade, we'll be doing over a hundred gigawatts a year, potentially we…”
1625 days left 2031-02-25
Closed calls (6) the full record →
Kann: On-grid, off-grid, edge, and space data centers will probably be built
“Massive data centers on the grid, massive data centers off-grid, small data centers on the edge, huge data center clusters in space. Each of these might get built. Actually, each of them probably will get built”
Kann predicts US data center capacity will double by 2030.
“I'm on the oversight here. I'm betting that there will be more than 20 gigawatts of new data center capacity in the United States by then.”
Kann: Data centers will partner with DER aggregators for grid capacity
“We're just starting to see this wave of announcements that are inexorably coming where there are going to be partnerships between hyperscalers or data center operators and the Third parties who do aggregations of DERs to deliver capacity to get data centers on…”
Kann: 300 MW data centers have lower cost per FLOP than edge
“My guess is, you know, your 300 megawatt data center on a fully loaded levelized cost of flop is just gonna be cheaper.”
Kann: First Solar will scale up and stay sold out for years
“First Solar was, is just over the moon about this. Right. This is like the biggest boon for them that you could possibly imagine, because they're already manufacturing here, and they can scale up relatively quickly, and so that's exactly what they're going to …”
Kann: Residential solar market might contract over the next year
“Which the residential solar market between interest rates and some policy changes, particularly in California around net metering, that's a market that might be down over the next year. You know, relative to this year, and I think this year might be down relat…”