The Calls

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Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.

4open predictions

0due for another look

2closed calls →

222days to next prediction date

Everyone Andy Lubershane (10)Shayle Kann (9)Sam Jaffe (6)Jesse Jenkins (6)Michael Dunne (4)Kurt Kelty (4)Jeff Waters (4)Varun Sivaram (3)Tim Hade (3)Richard Wang (3)Matthew Sachs (3)Julian Dumoulin-Smith (3)

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today 202720282029 MayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep 1 call beyond 2029 →

Next up (4)

222 days left 2027-04-23

Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027

LFP battery pricing could drop to $25 per kWh within years

“There's a decent likelihood we'll continue to see pricing go down. You know, I've heard some claims that you could see it go down as far as, you know, from 50 dollars down to even 25 dollars over the course of the next couple of years. I think it's realistic t…”

Jeff Waters Apr 23, 2025 ▶ 10:52 What’s next for the battery storage boom? [partner content]

222 days left 2027-04-23

Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027

Median utility-scale storage projects will hit 2 GWh in two years

“I would expect, if we were to even talk two years from now, I think two gigawatt hours would probably be the size of projects that will be more the median than even the maybe 800 megawatt hour that you have today.”

Jeff Waters Apr 23, 2025 ▶ 15:44 What’s next for the battery storage boom? [partner content]

222 days left 2027-04-23

Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027

Waters: LFP chemistry will remain dominant in battery storage as costs fall

“LFP will, I think, remain dominant in that timeframe, just because you're going to see the cost curves continue to drive down.”

Jeff Waters Apr 23, 2025 ▶ 15:57 What’s next for the battery storage boom? [partner content]

3396 days left 2035-12-31

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2035

Waters: SMRs will not be a viable power source until the mid-2030s

“The challenge there is that between permitting and technology development that needs to happen, you're probably talking about, you know, mid 20 thirties before you see that become a real play.”

Jeff Waters Apr 23, 2025 ▶ 5:30 What’s next for the battery storage boom? [partner content]

Closed calls (2) the full record →

Prediction Held up

Waters: Tariff Costs and IRA Cuts Will Likely Hit Utility Ratepayers

“And so then what you'll see is anything around tariffs or IRA incentives getting cut will likely get passed on to the rate payers. That's my best guess from what I'm seeing.”

Jeff Waters Apr 23, 2025 ▶ 13:36 What’s next for the battery storage boom? [partner content]

Prediction Partly held up

Waters: New York, PJM, and MISO will see accelerating storage growth

“And, you know, right now, I would say, you know, New York, ah, PJM, MISO, those are all regions where we expect to see a lot more growth. Than we've seen historically.”

Jeff Waters Apr 23, 2025 ▶ 9:46 What’s next for the battery storage boom? [partner content]

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Closed calls (2) the full record →

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