Opinion
Waters: US energy storage success requires partnering with Chinese companies
“The only way we're going to get anywhere in the U.S. Market with storage is by partnering with the Chinese.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2035
Waters: SMRs will not be a viable power source until the mid-2030s
“The challenge there is that between permitting and technology development that needs to happen, you're probably talking about, you know, mid 20 thirties before you see that become a real play.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027
LFP battery pricing could drop to $25 per kWh within years
“There's a decent likelihood we'll continue to see pricing go down. You know, I've heard some claims that you could see it go down as far as, you know, from 50 dollars down to even 25 dollars over the course of the next couple of years. I think it's realistic t…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Waters: 8- to 12-hour storage applications will emerge and surpass LFP
“But you will start to see more eight-hour, twelve-hour type applications emerging. And I think as that happens, you'll see other technologies kick into gear that will enable that better than LFP.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Waters: US can gain full battery storage capability in 5-10 years
“If you do that and you partner it up with building the infrastructure like the Japanese did for semis, You can result, you know, in, in five to 10 years from now with the U.S. Having that same capability.”
Assertion Supported
Waters: Natural gas turbines ordered today have lead times until 2030
“You know, turbines today for natural gas, you know, if you place an order today, it's, you're not going to see that until, let's say, twenty-thirty.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027
Median utility-scale storage projects will hit 2 GWh in two years
“I would expect, if we were to even talk two years from now, I think two gigawatt hours would probably be the size of projects that will be more the median than even the maybe 800 megawatt hour that you have today.”
Assertion Supported
Waters: LFP battery costs fell nearly 50% in two years
“So the cost for, you know, LFP batteries have come down nearly 50% over the course of the last year or two.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Waters: Storage market trading softened amid ERCOT and CAISO saturation
“The market trading piece has softened a little bit, just because those markets have been reasonably saturated, both in ERCOT and, in CAISO.”
Prediction Partly held up
Waters: New York, PJM, and MISO will see accelerating storage growth
“And, you know, right now, I would say, you know, New York, ah, PJM, MISO, those are all regions where we expect to see a lot more growth. Than we've seen historically.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tariff risk pushed down the supply chain is causing energy storage delays
“And effectively, what's happening now is you're seeing a bit of a push from off-takers to try and push more of the tariff risk onto developers, and developers trying to push it more onto you know, guys like us, like the integrators and the cell suppliers. And …”
Prediction Held up
Waters: Tariff Costs and IRA Cuts Will Likely Hit Utility Ratepayers
“And so then what you'll see is anything around tariffs or IRA incentives getting cut will likely get passed on to the rate payers. That's my best guess from what I'm seeing.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027
Waters: LFP chemistry will remain dominant in battery storage as costs fall
“LFP will, I think, remain dominant in that timeframe, just because you're going to see the cost curves continue to drive down.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Powin CEO: US 75 GW storage projections through 2028 are conservative
“That, I think, is the only thing that's going to stay in the way of storage getting adopted, and I think the numbers that, that, you know, we've been citing, I think those are conservative. I think they factor in a lot of these artificial barriers that could c…”
Assertion Supported
Waters: U.S. energy storage is projected to reach 170 GW by 2033
“It's expected, just to give you a broad number, by 2033, the market is projected in the U.S. To hit about a 170 gigawatts of storage.”
Assertion Supported
Waters: LFP battery supply chain investment is spreading to Indonesia and Morocco
“I mean, the supply chains for LFPs have been largely within China. You're seeing that now spread more broadly. So Indonesia, Morocco are all areas now where you're seeing a lot more investment going into it.”
