The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Andy Lubershane (10)Shayle Kann (9)Sam Jaffe (6)Jesse Jenkins (6)Michael Dunne (4)Kurt Kelty (4)Jeff Waters (4)Varun Sivaram (3)Tim Hade (3)Richard Wang (3)Matthew Sachs (3)Julian Dumoulin-Smith (3)
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Next up (6)
196 days left 2027-03-28
Lubbershane: Surging demand and supply constraints will increase wholesale electricity prices
“Basic economics, right? We're seeing demand rise really quickly. We're seeing constraints on supply. All else equal, I think that means we're going to see increases in wholesale electricity prices in general. I think if you had to make a bet one way or the oth…”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
2666 days left 2033-12-31
Lubbershane: Utilities will demand gigawatts of multi-day storage by the early 2030s
“Utilities are starting to see that, yes, it's very difficult to get, you know, a gigawatt of multi-day storage today, but in a few years, and certainly by the early twenty-thirties, they're going to want gigawatts of multi-day storage as a compliment to their …”
2816 days left 2034-05-30
3031 days left 2034-12-31
Lubershain: New nuclear power will not scale in US until 2035+
“I don't think we're gonna see, we might see a little bit, you know, in the 2030, early 20 thirties time frame, but I think for the most part we're talking 2035 and beyond when we, when we'd actually have new nuclear power at scale coming online.”
10121 days left 2054-05-30
Lubbershane: Electricity will remain more cost-effective than biofuels or hydrogen
“Even as the cost of clean electricity increases over the coming decade or two or three, I think electricity will still look cost effective as a fuel, like the primary, you know, the energy input relative to things like biofuels or clean hydrogen, perhaps some …”
Closed calls (4) the full record →
Lubershain: Global AC demand will add another US power sector by 2050
“Depending on what forecast you look at in a sort of business as usual technology scenario, that means we're on track to add, roughly speaking, another whole U.S. Electricity sector worth of electricity demand globally for this new air conditioning demand by ar…”
Lubershane: Islandable microgrids will deploy at megawatt EV charging depots
“The same expertise in in islandable large-scale power systems that are grid-connected but can take themselves offline, can provide peak capacity to the grid, can ensure that they're never drawing beyond a certain amount of capacity from the grid. Like, that sa…”
Lubbershane: EV chargers paired with storage will see widespread adoption
“And I really believe that's a category we're going to see a lot more of and already are starting to see pop up as this kind of electric vehicle chargers paired in some way with storage to buffer their demand against the grid.”
Lubbershane: Hyperscalers will pay a premium for early-stage clean energy technologies
“I think we're gonna see that particularly when it comes to customers who are willing to pay a premium for You know, perhaps newer technology that is not yet come very far down the cost curve. And, you know, I, again, I think what we're gonna see it from compan…”