The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Andy Lubershane (10)Shayle Kann (9)Sam Jaffe (6)Jesse Jenkins (6)Michael Dunne (4)Kurt Kelty (4)Jeff Waters (4)Varun Sivaram (3)Tim Hade (3)Richard Wang (3)Matthew Sachs (3)Julian Dumoulin-Smith (3)
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Next up (5)
474 days left 2027-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Jaffe: Lithium metal batteries will hit 150 GWh by 2030, mostly non-automotive
“I think that lithium metal batteries are gonna result, are gonna be about a 150 gigawatt hour market by the end of the decade, but they're gonna be in other things outside of cars, mostly.
They'll just start to be appearing in cars at the end of the decade.”
2138 days left 2032-07-21
Jaffe: Lithium prices will fall but remain elevated for a decade
“I do expect lithium pricing will decline. It's not going to stay in the stratosphere where it is now. And I think that it's going to Return. It, the, I think expensive lithium is going to be sticky. It's going to be with us for the next decade. In terms of whe…”
2138 days left 2032-07-21
Closed calls (8) the full record →
Jaffe: Battery industry will nearly double every year for 5–6 years
“The industry is literally increasing by almost doubling every year. And we'll continue to do that for the next five or six years and doubling off of a huge base now.”
US domestic battery manufacturing will reach 200 GWh by 2025
“And at that point, we're going to have the LG GM Ultium joint venture making over a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries throughout this country. LG Stellantis will be making 35 gigawatt hours. Stellantis Samsung STI will be making another 30. And then Ford wil…”
US battery manufacturing will reach roughly 200 gigawatt-hours by 2025
“And at that point, we're going to have the LG GM Ultium joint venture making over a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries throughout this country. LG Stellantis will be making 35 gigawatt hours. Stellantis Samsung STI will be making another 30. And then Ford wil…”
Jaffe: Most EVs Sold Through Early 2025 Will Remain Luxury Vehicles
“Over the next 12 to 24 months, we're still going to be living in a world where most electric vehicles sold are luxury or near luxury vehicles.”
Jaffe: EVs will hit about 6% of new US sales by 2024
“We think that we're going to get to about six percent by 2024, six percent of new cars sold will be EVs.”
Jaffe: California and Texas to Capture Majority of New US Storage
“And of course, California and Texas are getting the lion's share of these, of what's going to be installed over the next two years.”
Jaffe: US Energy Storage Capacity Will Double in 2023 Alone
“Essentially what we're expecting to see next year now is a doubling of the entire installed capacity
Of US energy storage in twenty-twenty-three alone. In other words, everything that's been built and installed in the US is about to double in what's installed …”