The Calls

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Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.

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Everyone Andy Lubershane (10)Shayle Kann (9)Sam Jaffe (6)Jesse Jenkins (6)Michael Dunne (4)Kurt Kelty (4)Jeff Waters (4)Varun Sivaram (3)Tim Hade (3)Richard Wang (3)Matthew Sachs (3)Julian Dumoulin-Smith (3)

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1570 days left 2030-12-31

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030

Jenkins: IRA Will Cut U.S. Emissions by One Gigaton in 2030

“So our top line finding from the repeat project analysis of the bill is that it will cut annual U.S. Greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 by an additional one, roughly one billion metric tons below the current policy baseline. So an additional billion tons of emis…”

Jesse Jenkins Aug 5, 2022 ▶ 11:32 What the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 would mean for climatetech

1570 days left 2030-12-31

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030

Jenkins: IRA Will Drive $200B+ Investment Into Energy Communities by 2030

“Our estimates are that that provision and a few others sprinkled throughout the bill that will help drive investment into energy communities will support several hundred billion dollars, probably at least two hundred billion dollars of investment in energy com…”

Jesse Jenkins Aug 5, 2022 ▶ 20:57 What the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 would mean for climatetech

1935 days left 2031-12-31

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2031

Jenkins: US hydrogen demand will explode after 2030, not before

“So that makes hydrogen you know, in our modeling, there's not a lot of demand for it in the 20, 20 to 20, 30 period, but after 2030, it explodes. It takes off for liquid fuels and for some industrial processes.”

Jesse Jenkins Aug 5, 2022 ▶ 48:32 What the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 would mean for climatetech

2153 days left 2032-08-05

Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2032

Jenkins: IRA will redirect EV supply chain capital to North America

“What this bill is going to do is make sure a vast majority of that investment is going to go into the United States, North America, and other free trade agreement countries. And so I think we're going to see a big reorientation of the supply chain”

Jesse Jenkins Aug 5, 2022 ▶ 38:29 What the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 would mean for climatetech

2153 days left 2032-08-05

Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2032

Jenkins: IRA will drive roughly 29% US electricity demand growth over decade

“So electricity demand grows by about 29%, so just shy of 30% over the next decade in our modeling driven primarily by electrification of vehicles, and then the secondary effect from building electrification.”

Jesse Jenkins Aug 5, 2022 ▶ 55:00 What the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 would mean for climatetech

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