Jesse Jenkins explains how the IRA's sourcing rules and manufacturing tax credits will influence global automaker investments.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jenkins: Europe can viably eliminate 100% of Russian gas by winter 2022
“Europe's current plan is to cut natural gas use by about two thirds before this winter.
Can they actually go a hundred percent?
Can they cut if they needed to, or if they needed to make a credible threat on the global stage to Putin that we will cut our gas us…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Jenkins: IRA Will Cut U.S. Emissions by One Gigaton in 2030
“So our top line finding from the repeat project analysis of the bill is that it will cut annual U.S. Greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 by an additional one, roughly one billion metric tons below the current policy baseline. So an additional billion tons of emis…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jenkins: The IRA will not materially boost near-term US EV sales
“The total volume of credit of a vehicle sold is not really going to be affected by whether or not they can claim this credit in the short term. So we just assumed the trajectory in our modeling follows Bloomberg's Bloomberg New Energy Finance's trajectory for …”
Assertion Supported
Jenkins: Gazprom kept its European gas storage assets exceptionally low pre-invasion
“Gazprom, the Russian gas company, owns a lot of storage assets for natural gas in Europe, and if you look at the storage volumes for Gazprom-owned storage assets in Europe, they were much lower than the average for other assets at the time, so it's almost as i…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jenkins: Europe can normalize energy conditions by 2025 with lower gas use
“And so that, you know, by 20, 25 or 20, 26, you know, in the sort of three to four year timeframe, it should be possible to get back to sort of typical European, you know, conditions, albeit with dramatically lower oil and gas consumption, particularly gas con…”
Insight
Jenkins: Displacing Russian gas with US LNG may not increase net emissions
“Even relying on US LNG to displace Russian pipeline gas may lead to a small net decrease in emissions because the greenhouse gas intensity of, Russian gas is so high that even LNG, which is worse normally than pipelines, because you consume energy to liquefy t…”