Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jenkins: Europe can viably eliminate 100% of Russian gas by winter 2022
“Europe's current plan is to cut natural gas use by about two thirds before this winter.
Can they actually go a hundred percent?
Can they cut if they needed to, or if they needed to make a credible threat on the global stage to Putin that we will cut our gas us…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Jenkins: IRA Will Cut U.S. Emissions by One Gigaton in 2030
“So our top line finding from the repeat project analysis of the bill is that it will cut annual U.S. Greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 by an additional one, roughly one billion metric tons below the current policy baseline. So an additional billion tons of emis…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jenkins: The IRA will not materially boost near-term US EV sales
“The total volume of credit of a vehicle sold is not really going to be affected by whether or not they can claim this credit in the short term. So we just assumed the trajectory in our modeling follows Bloomberg's Bloomberg New Energy Finance's trajectory for …”
Assertion Supported
Jenkins: Gazprom kept its European gas storage assets exceptionally low pre-invasion
“Gazprom, the Russian gas company, owns a lot of storage assets for natural gas in Europe, and if you look at the storage volumes for Gazprom-owned storage assets in Europe, they were much lower than the average for other assets at the time, so it's almost as i…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jenkins: Europe can normalize energy conditions by 2025 with lower gas use
“And so that, you know, by 20, 25 or 20, 26, you know, in the sort of three to four year timeframe, it should be possible to get back to sort of typical European, you know, conditions, albeit with dramatically lower oil and gas consumption, particularly gas con…”
Insight
Jenkins: Displacing Russian gas with US LNG may not increase net emissions
“Even relying on US LNG to displace Russian pipeline gas may lead to a small net decrease in emissions because the greenhouse gas intensity of, Russian gas is so high that even LNG, which is worse normally than pipelines, because you consume energy to liquefy t…”
Assertion Supported
Jenkins: Clean Electricity Incentives Will Cut 360M Tons of Emissions
“Our modeling finds that accelerating the deployment of clean electricity, a trend that of course is already well underway, but gets sort of supercharged by the incentives in this bill, will drive the largest chunk of the overall emissions reductions just over …”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Jenkins: IRA Will Drive $200B+ Investment Into Energy Communities by 2030
“Our estimates are that that provision and a few others sprinkled throughout the bill that will help drive investment into energy communities will support several hundred billion dollars, probably at least two hundred billion dollars of investment in energy com…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2032
Jenkins: IRA will redirect EV supply chain capital to North America
“What this bill is going to do is make sure a vast majority of that investment is going to go into the United States, North America, and other free trade agreement countries. And so I think we're going to see a big reorientation of the supply chain”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jenkins: $85/Ton 45Q Credit Makes Heavy Industry Carbon Capture Economically Viable
“None of those really pencil out at 50 dollars a ton. They do, in many locations, at 85 dollars a ton. Not everywhere. Not every facility is laid out for this. Not every facility, you know, will this be the best option? Some will want to electrify or fuel switc…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jenkins: CO2 Storage Basin Capacity Will Be Rate-Limiting Factor for CCS
“So what that says to me is that we don't know exactly who's going to get access first and lock up that injection capacity, but the development of CO two injection and storage basins will be a rate limiting factor here.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2031
Jenkins: US hydrogen demand will explode after 2030, not before
“So that makes hydrogen you know, in our modeling, there's not a lot of demand for it in the 20, 20 to 20, 30 period, but after 2030, it explodes. It takes off for liquid fuels and for some industrial processes.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2025
Jenkins: Flexible industrial power consumers could secure one-cent-per-kWh contracts under IRA
“And so, you know, you could probably get one cent a kilowatt hour contracts, right, with that kind of environment. And as long as you don't need it 24 seven, right, as long as you're okay using it intermittently.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2032
Jenkins: IRA will drive roughly 29% US electricity demand growth over decade
“So electricity demand grows by about 29%, so just shy of 30% over the next decade in our modeling driven primarily by electrification of vehicles, and then the secondary effect from building electrification.”
Assertion Supported
Jenkins: Corporate self-sanctioning stranded 1.5M barrels daily of Russian crude exports
“Already we're starting to see, I think the estimates are about a million and a half barrels of oil a day, which is, I think on the order of one or two percent of the global market of what normally would have been Russian crude being exported not finding a buye…”
Assertion Supported
Jenkins: 50 BCM of US LNG displaces one-third of Russian gas imports
“50 is enough to displace about a third of Russia's imports just with US LNG over the medium term.
and that 15 BCM is about a 10th of the Russian imports right now.”
Opinion
Jenkins: Europe will not accept permanent dependence on US LNG exports
“I don't think in the long term, Europe wants to trade Their dependence on Russian gas for US LNG.”
Opinion
Jenkins: US cannot export heat pumps to Europe due to hydronic incompatibility
“In Europe, they use a lot of water you know, forced water heating, and we don't have a lot of hydronic heat pumps that do water, you know, air to water type heating. It's just not what we built And use in the U S very often. And so most of the stuff we deploy …”
Assertion Supported
Jenkins: Doubling EU heat pump deployment replaces only 1% of Russian gas
“And even in the short term, if you look at like the current EU strategy for this year, you know, they're talking about doubling the amount of heat pump deployment next year, and that's enough to reduce the consumption of natural gas, I think by about, if I'm n…”
Assertion Supported
Jenkins: Tax credits dropped solar and wind costs up to 90%
“The investment tax credit and production tax credit that helped, along with policies in other countries, drive the cost of solar power down by about 90% since 2009 and wind power down by about 70% since 2009.”
Assertion Supported
Jenkins: Advanced Nuclear Projects Can Qualify for 50% Tax Credits
“Because the tax credit transitions to a technology neutral, you know, tax credit for any zero emissions generation, all of the advanced nuclear startups that are moving their way through permitting and into first commercial demonstration will also have access …”
Opinion
Jenkins: 10-Year Clean Energy Tax Credit Stability Is Transformative
“So we have 10 years of these credits on the books, and that alone is transformative. We've never had, beyond the value of the credits, we've never had 10 years of stability in recent memory for any of these tax credits that businesses and industries can plan i…”
Assertion Supported
Jenkins: IRA commercial EV tax credits have no domestic content requirements
“The bill provides a 30% investment tax credit for purchase of clean vehicles. That includes electric and fuel cell vehicles in by any business. So any depreciable property gets a 30% investment tax credit for the purchase of an electric A electric vehicle or a…”
Assertion Supported
Jenkins: US-EU deal aims for 15 BCM of LNG, 50 BCM long-term
“The, you know, President Biden and the EU commission, you know, reached an agreement last week to increase our exports by at least 15 billion cubic meters this year and up to 50
billion cubic meters over the longer term.”
