Shail Khan discusses a friendly bet with Princeton professor Jesse Jenkins regarding whether US data center capacity will double by 2030.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kann: Electric vehicles will never discharge to the grid at scale
“I do not think we'll ever see vehicles discharging into the grid at scale.”
Assertion Supported
Kann: Sulfur injection could cool Earth 0.5°C for $2 billion
“Specifically, you might be able to get about a half a degree Celsius of global cooling out of stratospheric sulfur injection for a couple of billion dollars, which is nothing, basically, comparatively.”
Assertion Contradicted
Kann: Software engineering is the only job category truly displaced by AI to date
“And in fact, the only jobs that have been lost really because of AI to date are like software engineers.”
Opinion
Kann: V2G economics do not pencil for EV drivers with $7,000 hardware
“GM, for example, their bi-directional charging bundle runs about 7000 dollars before installation. And grid programs so far have paid drivers a lot less than that. It just doesn't pencil.”
Opinion
Kann: Power is the rate limiter to AI growth
“And understanding the multiple factors that drive failure of new transmission, I think, is key to understanding why power is, in my opinion, The rate limiter to AI growth, and why upward pressure on electricity prices will probably sustain for a while.”
Assertion Partly supported
Kann: Almost none of the 50 GW data center pipeline is off-grid
“There's like, 50 gigawatts of behind-the-meter generation and development at data centers, right? And they, and some people have interpreted that to be, oh, 50 gigawatts of off-grid data centers getting built. It's actually close to zero of those that are true…”