United States

also referred to as: the u s · the us · u s · us

195 statements across 112 episodes · 43 bullish · 49 bearish · 80 people on the record · first statement Nov 18, 2021 by Nan Ransohoff · said 1,911 times in 226 episodes since 2021 · across every show →

Mentions by year

brought up most by Shayle Kann (834), Stephen Lacey (73), Sam Jaffe (51), Nat Bullard (40), Andy Lubershane (40), Lara Pierpoint (39), Michael Dunne (29), Jesse Jenkins (29)

tap a year for its mentions
002503050060202120222023202420252026episodesmentions
03060202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
005301060202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 309 mentions in 35 episodes 9 per episode
2025 360 mentions in 49 episodes 7 per episode
2024 425 mentions in 51 episodes 8 per episode
2023 421 mentions in 44 episodes 10 per episode
2022 381 mentions in 42 episodes 9 per episode
2021 15 mentions in 5 episodes 3 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about United States, oldest first

Nov 18, 2021 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ransohoff: US lacks dedicated permanent CO2 storage infrastructure like Iceland's Carbfix
“Transportation and storage of CO₂ streams is something that we are seeing a lot of the companies that apply to Stripe Climate struggle with. You know, they will have a really compelling capture technology and can essentially use lots of different storage They …”
Nan Ransohoff Nov 18, 2021 ▶ 35:34 Kickstarting a $1 trillion market for carbon removal
Dec 2, 2021
Assertion Supported
Rutherford: 50% of Americans and 90% of humanity do not fly annually
“Half of the United States doesn't fly in a, in any given year, and about 90% of the world doesn't get on a plane in any given year.”
Dan Rutherford Dec 2, 2021 ▶ 5:20 A bumpy ride toward decarbonizing aviation
Dec 9, 2021 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kann: US Natural Gas Use Is Split Between Power, Industry, and Buildings
“In the US, for example, as of twenty-twenty, we used 38% of our natural gas in the power sector, 33% directly in the industrial sector, 25% in buildings, mostly for heating.”
Shayle Kann Dec 9, 2021 ▶ 2:27 The future of natural gas
Dec 23, 2021 positive
Assertion Supported
Hsu: A single train car of fusion fuel could power the US
“Yeah, so the example I like to look at is one train car of fusion fuel, and that's like a little over a hundred tons. Imagine a train car of coal, for example, But if it was a train car of deuterium, tritium fuel that would provide enough energy for the U.S.'s…”
Dr. Scott Hsu Dec 23, 2021 ▶ 6:33 Is nuclear fusion getting close?
Jan 24, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Dell: US Upstream Methane Leakage Doubles Climate Impact of Fossil Inputs
“In the U.S., that's like two and a half percent average leakage rates. That can, over a 20 or 30 year lifetime, that can double the climate impact of your fossil fuel inputs, which is, so if we don't talk about the upstream leakage and we don't account for tha…”
Rebecca Dell Jan 24, 2022 ▶ 16:55 The many pathways to decarbonizing chemicals
Jan 31, 2022 bullish
Disclosure
Powell: Sunrun aims to become one of the largest US energy providers
“The goal is really to be really one of the largest energy providers in the United States, right? So that we're providing energy, we're providing the acceleration around whole home electrification, electrification of transportation, and we're aggregating all of…”
Mary Powell Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 44:30 The future of the home solar market
Jan 31, 2022 negative
Opinion
Powell: US utilities view rooftop solar as a threat, creating hurdles
“In the United States, very much so in many jurisdictions throughout the country, certainly in the utility space, it's seen as a threat, not an opportunity, and so when you see it that way, there's more and more hurdles that get created to go through for a cust…”
Mary Powell Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 14:37 The future of the home solar market
Jan 31, 2022 neutral
Insight
Powell: US solar customer acquisition costs stem from complex permitting processes
“When you think of customer acquisition costs, you have to think of the process to getting a customer to installation, so it's not just the process of getting the customer interested in solar, right? It's the customer of really, the cost of getting them through…”
Mary Powell Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 13:14 The future of the home solar market
Feb 10, 2022
Assertion Supported
Lacey: There is only one active lithium mine in the US
“There's only one active lithium mine in the U.S.”
Stephen Lacey Feb 10, 2022 ▶ 7:45 The Carbon Copy: The lithium land grab in California
Feb 25, 2022 positive
Assertion Supported
DeWitt: Nuclear provides under 20% of US power but majority of clean electricity
“You know, on average, it makes about nine percent of the world's energy. In the U.S., it makes just under 20% and does make the majority of the U.S.'s clean power, which is a pretty important piece of it.”
Jake DeWitt Feb 25, 2022 ▶ 4:44 Will advanced reactors solve nuclear's problems?
Feb 25, 2022 positive
Assertion Supported
DeWitt: All US commercial nuclear waste fits on one football field
“Nuclear power has produced, you know, a lot of energy for decades right? Producing 20% of our energy for, well, I don't, 30 plus, 40 plus years, and then before that as well. And the amount of waste it's produced would fit on a football field, being like, you …”
Jake DeWitt Feb 25, 2022 ▶ 1:02:26 Will advanced reactors solve nuclear's problems?
Feb 25, 2022
Assertion Supported
Pierpoint: US and France saw reverse nuclear learning curves unlike South Korea
“The truth is that when you look at the United States and you look at France, two of the places that have built the most reactors in the world, you see reverse learning curves, actually, when it comes to the cost of nuclear power. It actually increased over tim…”
Lara Pierpoint Feb 25, 2022 ▶ 39:40 Will advanced reactors solve nuclear's problems?
Mar 11, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Atkinson: Only 150 of 3,000 US utilities are investor-owned
“Within the U.S., there's about 3000 utilities overall, and of those, about a 150 are the investor-owned utilities that most people are familiar with, like PG&E, or ComEd, or ConEd, or whoever. The remaining 2850 or so are Primarily publicly owned utilities, an…”
Astrid Atkinson Mar 11, 2022 ▶ 26:00 What the grid can learn from the internet
Mar 31, 2022
Assertion Supported
Jenkins: European gas prices reached $26 per MMBTU versus $4 in US
“Where the United States was paying, you know, four dollars a million British thermal units or MMBTU for gas here in the U.S., at the same time, customers in Germany or Poland, you know, were paying like 26 dollars For MMBTU for gas.”
Jesse Jenkins Mar 31, 2022 ▶ 14:36 Can Europe quit Russian fossil fuel by next winter?
Mar 31, 2022 negative
Opinion
Jenkins: US cannot export heat pumps to Europe due to hydronic incompatibility
“In Europe, they use a lot of water you know, forced water heating, and we don't have a lot of hydronic heat pumps that do water, you know, air to water type heating. It's just not what we built And use in the U S very often. And so most of the stuff we deploy …”
Jesse Jenkins Mar 31, 2022 ▶ 39:55 Can Europe quit Russian fossil fuel by next winter?
Apr 28, 2022
Assertion Contradicted
Kann: Total US energy storage deployed today is under two gigawatt-hours
“For reference, we have a total of less than two gigawatt hours of energy storage in the US overall.”
Shayle Kann Apr 28, 2022 ▶ 2:54 Hydrogen, meet salt cavern
May 12, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kann: Soft costs are largest remaining area for US solar cost reductions
“In the US, soft costs remain the biggest area to run downward.”
Shayle Kann May 12, 2022 ▶ 7:10 Shayle’s “ask me anything” episode
May 26, 2022 neutral
Disclosure
Arcadia maintains database of over 200,000 U.S. utility rate structures
“We have today, at least just in the U.S., a database of over 200,000 different tariff and rate structures.”
Kiran Bhatraju May 26, 2022 ▶ 9:18 Tapping the goldmine of consumer energy data
Jun 23, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Lacey: The US sells 4M heat pumps and 6M AC units annually
“We sell four million heat pumps a year in this country, and we sell six million residential air conditioning units.”
Stephen Lacey Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 12:07 Which tech is overhyped, underhyped and just right?
Jun 23, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kann: Europe will see even stronger heat pump tailwinds than US
“I mean, there's definitely going to be tailwinds for heat pumps in the U S for sure, but in Europe, even more so, I think for the next few years.”
Shayle Kann Jun 23, 2022 ▶ 16:12 Which tech is overhyped, underhyped and just right?
Jul 14, 2022 negative
Insight
Jacobs: Even the US lacks human capacity to deploy needed climate capital
“We still lack the human capacity necessary to mobilize the 9.2 trillion dollars a year that McKinsey says is necessary for the net zero transition.”
Scott Jacobs Jul 14, 2022 ▶ 48:20 Crossing the valley of death
Jul 14, 2022 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jacobs: US Anaerobic Digestion Projects Have Historically Lacked Profitability
“At the end of the day, what I'm saying is the projects in the U.S. Have not been very profitable historically. And it's for a whole host of reasons that those projects weren't profitable, and as a result, capital wasn't flowing.”
Scott Jacobs Jul 14, 2022 ▶ 10:52 Crossing the valley of death
Aug 5, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Jenkins: 85M Tons of US CO2 Storage Projects Are in Advanced Development
“I just heard from an analyst forwarded on a nice piece of analysis about eighty five million tons of CO two storage projects in advanced development now in the US.”
Jesse Jenkins Aug 5, 2022 ▶ 44:13 What the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 would mean for climatetech
Aug 11, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
US Has 120-125 EVs per Fast Charger Compared to 15 in China
“So if you look at the U.S., we're at about a 120, 125 EVs per public fast charger, and China is at 15, and China has much, much higher penetration of EVs.”
Cassie Bowe Aug 11, 2022 ▶ 8:20 Will charging infrastructure be a bottleneck for electric vehicles?
Sep 15, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Webber: 40% of US water withdrawals cool power plants
“And about 40% of all the water withdrawals in the United States every day are just to cool power plants.”
Dr. Michael Webber Sep 15, 2022 ▶ 12:36 Averting water wars as we decarbonize
Sep 15, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Webber: About 13% of US energy consumption goes to water and steam
“If you look at the United States as an example, we use about a hundred quads of energy, a hundred quadrillion BTU of energy. BTU is a British thermal unit of energy. About 13% of that energy is for water and steam.”
Dr. Michael Webber Sep 15, 2022 ▶ 8:03 Averting water wars as we decarbonize
Sep 15, 2022 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Webber: US water desperation will soon force creation of trading markets
“We're not quite at that point in the United States or elsewhere, so we haven't had the desperation, but it feels like we're knocking on the door of it, and we'll get there soon.”
Dr. Michael Webber Sep 15, 2022 ▶ 35:39 Averting water wars as we decarbonize
Sep 15, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Webber: US water heating uses more energy than Switzerland and Sweden combined
“That four percent of national energy consumption in water heating is bigger than what Switzerland and Sweden use for all purposes combined in a year.”
Dr. Michael Webber Sep 15, 2022 ▶ 8:35 Averting water wars as we decarbonize
Sep 15, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Webber: About a third of US energy boils water in power plants
“It's like a third of our energy consumption in the United States just goes to boil water to make steam in power plants.”
Dr. Michael Webber Sep 15, 2022 ▶ 9:07 Averting water wars as we decarbonize
Sep 15, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Webber: US water usage and withdrawal data is released only every 5-10 years
“The water side is much less sophisticated, and the information about water quantities that are used in the United States are released every five or 10 years. Same with water withdrawals.”
Dr. Michael Webber Sep 15, 2022 ▶ 32:05 Averting water wars as we decarbonize
Sep 22, 2022 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yergin: Reshoring clean energy supply chains to the US will increase costs
“So it's an effort to bring it back to the United States, and it will come back to the United States, but it's probably, you know, not, it's going to cost more, not less.”
Dr. Daniel Yergin Sep 22, 2022 ▶ 28:10 Columbia Energy Exchange: Will Putin’s Energy Strategy Backfire?
Sep 22, 2022 positive
Assertion Supported
Yergin: US nears status as world's largest LNG exporter in six years
“It was only in 2016 that the first cargo of LNG left the United States, and today the U.S. Is, or is close to being the world's largest exporter of LNG”
Dr. Daniel Yergin Sep 22, 2022 ▶ 15:06 Columbia Energy Exchange: Will Putin’s Energy Strategy Backfire?
Sep 29, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jaffe: IRA pushes lithium processing to US, Canada, Australia, and Chile
“So there will be a big push towards hydroxide processing probably in Australia, in Chile but also in the U.S. And Canada.”
Sam Jaffe Sep 29, 2022 ▶ 13:38 Is the Inflation Reduction Act a win for EVs and batteries?
Oct 20, 2022 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kann: IRA tax credits will supercharge the US clean hydrogen market
“The Inflation Reduction Act contains some very rich tax credits for low carbon hydrogen production that are, and I can say this with 100% certainty, Going to supercharge the market from a truly infant stage where it is today.”
Shayle Kann Oct 20, 2022 ▶ 2:16 What’s holding up hydrogen in Europe?
Oct 27, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Steele: Average American Uses 75x More Electricity Per Year Than Average Kenyan
“Average U.S. Person uses, you probably know this, but 12 megawatt hours per year, roughly. If we're looking at some of the markets in Africa, we focus a lot on Kenya. Kenya is about a 150 kilowatt hours per year. A little bit above that. You know, you're looki…”
Kate Steele Oct 27, 2022 ▶ 5:43 Climatetech for developing economies
Nov 3, 2022 neutral
Assertion Supported
Reed: US has 400,000 transmission miles, but only 25% are high-voltage
“So we've got about 400,000, just over 400,000 miles of transmission lines in our, in this country, and most of them are lower voltage, so they're still, like, fairly local in terms of how far they can move power. I think it's two-thirds of them. Actually three…”
Liza Reed Nov 3, 2022 ▶ 6:18 Getting more energy on the wires
Nov 3, 2022
Assertion Supported
Reed: Three-quarters of US power lines built in last 5 years are low-voltage
“Three quarters of the lines in the United States that have, I think it's actually three quarters of the lines built in the last five years have been those low voltage ones.”
Liza Reed Nov 3, 2022 ▶ 54:44 Getting more energy on the wires
Nov 3, 2022 negative
Assertion Supported
Pierpoint: US built only 386 miles of high-voltage transmission in 2021
“In the U.S., we have about 640,000 miles of high voltage transmission lines. Most of these were built in the fifties and sixties, and most of them are operating at full capacity. Last year, we built a grand 386 miles of new line, and our record for the last de…”
Lara Pierpoint Nov 3, 2022 ▶ 3:04 Getting more energy on the wires
Nov 10, 2022
Assertion Supported
Kann: Nearly half of South Carolina homes already use heat pumps
“So in South Carolina, for example, nearly 50% of homes already have them, but in most of the country, and particularly in colder climates, the penetration is a fraction of that.”
Shayle Kann Nov 10, 2022 ▶ 3:03 Unleashing the magic of heat pumps
Dec 8, 2022 bearish
Insight
O'Donnell: Direct electrification cannot achieve a 90% emissions reduction without storage
“The upper limit that we typically see in the United States anywhere is anywhere that Maybe you'll get 30% of the hours of the year of clean power. You might get as much as 40% of the hours of the year of low cost power. But so it's a solution that's on the mar…”
John O'Donnell Dec 8, 2022 ▶ 20:52 Solving the conundrum of industrial heat
Jan 5, 2023 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Friedmann: The United States already has 10,000 miles of ammonia pipelines
“The fact that blew my brain is the United States has already 10,000 miles of ammonia pipeline in it.”
Julio Friedmann Jan 5, 2023 ▶ 9:58 Ammonia: the beer of decarbonization
Jan 5, 2023 neutral
Prediction Held up
Friedmann: Ammonia power generation will be limited to select Asian economies
“I do think it's going to be unusual to It's going to be big in those economies, but not the rest of the world. India is not going to do this. The US is not going to do this. South Africa is not going to do this. They have other options. And so ammonia is a pow…”
Julio Friedmann Jan 5, 2023 ▶ 22:09 Ammonia: the beer of decarbonization
Jan 18, 2023
Assertion Supported
Langley: Transportation has surpassed the grid as America's largest emissions source.
“The grid is no longer the biggest source of carbon emissions in America. It's transportation.”
Brad Langley Jan 18, 2023 ▶ 5:44 Introducing: With Great Power, a show about the people building the future grid
Jan 19, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Food waste causes 10% of global emissions, ranking just behind the US
“It's one of the biggest climate problems in that food waste is like 10% of emissions. So like, if you ranked it by country, it'd be like China, United States, food waste, India.”
Matt Rogers Jan 19, 2023 ▶ 3:42 This episode is trash
Jan 26, 2023 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Sachs: US DER grid services will surpass 100 GW by 2030
“We believe that grid services will more than triple by 2030 to well north of a hundred gigawatts in, in North America, really the U.S.”
Matthew Sachs Jan 26, 2023 ▶ 39:06 The journey to monetizing DERs
Feb 23, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Bullard: 38% of US corn crop meets only 10% of gasoline demand
“So we grow in the range of about fourteen billion bushels of corn every year in the United States. Of that, last year, 38% of it went to ethanol that's being used for fuels. Which means that about 40% of the U.S. Corn crop meets about 10% of our motor gasoline…”
Nat Bullard Feb 23, 2023 ▶ 6:24 2023 trends: biomass, ESG, batteries and more
Feb 23, 2023 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bullard: Political anti-ESG sentiment is almost uniquely a US phenomenon
“Anti-ESG sentiment is at the political level almost uniquely U.S. It's something that happens really only here. It's not nearly as big of a topic in Europe at a sort of polity level, or definitely not at like a local politics level”
Nat Bullard Feb 23, 2023 ▶ 25:28 2023 trends: biomass, ESG, batteries and more
Mar 2, 2023 bullish
Assertion Supported
Bullard: US EV value chain announcements reached $70B in 2022
“I mean, I have elsewhere here that there's about seventy billion dollars worth of announcements last year in the, in EV value chain in the United States.”
Nat Bullard Mar 2, 2023 ▶ 21:58 More 2023 trends: EVs, onshoring, and the three ages of decarbonization
Mar 23, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Moffat: Many US wastewater plants flare usable biogas
“There's many wastewater treatment plants in the United States that just flare that gas, and you're like, what are you doing? Like, let's look to see what we can do to be able to refine that and utilize that, whether it's in truck fleets or just injecting it in…”
Brandon Moffat Mar 23, 2023 ▶ 26:06 Betting big on renewable natural gas
Apr 20, 2023 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Schneider: Hydro and gas dispatch in parallel across US power markets
“If you looked last summer in the United States, in every power market where you have hydro and you've, you pulled up the dispatch curve, the daily dispatch curve of assets in a particular ISO, what you'd see is if you have hydro and you have gas, Hydro and gas…”
Gia Schneider Apr 20, 2023 ▶ 5:01 How to build more hydropower
May 4, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Gramlich: High-capacity transmission buildout has dropped 90% since 2013
“So for the last decade, there really wasn't much, and kind of now it's dried up to a trickle. Like, we're down in the, you know, couple of hundred miles of high capacity, so less than 10% of what we did a decade ago, and that's kind of where we are.”
Rob Gramlich May 4, 2023 ▶ 7:35 Understanding the transmission bottleneck
May 11, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Hertz-Shargel: US Bitcoin mining capacity is around 3.9 gigawatts
“So right now total capacity is around 3.9 gigawatts. And that is the finding of this New York Times study that I'm sure we'll be talking about a little bit later. Mines themselves, well, in terms of geography, they are scattered across the country, and we're Y…”
Ben Hertz-Shargel May 11, 2023 ▶ 4:24 The great Bitcoin energy debate
May 11, 2023 bearish
Prediction Held up
Hertz-Shargel: US Bitcoin mining capacity will double or triple soon
“I think roughly speaking, it's certainly set to double or triple in the next few years. I don't have a precise number, but it's certainly large enough that it's going to have an outsized impact.”
Ben Hertz-Shargel May 11, 2023 ▶ 44:28 The great Bitcoin energy debate
May 11, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Hertz-Shargel: US Bitcoin mines range from 10MW to 450MW in capacity
“And you know, the mines themselves are pretty broad in terms of the range of capacity. They go down to around 10 megawatts and then up to four 50, which is the largest.”
Ben Hertz-Shargel May 11, 2023 ▶ 5:48 The great Bitcoin energy debate
May 18, 2023
Assertion Supported
Larson: Zero new coal power plants have been proposed in US
“Not even not building a lot, not building any, period. Like, there are, there have not been any proposed coal plants even before that proposed rule went in place.”
John Larson May 18, 2023 ▶ 15:19 Unpacking EPA’s newly proposed power emissions rule
May 25, 2023
Assertion Partly supported
US currently stores roughly 47 days of primary energy supply in fossil fuels
“We currently store by my rough count, about 47 days on average worth of primary energy supply in the country. So that's it's about nine days of natural gas in storage. It's about 13 days in coal stockpiles. About 10 days in, in crude oil storage. And actually …”
Andy Lubershane May 25, 2023 ▶ 6:50 Four ways to store sunlight
May 25, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lubershane: Decarbonized grid storage needs will fall closer to 47 days
“So, you know, between the minutes of energy storage we have today and 47 days, I think we're going to fall probably actually ultimately closer to the 47 days level, ah, than even minutes, hours, or just a few days worth of storage.”
Andy Lubershane May 25, 2023 ▶ 13:35 Four ways to store sunlight
Jun 22, 2023 neutral
Opinion
Zindler: Subsidized US solar manufacturing is not guaranteed to beat Southeast Asia
“I don't think it's by any means a slam dunk that the U.S. Will be the lowest cost, you know, will, you know, it will fight to be competitive with Southeast Asian nations to produce this stuff. Even with these subsidies, I don't know that that's for certain tha…”
Ethan Zindler Jun 22, 2023 ▶ 39:41 Building out a U.S. solar supply chain
Jun 22, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Zindler: US has seen roughly 40 GW of solar module announcements
“I think we've seen about 40 gigawatts of module announcements a much smaller percentage of that that's going to be sells.”
Ethan Zindler Jun 22, 2023 ▶ 17:35 Building out a U.S. solar supply chain
Jun 22, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Zindler: US will likely need to import skilled solar engineering talent
“Actually, when we talk about imports, like, we're probably going to have to import more, you know you know, very, very well-skilled and engineered folks you know, and capable folks to do a lot of this stuff over here.”
Ethan Zindler Jun 22, 2023 ▶ 31:03 Building out a U.S. solar supply chain
Aug 17, 2023 negative
Opinion
Kann: Meeting power demand is US climate progress's biggest near-term roadblock
“It is, in my humble opinion, the single biggest near-term roadblock to significant climate progress, at least in the U.S.”
Shayle Kann Aug 17, 2023 ▶ 4:20 Navigating the electricity gauntlet
Sep 8, 2023
Assertion Supported
Webber: US food cold chain outspends Switzerland and Sweden's total energy
“We use more energy for our cold chain than countries like Switzerland and Sweden use combined for all purposes.”
Dr. Michael Webber Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 14:59 The food-energy nexus
Sep 8, 2023
Assertion Supported
Webber: The US spends nine energy units per food unit ingested
“So the food we need to ingest in the United States is about one quad of energy a year, and we consume about a hundred quads of energy over the course of a year. One quad of that is in the food we eat, but there's another, say, nine quads of energy to grow and …”
Dr. Michael Webber Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 11:38 The food-energy nexus
Sep 8, 2023
Assertion Supported
Webber: The US food system consumes up to 15% of national energy
“Different people do the analysis and come up with anywhere between like eight and 15% of national annual energy consumption is for the food system.”
Dr. Michael Webber Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 10:46 The food-energy nexus
Sep 8, 2023
Assertion Supported
Webber: Cold chain and cooking consume 40% of food system energy
“And then another, like, 40% of the food system's energy requirements, or like four percent of national energy consumption, is in the cold chain and in the cooking.”
Dr. Michael Webber Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 14:27 The food-energy nexus
Sep 8, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Webber: Wealthy nations throw away up to 50% of edible food
“That food waste number is something like 30 to 50% of the edible food in the United States is thrown away. Typical numbers say 40%. Similar numbers in, say, the UK and other rich countries”
Dr. Michael Webber Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 15:52 The food-energy nexus
Sep 8, 2023 neutral
Insight
Webber: Rich nations waste food at consumption; poor nations at harvest
“Food waste happens in a different stage of the supply chain in the United States compared to, say, a poorer country. So in the United States, we have a very robust cold chain, which is good news, but that means we're wasting the food on our plate. Like, we're …”
Dr. Michael Webber Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 16:32 The food-energy nexus
Sep 21, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Norris: US interconnection queue grew 40% in 2022 to over 2,000 GW
“So, in twenty-twenty-two alone, the backlog of projects in interconnection queues waiting to connect to the grid Grew by 40%. It brought the total to just over 2000 gigawatts. 80% of this growth, growth was driven by solar and storage projects, and for compari…”
Tyler Norris Sep 21, 2023 ▶ 8:57 Fixing interconnection
Sep 21, 2023
Assertion Supported
Norris: Texas has 40 GW of wind capacity, nearly 30% of US total
“Texas has around 40 gigawatts of installed wind. It's three times more than any other state, so Iowa is the next at about 12 and a half gigs. This is just under 30% of all U.S. Wind power capacity.”
Tyler Norris Sep 21, 2023 ▶ 17:54 Fixing interconnection
Sep 28, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Plant-based meat household penetration is 20%, compared to 40% for plant milks.
“Right now, household penetration for plant-based meat is about 20%. You look at where household penetration is for plant-based beverages, you know, plant milk, it's about over 40%. And in Europe, you know, plant-based beverages have a penetration of 50%.”
John Baumgartner Sep 28, 2023 ▶ 12:48 Reviving the stagnant plant based meat market
Oct 19, 2023 bearish
Assertion Supported
Kann: US heat pump sales dropped year-over-year amid broader HVAC slump
“And one of the ones that we talked about there was heat pumps where The market is actually down year over year in overall sales. There's nuance to that because the market for HVAC systems in general is even further down.”
Shayle Kann Oct 19, 2023 ▶ 2:24 The pace of home electrification
Oct 19, 2023
Assertion Supported
Pantano: Household decisions drive about 42% of US energy emissions
“So the number we use for that is about 42%. Of overall energy-related emissions coming from these so-called kitchen table decisions about what equipment you use in your home, what kind of car you drive, whether you use solar on your roof or community solar to …”
Steve Pantano Oct 19, 2023 ▶ 8:29 The pace of home electrification
Oct 19, 2023 bearish
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Pantano: US faces a 204,000-unit heat pump water heater gap by 2025
“So our, according to our calculations nationally, again, to that twenty-twenty-five deadline, we need 810,000 heat pump water heaters in total installed across the country. We're on pace for 613,000, which leaves about 204,000 or so as a gap in terms of what w…”
Steve Pantano Oct 19, 2023 ▶ 21:58 The pace of home electrification
Oct 26, 2023 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hade: A catastrophic power grid failure will occur in the United States
“A catastrophic grid failure is going to happen, and when that catastrophic grid failure happens, the question's going to be, why didn't we think about resilience more?”
Tim Hade Oct 26, 2023 ▶ 16:49 The market for microgrids
Nov 3, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kann: US will never match China in clean energy manufacturing volume
“Now, to be clear, I don't think there's a future wherein the U S produces as much Of any of these things as China does, but we don't need to if our point is to, you know, get high on our own supply, basically.”
Shayle Kann Nov 3, 2023 ▶ 12:12 The Volts crossover episode
Nov 3, 2023 negative
Assertion Supported
Kann: US renewable PPA prices rose over the past year due to rates and component costs
“The PPA prices for renewables have been going up for the past year in the U S both because of interest rates and because some component prices had been rising as well.”
Shayle Kann Nov 3, 2023 ▶ 44:04 The Volts crossover episode
Nov 16, 2023 bearish
Assertion Supported
Kann: Cost overruns have hit basically every recent US nuclear project
“On the expensive side, you can look at the cost overruns that have hit basically every recent reactor development in the United States and in some other countries, whether traditional reactor types or so-called small modular reactors.”
Shayle Kann Nov 16, 2023 ▶ 5:03 The cost of nuclear
Nov 16, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Lovering: South Korea's nuclear regulation is largely modeled on US NRC
“It's not that South Korea has a vastly different regulator. It's actually modeled much on the U.S., and the U.S. Regulator, the NRC, is considered the gold standard, and a lot of other countries follow our example.”
Jessica Lovering Nov 16, 2023 ▶ 32:07 The cost of nuclear
Nov 16, 2023 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lovering: US will not see eight nuclear companies build thousands of reactors
“And so, I don't think we're gonna have, you know, eight companies building thousands of reactors in the U.S. But I do think we're gonna get demonstrations of several, and we'll probably see which ones work, and some of them aren't gonna work”
Jessica Lovering Nov 16, 2023 ▶ 25:26 The cost of nuclear
Nov 16, 2023 neutral
Insight
Lovering: Lack of demand-pull policy drove high US nuclear costs
“What's really been missing with nuclear in terms of policy to help bring down the cost is that demand pull policy. And so this is why you see that nuclear is cheaper and gets cheaper over time in places that have a lot of growth in demand for electricity becau…”
Jessica Lovering Nov 16, 2023 ▶ 33:08 The cost of nuclear
Nov 16, 2023 positive
Assertion Supported
Lovering: US existing nuclear electricity is second-cheapest after hydro
“In the US, nuclear, existing nuclear power, the electricity generated is the second cheapest only after hydroelectric.”
Jessica Lovering Nov 16, 2023 ▶ 14:04 The cost of nuclear
Nov 30, 2023 bullish
Assertion Supported
Woolley: Current US and European EV peak capacity equals three nuclear power stations
“Well, right now, so, like, if there's about thirteen million electric vehicles across Europe and the US, so, like, eight million and about five million in the US and so that's about 13 gigawatts at peak of load, which is probably, in the US, right now, untappe…”
Nick Woolley Nov 30, 2023 ▶ 36:57 EV charging on both sides of the pond
Nov 30, 2023 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Woolley: US EV charging networks are concentrated while Europe's are fragmented
“The networks tend to be much more concentrated in the United States. So we have big networks that span across the entirety of the US. Versus in Europe, there is huge fragmentation. If you go to somewhere like Germany, there are literally hundreds of different …”
Nick Woolley Nov 30, 2023 ▶ 6:28 EV charging on both sides of the pond
Nov 30, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Woolley: European EV charging uses roaming aggregators unlike standalone US networks
“There are what we call roaming aggregators within the European market. So there's companies like Hubject and Jurev that allow for platforms on the other side to interface with a variety of different charging infrastructure networks and provide a single seamles…”
Nick Woolley Nov 30, 2023 ▶ 7:24 EV charging on both sides of the pond
Nov 30, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Woolley: Europe has 8M plug-in EVs compared to 4.5M in the US
“So there's about eight, eight million vehicles I mean, plug-in vehicles in, in the European market right now, and over 50% now are battery electric. And in the US it's around four and a half million, and again, over 50% now are battery electric.”
Nick Woolley Nov 30, 2023 ▶ 5:31 EV charging on both sides of the pond
Dec 7, 2023
Assertion Supported
Freyr, Northvolt, and Volkswagen redirected European battery plant developments to the US
“We've actually seen a shift, in some cases, a shift of battery plants that were planned for Europe where they said, we're gonna stop developing this and instead turn to building a plant in the U.S., Fryer did that, Northvolt did that, and a couple others, and …”
Sam Jaffe Dec 7, 2023 ▶ 22:02 Update: What the new Treasury rules mean for EV supply chains
Jan 26, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Brooke: US environmental claims for cattle feed require eight-year FDA process
“Here in the US, if you're going to make a claim about something, like it decreases methane emissions you have to prove that. And that really pigeonholes you into A new animal drug pathway, which is quite extensive. We're talking, you know, average of upwards o…”
Charles Brooke Jan 26, 2024 ▶ 37:57 Solving the cow burp problem
Jan 26, 2024
Assertion Partly supported
Brooke: The US has roughly 90M beef cattle versus 12M dairy cows
“We're talking about ninety million you know, beef cattle, whereas we have about, you know, twelve million dairy cows, right?”
Charles Brooke Jan 26, 2024 ▶ 7:18 Solving the cow burp problem
Feb 1, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Cantor: US public EV charger installations fell to 27,000 in 2023
“So in twenty-twenty-two, about 41,000 public charging connectors were installed, and last year it was closer to 27,000 new net public charger, public charging connectors were installed.”
Corey Cantor Feb 1, 2024 ▶ 34:01 What’s really happening in the U.S. EV market?
Feb 1, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Cantor: US EV sales split 80-20 between BEVs and plug-in hybrids
“But the BEV and PHEV split is 8020 in the US because Tesla has played such a dominant role.”
Corey Cantor Feb 1, 2024 ▶ 8:46 What’s really happening in the U.S. EV market?
Feb 8, 2024 bearish
Assertion Supported
Kann: US solar PPA prices rose despite falling module prices
“There is a rational way to reconcile the fact that on one hand, solar module prices have continued to decline, while on the other hand, at least in the United States, the cost of solar PPAs has increased during that same period, right?”
Shayle Kann Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 12:58 2024 trends: batteries, transferable tax credits, and the cost of capital
Feb 22, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Mills: Cleveland-Cliffs is the only US grain-oriented steel maker
“It's a very specialized steel, and in the United States, there's literally one manufacturer that makes grain-oriented steel, and that's Cleveland Cliffs. And their plant is essentially operating at a hundred percent capacity.”
Tim Mills Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 21:26 The electric transformer shortage
Feb 22, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Mills: US transformer manufacturing capacity was likely flat from 2007 to 2021
“My gut tells me if you looked at the total capacity in the U.S. For building a transformer in 20 or 2007 versus 20 21, it was probably constant.”
Tim Mills Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 9:34 The electric transformer shortage
Mar 8, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Groarke: US smart meter penetration is over 70%
“All of these smart meters were at over 70% smart meters in the US.”
David Groarke Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 4:23 The early days of AI on the grid
Mar 28, 2024
Assertion Supported
Lubbershane: US has only a few gigawatts of natural geothermal capacity
“We have a few gigawatts of geothermal power generation in the US today, and, you know, almost all of it is in these very rare places where heat rises very naturally close to the surface of the Earth, and water happens to be coincident with water, and so you ba…”
Andy Lubershane Mar 28, 2024 ▶ 28:37 The electricity gauntlet has arrived
Apr 11, 2024 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Bordoff: Mineral production is significantly more concentrated than global crude oil
“So the top producers of oil in the world, the US, Saudi Arabia, and Russia, each produce roughly 10% of global crude oil supply. The top producer Of lithium, of cobalt, of rare earths. Each of those, the top producers, each of those produces more than half, an…”
Jason Bordoff Apr 11, 2024 ▶ 38:50 The Big Switch: Are Batteries the New Oil?
Apr 18, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Grabow: Jones Act requires domestic ships be US-built, owned, and crewed
“The Jones Act basically mandates that if you're going to transport something by water within the United States, you have to use a vessel that meets four conditions. The vessel has to be flagged and registered in the United States. It has to be at least 75% own…”
Colin Grabow Apr 18, 2024 ▶ 3:20 How an obscure, 100-year old law is disrupting U.S. energy
Apr 18, 2024
Assertion Supported
Grabow: U.S. LNG Tankers Cost $700M to Build Versus Under $200M in South Korea
“A few years ago, the Wall Street Journal estimated that to build an LNG tanker in the United States would cost around seven hundred million dollars, whereas at that time you could buy one for, I think, less than two hundred million in South Korea.”
Colin Grabow Apr 18, 2024 ▶ 18:58 How an obscure, 100-year old law is disrupting U.S. energy
Apr 18, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Grabow: Foreign nations have larger salvage cranes and vessels than the US
“Foreigners have much bigger cranes and more capable vessels for doing that kind of work than we do.”
Colin Grabow Apr 18, 2024 ▶ 37:21 How an obscure, 100-year old law is disrupting U.S. energy
Apr 18, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Grabow: U.S. lacks any Jones Act-compliant offshore wind installation vessels
“But in the United States, we can't Do that because we don't have any vessels wind turbine installation vessels that comply with the Jones Act.”
Colin Grabow Apr 18, 2024 ▶ 22:34 How an obscure, 100-year old law is disrupting U.S. energy
Apr 18, 2024
Assertion Supported
Grabow: Zero Jones Act-Compliant LNG Tankers Exist in the United States
“We can't transport it by water to other parts of the United States because there are no LNG tankers that comply with the Jones Act.”
Colin Grabow Apr 18, 2024 ▶ 17:26 How an obscure, 100-year old law is disrupting U.S. energy
May 2, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Friedmann: US CO2 pipelines are largely dedicated to enhanced oil recovery
“The 5000 miles of CO two pipelines in the United States are largely dedicated to that.”
Julio Friedmann May 2, 2024 ▶ 4:22 CO2 utilization
May 23, 2024
Assertion Supported
Shah: US electricity load growth is rising from 0.4% to 2.5% annually
“We are sitting in a moment right now where we are being told, and the data is suggesting that it's true, that we're going from 0.4% load growth a year to two to 2.5% load growth per year.”
Jigar Shah May 23, 2024 ▶ 7:25 Could VPPs save rooftop solar?
Jun 6, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Baglino: Scaling electricity generation is more concerning than electrifying demand
“The demand side I'm less worried about than the generation side, I guess.”
Drew Baglino Jun 6, 2024 ▶ 10:00 Drew Baglino on Tesla’s Master Plan
Jun 27, 2024 bullish
Assertion Supported
Horne: Half the US is accessible for $80/MWh geothermal
“So we've estimated that about half of the United States is accessible for EGS at 80 dollars a megawatt hour.”
Dr. Roland Horne Jun 27, 2024 ▶ 18:44 Going deep on next-gen geothermal
Jun 27, 2024 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Horne: Conventional geothermal matches average US electricity cost of $80/MWh
“You know, the average cost of electricity in the US is somewhere around 80 dollars a megawatt hour and conventional geothermal is basically at that cost today.”
Dr. Roland Horne Jun 27, 2024 ▶ 18:27 Going deep on next-gen geothermal
Jun 27, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kann: Nearly all US geothermal capacity is in Nevada or California
“Basically all of the geothermal that we've built in the United States is in Nevada or California.”
Shayle Kann Jun 27, 2024 ▶ 2:58 Going deep on next-gen geothermal
Jul 18, 2024 bullish
Prediction Held up
Kann predicts US data center capacity will double by 2030.
“I'm on the oversight here. I'm betting that there will be more than 20 gigawatts of new data center capacity in the United States by then.”
Shayle Kann Jul 18, 2024 ▶ 3:03 Can chip efficiency slow AI's energy demand?
Jul 18, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kann: US had roughly 20 GW of data center capacity in early 2024
“For context, we had about 20 gigawatts of data center capacity in the United States prior to that, so the bet is whether it will double by 2030 or not.”
Shayle Kann Jul 18, 2024 ▶ 2:50 Can chip efficiency slow AI's energy demand?
Aug 2, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dell: Six large-scale hydrogen DRI steel projects are under development globally
“Now maybe we can claim that there are six, kind of, Serious, large-scale hydrogen DRI projects that are underdeveloped development, underdevelopment development around the world. There's two in Sweden, two in Germany, and two in the U.S.”
Rebecca Dell Aug 2, 2024 ▶ 39:54 Pathways to decarbonizing steel
Aug 23, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Johnson: The United States already has 1,600 miles of hydrogen pipelines
“We've been moving hydrogen through pipelines in this country for decades. There's 1600 miles of hydrogen pipelines”
Pete Johnson Aug 23, 2024 ▶ 22:16 Hunting for geologic hydrogen
Aug 29, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Bredariol: US gas flaring increased 20% in 2023, primarily in Permian Basin
“In the United States, flaring increased by about 20% last year, and most of this increase came from the Permian Basin.”
Tomas de Oliveira Bredariol Aug 29, 2024 ▶ 6:52 Why are we still flaring gas?
Aug 29, 2024
Assertion Supported
Bredariol: Nine countries account for 75% of global gas flaring
“For over decades, Gas flaring around the world is concentrated in nine countries. That's Russia, Iran, Iraq, the United States, Venezuela, Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, and Mexico. If we look at data for last year, these top nine countries were responsible for abou…”
Tomas de Oliveira Bredariol Aug 29, 2024 ▶ 12:34 Why are we still flaring gas?
Sep 5, 2024 negative
Assertion Partly supported
MacDonald: US real estate insurance rates surged 108% in five years
“Like, real estate, for instance, across the country, their insurance rates have risen a 108% over five years.”
Katie MacDonald Sep 5, 2024 ▶ 25:59 The rise of climate adaptation tech
Sep 12, 2024 negative
Opinion
Lubershane: US obsession with novelty created dependence on China's manufacturing scale
“And I think, you know, comparing the US and China, part of the issue with the US is, you know, we really do kind of tilt towards this mindset of novelty and, you know, boldness and daring and restlessness, which are definitely huge assets and strengths for the…”
Andy Lubershane Sep 12, 2024 ▶ 12:06 The better mousetrap fallacy
Sep 24, 2024 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lacey: UK and US to add half a terawatt of DER capacity
“So in the UK and the US alone, we're talking about a half a terawatt of capacity, distributed resource capacity, getting installed very quickly here in the next couple of years.”
Stephen Lacey Sep 24, 2024 ▶ 14:17 The state of connected DERs [partner content]
Oct 3, 2024 bullish
Disclosure
Climeworks plans a 250,000-ton DAC plant for its first US facility
“And the next one that we'll build is about 250,000 tons. So another sort of seven to eight X scale up that will be our first plant in the US.”
Andreas Apley Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 20:20 DAC’s bumpy road to commercial scale
Nov 14, 2024 bullish
Disclosure
Lambert: Quilt will vertically integrate in major metros and partner elsewhere
“So, we will continue to do the vertical integrated thing. And we're going to do that in probably a lot of major metros in the US, but I want everybody to be able to get a quality pump. We want to accelerate the energy transition. We want to bring a great quali…”
Paul Lambert Nov 14, 2024 ▶ 40:50 Getting heat pumps right
Nov 21, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Ball: Transport costs create a 25 percent price umbrella for decentralized ammonia
“You know, again, that five to 600 dollars a ton selling price, about maybe 20, 25% of that is transportation. So there is some budget, even within the U.S., for these decentralized approaches.”
Dr. Melissa Ball Nov 21, 2024 ▶ 38:17 TEA breakdown: green ammonia and synthetic methane
Nov 21, 2024
Assertion Supported
Ball: US long-term average ammonia price is $500 to $600/ton
“The long-term average selling price of ammonia in the US between five to 600 dollars a ton”
Dr. Melissa Ball Nov 21, 2024 ▶ 10:25 TEA breakdown: green ammonia and synthetic methane
Dec 5, 2024
Assertion Supported
Kann: US natural gas power generation grew from 17% to 40% (2000-2020).
“But in the year 2000, natural gas made up about 17% of power generation. Here in the US. By 2020, it was 40%.”
Shayle Kann Dec 5, 2024 ▶ 2:37 Explaining the 'Watt-Bit Spread'
Jan 30, 2025 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Bullard: U.S. energy exports now match import levels from the 1980s
“We now export about as much energy on a trailing 12 month basis as we imported in the early 19 eighties.”
Nat Bullard Jan 30, 2025 ▶ 17:03 2025 trends: aerosols, oil demand, and carbon removal
Jan 30, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Bullard: China imported over 13 million barrels of oil daily in 2023
“China has, in quick succession, blown past Japan and the United States, especially because the U.S. Had been on a downward trajectory, and then past the EU in terms of oil imports, and it imports, like, more than thirteen million barrels a day as of twenty-twe…”
Nat Bullard Jan 30, 2025 ▶ 19:23 2025 trends: aerosols, oil demand, and carbon removal
Feb 6, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Bullard: US high-voltage transmission construction dropped from 3,200 miles to 125
“In 2013, the U S built 3200 miles of three 45 KV and up transmission. So high voltage, long distance transmission. 3000 miles, whatever, not a lot, but infinitely, not infinitely, but like, shall we say, statistically, significantly better than the 125 miles o…”
Nat Bullard Feb 6, 2025 ▶ 28:12 More 2025 trends: DeepSeek, plug-in hybrids, and curtailment
Mar 6, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Koomey: US data center power share rose to 4.4% in 2023
“The U the U S number from the report to Congress that just came out from LBL was something like on the order of two percent of the electricity in 20, 20, 20, 21 was data centers. And now in 20, 23, now, 2023, which is the last historical year we have, it's 4.4…”
John Koomey Mar 6, 2025 ▶ 49:11 A skeptic’s take on AI electricity load growth
Apr 10, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Boomhauer: Escalating disaster losses over past decade are driving up insurance premiums
“We have these Increasing trends in disaster losses from all kinds of events, from floods, from hurricanes, from wildfires, from severe windstorms and hail, and we have seen really big increases in aggregate losses from those things, particularly in the last 10…”
Dr. Judson Boomhauer Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 4:26 How climate disasters are shaping insurance markets
Apr 17, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Friedmann: Policy uncertainty is killing carbon capture investment decisions
“This kind of uncertainty is killing investment decisions at best. They're delayed at some point or another people just walk away. And it is critically important that the United States resolve these questions firmly and clearly so that investors can put money t…”
Julio Friedmann Apr 17, 2025 ▶ 36:51 Serving data center load with carbon capture
Apr 17, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Khan: Data centers are driving planned natural gas build-out globally
“Anyway, we have talked before a little bit about the build-out of natural gas that is planned in the United States and a bunch of other countries that is being driven by data centers.”
Shayle Kann Apr 17, 2025 ▶ 2:28 Serving data center load with carbon capture
Apr 24, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gariman: Western rare earth projects suffer due to Chinese equipment export limits
“In fact, I am aware of Companies that they really relied on those Chinese technologies, and now they are having challenges with bringing those equipment into the U.S. And Europe. So they, their projects have been suffering from that.”
Ahmad Ghahreman Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 15:28 The geopolitics of rare earth elements
May 1, 2025 bearish
Assertion Partly supported
Schroepfer: US Produces None of Six Critical Minerals Banned by China
“China just, you know, banned the export of six major critical minerals. We make none of these in the United States so that seems like a real big problem.”
Mike Schroepfer May 1, 2025 ▶ 35:58 Catalyst Live at SF Climate Week
May 1, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schroepfer: EVs and manufacturing drive US power demand alongside data centers
“Overhyped in the sense that people over attribute data center load growth with electricity demand inside the United States. You know, manufacturing and EVs are a huge portion of that. So people think it's all data centers. It's not.”
Mike Schroepfer May 1, 2025 ▶ 18:50 Catalyst Live at SF Climate Week
May 6, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Brown: The US has over 80M central HVAC and water heating systems
“And so to me, the idea of not incorporating what is by far kind of the largest existing set of resources In infrastructure we have in the country, which is the eighty million plus central HVAC systems and eighty million plus hot water heating systems that is e…”
Ben Brown May 6, 2025 ▶ 14:13 Frontier Forum: Unlocking next-generation VPPs
May 9, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Google and Elemental Power announce 1.8 GW US nuclear portfolio
“Elemental came out of stealth this week and announced a big partnership with Google to develop a three-site portfolio of at least 1.8 gigawatts of new nuclear in the U.S.”
Shayle Kann May 9, 2025 ▶ 4:23 The U.S. nuclear groundswell
May 15, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Palmer: Many foreign EV charger makers lack robust US spare parts programs
“Another piece is spare parts. It seems really simple that if you create chargers, you would have a full spare parts program, but that's not the case for all charger providers. Making sure that they had a robust program here in the US. Oftentimes you have charg…”
Neha Palmer May 15, 2025 ▶ 16:51 Terrawatt Infrastructure’s billion-dollar strategy
May 20, 2025 positive
Disclosure
Doherty: LG Vertech builds all software in US or Korea with full enclosure visibility
“The fact that we build all of our software, either in the US or in Korea, the fact that we have a hundred percent visibility over every piece of every single controller in, in our enclosure I think puts us in, in a stronger stance, I think from a safety and cy…”
Tristan Doherty May 20, 2025 ▶ 20:56 A former race car engineer on battery safety and supply chains [partner content]
May 20, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Doherty: LG Energy Solution has seven U.S. battery plants active or building
“So right now, we've got seven battery plants in the U.S. That are either producing or in construction.”
Tristan Doherty May 20, 2025 ▶ 12:03 A former race car engineer on battery safety and supply chains [partner content]
May 22, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Khan: Trump's deep-sea mining executive order aims to accelerate U.S. market
“President Trump, in his second term focus on energy dominance, would find his way to deep sea mining and issue an executive order intended to speed up the market, at least for the United States.”
Shayle Kann May 22, 2025 ▶ 4:17 What to make of Trump's deep-sea minerals push
May 22, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Smit: Trump deep-sea mining order covers international and foreign waters
“And I think the other important thing about the executive order is that it has stipulated that it's not just US territorial waters. This is international waters as well as other exclusive zones.”
Hans Smit May 22, 2025 ▶ 5:19 What to make of Trump's deep-sea minerals push
May 29, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Hoyland: US geothermal scaled faster than any other renewable in the 1970s-1980s
“Most of the United States growth actually happens in those first one to two decades. And for a while, it looks like geothermal is just going to take off. It's scaling faster than any other renewable at the time. And through the 19 eighties, we had gigawatts of…”
Carl Hoyland May 29, 2025 ▶ 5:15 How geothermal gets built
May 29, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2030
Hoyland: Unlikely US has another gigawatt-scale conventional geothermal resource
“But at least here in the United States, it's unlikely that there's another gigawatt-scale conventional geothermal resource to be discovered of that type.”
Carl Hoyland May 29, 2025 ▶ 9:58 How geothermal gets built
May 29, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Hoyland: US near-term geothermal resource spans hundreds of gigawatts to terawatts
“When you look at the full stack of kind of near-term EGS and conventional, we really are talking about hundreds of gigawatts to terawatts of resource potential.”
Carl Hoyland May 29, 2025 ▶ 30:31 How geothermal gets built
Jun 5, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kann: The US lacks end-user demand for 1,000 new hyperscale data centers
“And I will state categorically, I don't think there will be a thousand new Hyperscale data centers in the United States anytime soon. I don't think there's actually that much demand for it.”
Shayle Kann Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 32:47 The gas turbine crunch
Jun 5, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Brough: Roughly 1,400 new data centers are planned across the US
“There's like 1400 New data centers planned in the United States alone. And over a thousand of those are all large scale.”
Tony Brough Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 31:02 The gas turbine crunch
Jun 19, 2025
Assertion Supported
Stark: 65% of US Manufacturing Plants Have Thermal Loads Under 10MW
“The reality is, when you look at manufacturing in the U.S., 65% of manufacturing facilities have a thermal load below 10 megawatts”
Addison Stark Jun 19, 2025 ▶ 30:05 The story of steam
Jun 26, 2025 negative
Insight
Kelty: Tariffs to force domestic battery production increase EV prices and stifle demand
“Like, if you want, if you're really trying to encourage domestic production, ah, in the US, you would put in tariffs to increase the cost overseas, and you'd, you'd incentivize local production. The problem with that is that your cost would end up going up hig…”
Kurt Kelty Jun 26, 2025 ▶ 14:18 GM's big new battery tech push
Jul 3, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Data center power demand marks the biggest shift since initial U.S. electrification
“We're now in a place that we probably haven't seen since the U.S. Was being electrified full stop, where people are showing up and saying, hello, I have one thing that will materially change the shape of load and demand pretty much forever.”
Nat Bullard Jul 3, 2025 ▶ 8:10 Fresh intel from state utility regulatory filings
Jul 17, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2034
Lubershain: New nuclear power will not scale in US until 2035+
“I don't think we're gonna see, we might see a little bit, you know, in the 2030, early 20 thirties time frame, but I think for the most part we're talking 2035 and beyond when we, when we'd actually have new nuclear power at scale coming online.”
Andy Lubershane Jul 17, 2025 ▶ 29:03 Five big questions emerging from the OBBB
Jul 24, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
New US EV production accounts for roughly 150 GWh of batteries annually
“And it's on the order of, ah, a 150 gigawatt hours a year new EV production that's going into service.”
Colin Campbell Jul 24, 2025 ▶ 17:45 Repurposing EV batteries for grid storage
Jul 24, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
About 5 GWh of EV battery capacity retires annually in the US
“So today it's on the order of five gigawatt hours a year that's coming off the road.”
Colin Campbell Jul 24, 2025 ▶ 17:34 Repurposing EV batteries for grid storage
Aug 14, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
The US holds the world's largest natural trona reserves
“The U S has the world's largest natural, naturally exploitable proven Trona reserves.”
Landon Mossberg Aug 14, 2025 ▶ 19:18 The case for sodium-ion
Sep 25, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Reinhardt: US corn generates roughly 400 megatons of unused stover annually
“There's about 90, ninety-five million acres of corn grown in the US every year. There's order magnitude four dry tons of stover per year on each of those on each of those acres, and so, you know, you're, Just on corn stover, you're looking at 400 megatons of a…”
Peter Reinhardt Sep 25, 2025 ▶ 5:07 Ag residue and carbon removal
Oct 16, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Rathi: Advanced geothermal is globally overhyped due to drilling talent shortages
“The difficulty I feel like is that it's overhyped because the level of other types of talent and infrastructure that you need to deliver on advanced geothermal exists in the US, but will take a long time in other parts of the world to build. So engineers who c…”
Akshat Rathi Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 35:40 Calibrating hype with Akshat Rathi
Nov 18, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Black: New Mexico hosts the only US uranium enrichment plant
“We have the only uranium enrichment plant in the United States today is in New Mexico.”
Rob Black Nov 18, 2025 ▶ 8:41 New Mexico proves America can still build [partner content]
Nov 18, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Black: New Mexico will be the only state providing universal free childcare
“As well, starting November first of this year, we will provide universal free childcare and early education programs for any family in the, in New Mexico, only place in the United States.”
Rob Black Nov 18, 2025 ▶ 28:20 New Mexico proves America can still build [partner content]
Nov 18, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Black: New Mexico is the only state offering free two- and four-year college
“That sovereign wealth fund not only invests in companies that are helping create jobs, it also pays for us as the only state in the country that provides free Two and four year college tuition for anybody who graduates from a high school in New Mexico , you ca…”
Rob Black Nov 18, 2025 ▶ 27:56 New Mexico proves America can still build [partner content]
Nov 18, 2025 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Black: New Mexico leads the US in R&D spend density and PhDs per capita
“While we have the highest density of R&D spend in the U.S. Here in New Mexico, We also have the most PhDs per capita in the United States, live here in New Mexico.”
Rob Black Nov 18, 2025 ▶ 26:28 New Mexico proves America can still build [partner content]
Nov 18, 2025 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Black: New Mexico operates the most productive geothermal well in the US
“We have the most productive geothermal well now operating in the US happening in New Mexico.”
Rob Black Nov 18, 2025 ▶ 8:46 New Mexico proves America can still build [partner content]
Nov 18, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Black: New Mexico ranks second in US oil and third in gas production
“We're number two in oil production, number three in natural gas production in the United States.”
Rob Black Nov 18, 2025 ▶ 8:35 New Mexico proves America can still build [partner content]
Nov 20, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Gramlich: Only 55 miles of high-voltage transmission were built in 2023
“There were only 55 miles of new High voltage transmission lines in twenty-twenty-three, which is down, you know, a trickle from the 4000 you know, that had been built 10 years prior”
Rob Gramlich Nov 20, 2025 ▶ 5:58 Looking for a turnaround in transmission
Jan 15, 2026
Assertion Supported
Khan: China is significantly more electrified than the US in final energy share
“China is significantly more electrified, at least as measured by the share of final energy that comes from electricity than the United States. Like, substantially more so.”
Shayle Kann Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 6:02 2026 trends: Gas turbines, Texas’ load queue and China electrifies
Jan 15, 2026
Assertion Supported
Kann: Total US data center capacity was approximately 30 GW around 2024
“As of what, maybe two years ago, there were about 30 gigawatts of data centers in the U.S. In total.”
Shayle Kann Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 33:59 2026 trends: Gas turbines, Texas’ load queue and China electrifies
Jan 29, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2036
McGinnis: US will deploy tens of gigawatts of plug-in DERs by 2036
“Again, if you look to Germany, like, doing a gigawatt in a handful of years in what is a much smaller, you know, country than ours, it wouldn't shock me to see tens of gigawatts deployed in the next five to 10 years in the US where that's actually making a mea…”
James McGinnis Jan 29, 2026 ▶ 30:22 The rise of permissionless DERs
Jan 29, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McGinnis: Rising electric bills will drive mass adoption of DIY plug-in energy
“The more that we see bills go up in the U.S., regardless of what the rules out there are, people are gonna go on Amazon, they're gonna start buying the stuff, they're gonna start plugging it in, and so I think this is coming one way or another, and it's really…”
James McGinnis Jan 29, 2026 ▶ 25:59 The rise of permissionless DERs
Feb 5, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2032
First advanced nuclear reactor will supply US grid power by 2032
“I'm pretty bad at making predictions, but I would be surprised if by 20 32 we haven't seen Real new advanced reactor electrons on the grid. There may not be many, and it'll probably be just one reactor but it'll shortly thereafter be followed by, you know, a s…”
Katie Huff Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 34:13 The path to market for new nuclear reactors
Feb 19, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Baglino: Very few utility-scale transformers are manufactured in the US
“The transformers are generally made these days in, like, China, India, and Mexico. Very few of them are actually made in the US.”
Drew Baglino Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 33:48 The rise of grid power electronics with Drew Baglino
Mar 5, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kann: Enhanced geothermal systems are realistically limited to the US West
“For enhanced geothermal systems, EGS, those rules are relaxed a bit, but realistically, we're still talking about a swath of the West in the United States, for example.”
Shayle Kann Mar 5, 2026 ▶ 3:00 Digging deep for super hot geothermal
Mar 19, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Moskowitz: China supported 3 million solar jobs while installing twice US capacity
“If you looked at the jobs figures for how much the U.S. Had versus how much China had, It was like, 250,000 jobs in the U.S. And three million in China. So they were installing twice as much, but they had 10 times as many jobs.”
Scott Moskowitz Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 31:06 Scaling America's domestic solar supply chain
Mar 19, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Moskowitz: US solar plants compete globally against massive 5-20 gigawatt facilities
“We've had a bunch of, like, a couple hundred megawatt plants here and there, but we're competing on a global basis for five, 10, 20 gigawatt type plants.”
Scott Moskowitz Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 16:06 Scaling America's domestic solar supply chain
Mar 19, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Moskowitz: Only Qcells and Hemlock Corning produce solar wafers in the US
“At the moment, there's only two companies, Qcells and Hemlock Corning, that are making wafers, are about to start making wafers in the United States.”
Scott Moskowitz Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 9:15 Scaling America's domestic solar supply chain
Mar 19, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Kann: US solar modules cost roughly three times the global average price
“We pay 30 cents a watt for solar modules in the US or something like that, and the global average price is probably 10 cents a watt.”
Shayle Kann Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 25:57 Scaling America's domestic solar supply chain
Mar 19, 2026 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Moskowitz: Nearly all solar panels purchased in the US are domestically assembled
“And, you know, we're at a point now where, you know, if you're a buyer of solar panels in the United States, pretty much every panel you're going to get is at least domestically assembled.”
Scott Moskowitz Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 6:55 Scaling America's domestic solar supply chain
Mar 19, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Moskowitz: US-made solar remains cost-competitive with other energy sources on LCOE
“Even when a product is made in the United States, and in solar, solar specifically, It is still cost competitive with other forms of technology. You look at Lazard's LCOE models and those cost charts, solar is always going to be right on the bottom, and that i…”
Scott Moskowitz Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 13:08 Scaling America's domestic solar supply chain
Mar 19, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kann: US solar power purchase agreement prices have risen in recent years
“Solar PPA prices have gone up over the past couple of years, not down, which is a narrative violation for some people, but it's true.”
Shayle Kann Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 28:12 Scaling America's domestic solar supply chain
Mar 19, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Moskowitz: US domestic solar module capacity of 40-50 GW meets total demand
“And, you know, at the moment, we have enough module capacity to supply U.S. Demand. That's, you know, 40 to 50 gigawatts a year, and there's probably even more than that.”
Scott Moskowitz Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 8:17 Scaling America's domestic solar supply chain
Mar 19, 2026 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Moskowitz: Clean energy is the only expanding US manufacturing sector
“Manufacturing as a whole has contracted in the United States over the last five years, except for clean energy manufacturing.”
Scott Moskowitz Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 23:49 Scaling America's domestic solar supply chain
Mar 26, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Shafer: US holds 90,000 tons of nuclear waste, adding 2,000 annually
“It's about 90,000 metric tons. We generate about 2000 metric tons a year.”
Dr. Jen Shafer (Jen Schaefer) Mar 26, 2026 ▶ 13:31 The state and future of nuclear waste
Mar 26, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Shafer: Yucca Mountain would already be legally full if opened today
“Right now, if Yucca Mountain was opened we had a 70, a legal limit of Yucca Mountain of 70,000 metric tons of material, right? So, at 90,000 metric tons, Yucca Mountain would nominally be full, right?”
Dr. Jen Shafer (Jen Schaefer) Mar 26, 2026 ▶ 31:37 The state and future of nuclear waste
Apr 2, 2026
Assertion Supported
Nolan: U.S.-mined uranium is often shipped abroad for conversion and back
“Today For us product to be mined, you know, it's shipped all the way out of the country to be converted in, in a lot of cases, and then shipped all the way back.”
Scott Nolan Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 36:44 Building a domestic nuclear fuel supply chain
Apr 2, 2026 bearish
Assertion Partly supported
Nolan: US has no commercial-scale domestic enrichers, relies on Europe and Russia
“If you look at enrichment today and what the U.S. Consumes, It's about 75% Europe, European producers and it's about 25% Russia. And so we can talk about the history of how we got here, but there's no commercial at scale U.S. Producer operating anywhere. There…”
Scott Nolan Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 13:04 Building a domestic nuclear fuel supply chain
Apr 2, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
US uranium enrichment market share dropped from 86% to under 0.1%
“And so we went from a place of 86% global market share down to less than .1% today by U.S. Companies or U.S. Entities.”
Scott Nolan Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 16:27 Building a domestic nuclear fuel supply chain
Apr 2, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
Nolan: General Matter will displace adversarial nuclear imports by 2030
“Building enough capacity there to satisfy HALU through the next decade, and then enough LEU capacity to displace adversarial imports into the US. And so that's the scale of it. That's where we're doing it. Timeline is, you know, Before end of decade.”
Scott Nolan Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 31:41 Building a domestic nuclear fuel supply chain
Apr 6, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Johnson: U.S. energy demand is rising for first time in two decades
“Energy demand is rising for the first time in two decades.”
Alfred Johnson Apr 6, 2026 ▶ 1:23 Frontier Forum: Why clean energy capital boomed in a volatile year [partner content]
Apr 23, 2026
Assertion Supported
Google's 2026 CapEx is 5-7x the entire US transmission spend
“We spend about 25 or thirty-five billion dollars a year in capex on transmission. Electricity transmission infrastructure in the United States, so this is five to seven times that amount, just from Google, just in one year.”
Shayle Kann Apr 23, 2026 ▶ 2:52 Inside Google’s massive AI capex (live)
May 7, 2026
Assertion Supported
Cohen: Electric trucks cost up to $500k versus $150k-$250k for diesel
“They've been, the electric trucks themselves have been fairly expensive in some cases, four or 500,000 dollars. A truck today, a tractor today is Somewhere between one 52 50 depending on the on, on what you're buying.”
Eyal Cohen May 7, 2026 ▶ 29:00 Cracking the code on autonomous trucking
Jun 4, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Kann: US, China, and EU battery-to-solar ratios lag at 9% to 20%
“The U.S. Down at 20%. China down at 18%. The EU down at nine percent.”
Shayle Kann Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 35:57 Surprising trends in global electricity generation
Jun 11, 2026 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chinese AV makers are commercializing faster globally than their US rivals
“The U.S. Leads in technological innovation, but China, once again, is quicker when it comes to commercialization. Not only inside China, but we're seeing the Chinese autonomous vehicle makers move into the Middle East, and in the U.K. And Germany now, moving q…”
Michael Dunne Jun 11, 2026 ▶ 20:23 How China is reshaping the global auto market
Jun 11, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Chinese EVs cost 30 to 40 percent less than Western competitors
“In terms of comparison to Europe and the United States, they're 30 to 40% less expensive.”
Michael Dunne Jun 11, 2026 ▶ 14:29 How China is reshaping the global auto market
Jun 11, 2026
Assertion Not checkable as stated
The US is essentially the only nation effectively blocking Chinese cars
“So we are basically more or less the only nation in the world that effectively blocks Chinese cars.”
Michael Dunne Jun 11, 2026 ▶ 9:26 How China is reshaping the global auto market
Jun 11, 2026
Insight
Chinese automakers will target high-margin US trucks and SUVs, not cheap EVs
“The Chinese are starved for profits, and when I talk to the Chinese manufacturers, they're far less interested in solving America's affordability program and far more interested in saying, how can we attack the larger SUV and pickup truck segments?”
Michael Dunne Jun 11, 2026 ▶ 27:31 How China is reshaping the global auto market
Jun 11, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2031
Chinese automakers will inevitably enter the US market via JVs or acquisitions
“Potentially, but I think realistically it's like gravity or water. The Chinese are going to find a way in and it may be by acquiring Stellantis or a Nissan or a plant inside or rebadging. It's a leap motor, but it's badged a Dodge and people start to show.”
Michael Dunne Jun 11, 2026 ▶ 32:40 How China is reshaping the global auto market
Jun 25, 2026
Assertion Supported
Kann: US high-voltage transmission builds fell from ~4,000 miles to hundreds
“In 2013, we built nearly 4000 miles of high-voltage transmission in the United States. Over the past few years, we've averaged hundreds.”
Shayle Kann Jun 25, 2026 ▶ 2:00 How data centers are complicating transmission expansion
Aug 11, 2026 negative
Opinion
Tillis: Reshoring all supply chains to the US is unsustainable
“I just think Fortress America and bring it all back home is unsustainable. It's also not strategic with respect to geopolitical considerations.”
Tom Tillis Aug 11, 2026 ▶ 15:31 Critical Capital: Senator Tillis' case for "all-of-the-above" energy
Aug 11, 2026 negative
Opinion
Tillis: US has entered a permanent populist era sustained by social media
“I believe that we have entered a permanent populist stage in this country, and I think that social media is the amplifier and the sustainer.”
Tom Tillis Aug 11, 2026 ▶ 4:26 Critical Capital: Senator Tillis' case for "all-of-the-above" energy
Aug 27, 2026
Assertion Supported
Khan: The US has 170 gigawatts of installed diesel generator capacity
“Which is why we still have a 170 gigawatts of these things. A 170 gigawatts in the United States alone.”
Shayle Kann Aug 27, 2026 ▶ 1:20 The rise of metal fuels
Sep 3, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Janous: US data center constraints will persist through 2030 and beyond
“All the stuff we thought we were going to build in this country, or thought we could build, a lot of that's not going to get built, because of all the things we've just been talking about. Like, I think that, and this problem is going to persist for the forese…”
Brian Janous Sep 3, 2026 ▶ 40:30 What comes after the data center backlash?
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