Opinion
Steele: Restricting fossil fuel development in emerging markets is hypocritical
“But I think if we're continuing to develop those resources in industrialized markets, it's kind of hard to say, like, well, don't do it in these markets that are still emerging.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Steele: 90% of Unelectrified People Will Live in Africa by 2030
“By 2030, 90% of people who don't have access to electricity will be living in Africa.”
Opinion
Steele: Solar home systems need no new tech breakthroughs to scale
“Honestly, the great thing about this is that there's very little technology development that needs to happen. You know, there's been, And batteries are already kind of where they need to be at. PV is where it needs to be at, the electronics, all of that.”
Insight
Steele: Microgrids combine the challenges of off-grid and centralized grids
“I think they have worked in a number of cases, but in some ways they're this hybrid where they have All of the challenges of an off-grid system and all of the challenges of a grid. And so figuring out the financing model, the operational model, like how you ac…”
Assertion Supported
Steele: About 300 Million Unelectrified People Can Afford Existing Solar Home Systems
“Even of the six hundred million people without access, you know, by our estimates at Nithio, we think about half of those people could afford a financed Solar home system that's available right now.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Steele: Electric transit may scale faster in East Africa than the US
“Electric motorbikes and electric public transit, I think is going to happen possibly faster in places like East Africa than in May in the U.S.”
Insight
Steele: Low-Income Consumers Are Aspirational and Reject Poorly Designed Low-Cost Products
“I think anyone who thinks, you know, very, very low-income people are not aspirational is not talking to anyone who's living in those situations. Absolutely people want cool stuff. People want, like, cell phones that are the latest and greatest, and that actua…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2037
Steele: Nigeria's Population Will Surpass the US in the Next 15 Years
“In the next 15 years, Nigeria's population is going to pass the U.S., So it'll be the third most populous country in the world.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Steele: Solar is cheaper and logistically easier than diesel in off-grid cases
“So for off-grid, the lower-cost solution actually is solar, and the logistically easier solution is solar, and in almost all cases.”
Assertion Contradicted
Steele: More Nigerians get power from diesel generators than the grid
“In Nigeria, more people get power from a diesel generator than they do from the grid.”
Assertion Supported
Steele: The continent of Africa produces 2% to 3% of global emissions
“You look at the entire continent of Africa, you know, produces two to three percent of global emissions.”
Assertion Supported
Steele: Most of Africa Lacks Strong Wind Energy Resources
“Most of Africa is actually not great wind resources so that's just given location.”
Assertion Supported
Steele: 90% of Climate Finance Goes to Mitigation Over Adaptation
“Like, 90% of climate finance right now goes to mitigation. It's all emissions reduction.”
Assertion Supported
Steele: 600M of 750M Unelectrified People Live in Sub-Saharan Africa
“Right now, globally, there's, call it, well, I'll use round numbers just because I think it's easier to anchor on that. Say, seven hundred and fifty million people globally who don't have access to electricity. Six hundred million of those are based in Sub-Sah…”
Assertion Supported
Steele: Average American Uses 75x More Electricity Per Year Than Average Kenyan
“Average U.S. Person uses, you probably know this, but 12 megawatt hours per year, roughly. If we're looking at some of the markets in Africa, we focus a lot on Kenya. Kenya is about a 150 kilowatt hours per year. A little bit above that. You know, you're looki…”
Assertion Partly supported
Steele: South Africa generates half of all African power, mostly from coal
“Half of the power generated in, in Africa is from South Africa. A lot of that is coal dominated as well.”
Assertion Supported
Steele: Kenya's power grid produces roughly 90% renewable energy
“Kenya's grid is actually about 75% installed capacity is renewable right now, and about 90% of the energy they produce is renewable. A lot of that is because of the focus on geothermal.”
