Prediction Held up
Johnson: Geologic hydrogen extraction costs should match natural gas extraction
“If you can find hydrogen under the ground, the reality is you should be able to produce it from a volumetric standpoint at a similar cost that we produce natural gas out of the ground.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2029
Johnson: Natural hydrogen and biogenic CO2 can reach aviation fuel parity
“You could even take, you know, natural hydrogen produced at optimized prices, combine that with biogenic CO two, and you could make kerosene for sustainable aviation fuel pretty darn close to cost parity to the kerosene that just comes out of oil refinery.”
Assertion Supported
Johnson: Natural hydrogen fields require just 1-3 MWh input per ton
“Our best estimates for a natural hydrogen field is probably somewhere in the neighborhood of one to three megawatt hours of energy in to pull a ton of hydrogen out. So that's one to three megawatt hours of parasitic costs of, you know, running compressors and …”
Opinion
Johnson: Geologic hydrogen rivals nuclear fusion in potential decarbonization impact
“I think geologic hydrogen should be mentioned in the same breath”
Opinion
Johnson: Geologic hydrogen reservoirs take thousands of years to recharge
“The, this is still, you know, our view is it's still, you're talking about thousands of years. Oil and gas, you're talking about millions of years, and this you might be talking about thousands or tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of years. There are …”
Assertion Supported
Johnson: Replacing methane power plants with hydrogen cuts emissions by 97%
“If we just said, okay, let's just assume you lose two percent methane, you lose two percent hydrogen. That means if I took that methane and I burned that in a power plant, or I took that hydrogen and I burned that in a power plant, and I'm losing the same amou…”
Assertion Supported
Johnson: USGS estimates geologic hydrogen resources could reach trillions of tons
“The USGS put out an estimate that this could be on the order of trillions of tons. You know, hundreds of years of energy.”
Insight
Johnson: Commercial hydrogen discoveries require 10k-50k tons annually over decades
“If you want to produce liquid hydrogen, you got to be producing 10,000 tons per year, give or take. If you want to be, you know, producing ammonia, you know, you're probably in the neighborhood of like, 50,000 tons per year is a good amount of hydrogen. So I w…”
Insight
Johnson: Underground helium traps prove geologic formations can seal hydrogen
“And the fact that we can find helium in traps and we find helium underground Tells you that there are sufficient traps and seals in nature that could hold a gas as small and light as hydrogen.”
Insight
Johnson: Microbes present a major preservation risk by consuming underground hydrogen
“If you get microbes into a hydrogen filled reservoir, that hydrogen will be gone. And so you have a preservation risk for hydrogen that you definitely wouldn't have for helium, which is, you know, no, nobody can metabolize that at all, but same with oil and ga…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Johnson: Mining companies understand geologic hydrogen source rocks best
“It's the mining companies that actually know the most about this type of hard rock that serves as a source rock for hydrogen.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Johnson: Industrial gas operators lose only 0.25% to 1% to leakage
“The best performers in industrial gas world, they lose about a quarter of a percent of their hydrogen from wellhead to customer delivery. The sort of the bottom quartile are around one percent.”
Insight
Johnson: A $10M stimulated hydrogen well needs $5M annual output
“If it's a ten million dollar system, you've got to pull out five million dollars a year of hydrogen out of that system to be comfortable with the return.”
Assertion Supported
Johnson: Serpentinization is the primary mechanism generating underground hydrogen
“Most people believe serpentinization is the main way that hydrogen forms under the ground, and look, we have hydrogen seeps have, that have been found and detected all over the planet.”
Assertion Supported
Johnson: Substantial natural hydrogen seeps emerge in Iceland and the mid-Atlantic
“We have hydrogen seeping out of the ground in the mid-Atlantic rift in the ocean, and that comes to the surface at Iceland, and there's a lot of hydrogen coming out of the ground in Iceland, so, so nobody questions that this reaction is happening over and over…”
Assertion Supported
Johnson: Green hydrogen electrolysis is at best roughly 60% energy efficient
“To electrolyze, to take renewable electricity and make a ton of hydrogen. Now that's totally green. You can do that carbon free. It's great in many ways, but you're going to put 50 to 55 megawatt hours of electricity into that system and pull out 33 megawatt h…”
Assertion Supported
Johnson: The United States already has 1,600 miles of hydrogen pipelines
“We've been moving hydrogen through pipelines in this country for decades. There's 1600 miles of hydrogen pipelines”
Assertion Supported
Johnson: Hydrogen accounts for 75% of ammonia production costs
“I mean, if you look at the economics on almost all these, 75% of the cost of ammonia is hydrogen.”
Assertion Partly supported
Johnson: A 1987 Mali well has produced high-purity hydrogen for decades
“There was a well drilled in 1987 in Mali, Africa, that was a water well that struck hydrogen and has been producing high purity hydrogen ever since. For, you know, for decades, and other wells have been drilled around that, and there, there's enough hydrogen p…”
Disclosure
Johnson: Koloma is actively exploring in over 10 US states
“We're active in over 10 states right now.”
Assertion Supported
Johnson: Approximately 50 to 60 companies are exploring for geologic hydrogen
“There's 50 or 60 companies working in the space, and, you know, I think most of them are pretty early in the game.”
