Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gariman: China will increasingly weaponize rare earth export controls for geopolitical leverage
“And my strong belief is the process for export control will be utilized a bit more in the future. And this will basically signal again that China is not really reliable on sourcing of rare earth magnets in the future as we go forward because they will use it a…”
Assertion Partly supported
Gariman: China produces 99% of heavy rare earth elements
“99% of heavy rare earth elements, more specifically terbium and dysprosium, comes from China, within China, and goes into magnets. So those are not available in mines outside China.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gariman: The Chinese government artificially controls rare earth market prices
“And the market price for rare earth elements often is artificially controlled by Chinese government.”
Assertion Contradicted
Gariman: No heavy rare earth deposits in Brazil or elsewhere are mined today
“Some of the deposits in, let's say, Brazil and other countries do carry a good amount of heavy rare earth elements, but none of those deposits are being mined today.”
Assertion Supported
Gariman: Chinese exports of rare earth magnets and metals face active disruptions
“So today the shipment of the magnets is really disrupted. It's not being shipped today. Magnets, oxides, metals, alloys, all of them, all the above are delayed in shipments.”
Assertion Supported
Garaman: Rare earths are a $20B market that unlocks trillions downstream
“Reverse elements on themselves are about, in 2024, twenty billion dollars market. But the downstream or the industry they unlock is in trillions of dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Garaman: Up to 85% of mined rare earth oxides have negative market value
“Universally, 7080, 85% of rare earth oxides are going to be negative value rare earth oxides in those mixed earth oxide baskets.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2032
Garaman: Cyclic Materials aims to recycle 2% of global rare earths by 2032
“Cyclic materials plan is by 2030, 31, 32, we will be recycling around two percent of the world rare earth elements.”
Assertion Supported
Gariman: China refines 90% of rare earths and makes 93% of magnets
“So 90% of rare earth elements now are processed and refined in China. And then they go one step ahead again, and they bring in even more material to China, and they manufacture 93% of magnets in China.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gariman: Western rare earth projects suffer due to Chinese equipment export limits
“In fact, I am aware of Companies that they really relied on those Chinese technologies, and now they are having challenges with bringing those equipment into the U.S. And Europe. So they, their projects have been suffering from that.”
Disclosure
Gariman: Automaker outreach to Cyclic Materials spiked massively amid supply chain panic
“And in fact, I will tell you in past three weeks, we have spoken to more car companies and others than we have spoken. We had spoken in past one and a half year or so.”
Assertion Partly supported
Garaman: China controls 90% of rare earth processing and 95% of magnets
“The processing is over 90% done in China, and magnet manufacturing over 95% done in China.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Garaman: Automakers will favor rare earth magnets once domestic supply chains mature
“Now, fast forward a few years, I believe with access to mining and downstream capacity in North America, engineers will still really like various magnets, and buyers also will like various magnets because they have multiple options for sourcing of various magn…”
Opinion
Garaman: Global rare earth recycling rates could eventually reach 40% to 50%
“And I believe rare earth elements also could be recycled at around 40, 45%, 50%.”
Assertion Supported
Gariman: Rare earth magnets enable the most efficient electric motors
“When we use Rare earth elements in magnets , we end up with the most strong magnets that we are aware of, or we can produce on our planet. And when we use very strong magnets in electric motors, we end up with highest efficiency in those electric motors.”
Assertion Supported
Gariman: China accounts for 63% of global rare earth mining
“63% of rare earth mining happens in China.”
Assertion Supported
Gariman: MP Materials deposit contains almost no heavy rare earths
“For instance, MP materials in the U.S. Basically has almost no heavy rare earths in, in, in the deposit, but they have a lot of lights in DPR.”
Assertion Supported
Gariman: China banned rare earth equipment and technology exports in December 2023
“Now, back in December of 2023 they enforced a ban on the export of equipment and technology related to rare earth elements.”
Assertion Supported
Ahmad Gariman: Vacuumschmelze and MP Materials are building US magnet facilities
“Vacuum Schmitz is building a large magnet manufacturing facility in South Carolina. MP Materials in Texas and a few other companies are building capacity.”
Assertion Partly supported
Ahmad Gariman: Solvay and Lynas are expanding Western rare earth separation
“Just last week, our own partner Solvay started their Plant in France again to separate rare earth elements, and Linus, an Australian company, is building capacity in Texas, I believe.”
Assertion Supported
Garaman: Magnet metals are 40% of rare earth volume, 95% of value
“From volume side, the five or six reverse elements that we use in permanent magnet manufacturing accounts for about 40% of reverse elements. So 40% of reverse elements go into magnets. The other 60% Does not. But here's the interesting thing. From dollar value…”
Assertion Supported
Garaman: Rare earth permanent magnets create the most efficient electric motors known
“So when we use rare earth permanent magnets, we happen to make the most efficient electric motors or generators out there that we know of.”
Assertion Supported
Garaman: Less than 1% of rare earth elements are recycled globally
“Rare earth elements are recycled less than one percent globally. Those are among the least circular metals that we know of out there.”
Assertion Supported
Garaman: DoD awarded Lynas over $200M for Texas rare earth refining capacity
“Department of Defense, Defense awarded Linus in Texas with over two hundred million dollars to build capacity on refining of mixtures, oxides”
