Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mills: Early US transformer shortage was driven by utility panic-buying
“But this wasn't, this was not the microchip problem, right? That was preventing automobiles from being produced, where, where literally you couldn't get the Componentry, the necessary input to produce the output. This was the toilet paper example, right? Where…”
Prediction Held up
Mills: DOE will compromise on proposed transformer efficiency standard
“They asked for public, the Department of Energy asked for public comment, and I think there was enough out there and enough concern expressed that I suspect a compromise position is going to come out. I don't think what they had originally released will actual…”
Assertion Supported
Mills: Pad-mounted transformer lead times reach as long as two years
“But those pad bound transformers, both single phase and three phase, still pretty darn long. I've seen things as long as two years right now on either.”
Assertion Supported
Mills: Building a new transformer plant costs $100M and takes 1-2 years
“And then if you really had no equipment availability, and you had to add a new facility or a new line, you're talking hundreds of millions of dollars, well, hundred million dollars of investment in order to get that facility stood up. And then the lead time to…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mills: Three-phase transformer shortage will last another 12 to 24 months
“I think the single phase pole problem is nearing the end of the line.
and then I think the single phase pad and three phase problem is probably going to be a little bit painful for the next 12 to 24 months, but then I think we're going to get to a period of s…”
Assertion Supported
Mills: Pole-mount transformer lead times are normalizing but remain up to a year
“The single-phase pole-mount transformers, the gray ones that are up on a utility pole, I think the supply chain there is getting closer to being caught up, right? And so lead times are normalizing. They still might be upwards of a full year just because of the…”
Assertion Supported
Mills: US transformer manufacturing capacity was likely flat from 2007 to 2021
“My gut tells me if you looked at the total capacity in the U.S. For building a transformer in 20 or 2007 versus 20 21, it was probably constant.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Mills: Storm-driven transformer replacement demand rose sharply after 2017
“We went back and looked historically, like, what was the demand on a transformer because of storm response? And we recognized that the level of, you know, kind of natural disaster from 20 17 forward was much more severe than the level of natural disaster pre-t…”
Assertion Supported
Mills: Cleveland-Cliffs is the only US grain-oriented steel maker
“It's a very specialized steel, and in the United States, there's literally one manufacturer that makes grain-oriented steel, and that's Cleveland Cliffs. And their plant is essentially operating at a hundred percent capacity.”
Assertion Supported
Mills: 95% to 98% of US transformers use grain-oriented steel
“The problem is about, I'm guessing, 95 to 98% of all the transformers that are being produced in America are using grain-oriented steel.”
Assertion Supported
Mills: Distribution transformer prices surged 75% to 100% over two years
“Pricing has increased a lot over the last couple of years. I would say on average, 75 to a hundred percent increase in price.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mills: Power electronics transformers remain years away from widespread adoption
“I think we're years out. It's a more expensive technology right now, just because of adoption. But in the long run, I think if we continue to invest, there could be some fruit on those trees.”
Assertion Supported
Mills: In 2018, distribution transformer lead times were 12 to 14 weeks
“In 2018, I think most customers, most utilities, Felt really, really comfortable with the distribution transformer supply chain. They'd pick up the phone, or they'd, they'd shoot over a PO, and in anywhere from 12 to 14 weeks, that transformer was showing up o…”
Assertion Supported
Mills: Most transformer manufacturing is in rural areas with scarce labor
“Most of the transformer manufacturing is happening out in rural America, smaller communities there's just not a ton of excess labor sitting out there.”
Prediction Held up
Mills projects distribution transformer prices will rise 0% to 5% in 2024
“Right now I'm projecting a, you know, a flat to a five percent increase in twenty-twenty-four.”
