Opinion
Gramlich: Hyperscalers fundamentally require full grid connection for five-nines reliability
“My understanding from the hyperscalers and the data center developers is that they all really, really want the Full network transmission service with all of the good, you know, backup and cushion that that network provides to their operations, and the Five Nin…”
Insight
Gramlich: Utilities resist cheap grid tech because it hurts rate base returns
“Our utilities love their capital in the rate base. They don't love quite so much cheap things that can solve problems without a lot of capital in the rate base. So that's the problem with grid enhancing technologies.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gramlich: US electric grid will face severe constraints for five years
“We're going to be, you know, putting a lot more both supply and demand on, and we're going to have a much more constrained grid, I think, for a good five years, and then depending on how long it takes us to build transmission, it could last longer.”
Prediction Partly held up
Gramlich: Electricity interconnection queue backlogs will not get worse
“I also don't expect the cues to get even worse than they are. I think there are a lot of activities to improve the cue processing issue.”
Assertion Partly supported
Gramlich: Only 55 miles of high-voltage transmission were built in 2023
“There were only 55 miles of new High voltage transmission lines in twenty-twenty-three, which is down, you know, a trickle from the 4000 you know, that had been built 10 years prior”
Assertion Supported
Gramlich: Energy Secretary Wright submitted a grid access rulemaking to FERC
“The Secretary of Energy, Secretary Wright, wrote this letter to FERC saying, you know, here's a rulemaking I'm putting before you, On access to the grid.”
Insight
Gramlich: Hyperscalers avoid funding transmission lines because competitors benefit equally
“If they're in that intense competition, like, company to company, then it's of much less interest, just much less incentive For, you know, them to go work on the network that all of their competitors get to use just as much as they do. So that's classic public…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2030
Gramlich expects Grain Belt Express transmission project will proceed without DOE loan
“The project I expect will go forward. It's a great project.”
Assertion Supported
Gramlich: Four US grid regions are planning 765 kV lines
“You've got seven 65 KV AC plans. We mentioned SPP, but MISO in the more of the, like, the Great Lakes part of the Midwest and is looking at seven 65 PJM as well, and they just came out with a new very much more ambitious plan than we've seen from them. In the …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gramlich: CAISO is the only US grid operator expanding transmission nonstop
“California ISO has continued. They've been cranking along quietly for many years. Pretty much they're the only ones who have kind of gone nonstop on transmission.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gramlich: US transmission buildout could reach thousands of miles annually
“Yeah, we could be getting into the few thousand or more miles per year.”
Assertion Supported
Gramlich: US lacks planning system for inter-regional transmission lines
“We don't really have a system in place to build inter-regional transmission from region to region, MISO to SPP, or SPP to the interior west, or interior west to the coast, all of these neighboring regions, there's a massive untapped value of transmission there…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gramlich: US House will move quickly on NEPA permitting reform
“I expect to see the House moving pretty quickly on, on one piece, the NEPA-related piece and that'll be an important milestone.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gramlich: Some inter-regional transmission lines will get built without permitting reform
“Some of these lines are, you know, looking very, very promising, so I do think we will get some of those under the current regime, even if we don't get permitting reform, but if we get permitting reform you know, and or significant FERC action in the interregi…”
Assertion Supported
Gramlich: High-capacity transmission buildout has dropped 90% since 2013
“So for the last decade, there really wasn't much, and kind of now it's dried up to a trickle. Like, we're down in the, you know, couple of hundred miles of high capacity, so less than 10% of what we did a decade ago, and that's kind of where we are.”
Assertion Supported
Gramlich: US transmission congestion costs doubled from 2020 to 2021
“We just put out a grid strategies report saying it finding it doubled from a 2020 to 20 21, and pretty soon we'll get 20 22 data.”
Assertion Supported
Gramlich: Grid interconnection times and costs have more than doubled
“Interconnection to the bulk power system used to take one or two years. Now, it's over four years on, on average. So, it's more than doubled in terms of the time frame of processing. And the cost has more than doubled as well. It used to be in the hundred doll…”
Assertion Supported
Gramlich: US grid queue holds 2 TW, exceeding total existing capacity
“There's about two terawatts of generation in the queue. It's almost all wind, solar, and storage. And there's only about a terawatt and a quarter of generating capacity operating on the grid right now.”
Insight
Gramlich: Transmission bottleneck is caused by cost recovery, not capital shortages
“There's no, there's never been a shortage of investment capital for this business, but there's a shortage of ways to get your money back when you build useful lines.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gramlich: IRA and infrastructure law included very little for electricity transmission
“There really wasn't very much for transmission in the Inflation Reduction Act or bipartisan infrastructure law.”
Prediction Held up
Gramlich: FERC interconnection reform will proceed despite incoming commissioner turnover
“The FERC reform rulemaking is likely to proceed, regardless of new commissioners coming, just because, like, that one was actually passed on a The proposal was passed on a bipartisan five-zero vote at FERC.”
Assertion Supported
Gramlich: US built around 880 miles of transmission in 2024
“There was an uptick to, like, 800 eighty-ish miles in twenty-twenty-four.”
Assertion Supported
Gramlich: Transmission lines completed in 2024 began 10 to 15 years ago
“These were lines that were, like, begun 10 or 15 years ago that just finally got finished.”
Assertion Supported
Gramlich: IRA includes $760 million for communities hosting transmission lines
“One little provision we got into the Inflation Reduction Act is this seven hundred sixty million dollar program for kind of local community economic development, sort of hosting you know, benefits for counties or local communities.”
