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Feb 23, 2023 · 41m · catalyst

2023 trends: biomass, ESG, batteries and more

Nat Bullard · 21m spoken Shayle Kann · 13m spoken
0:00 / 0:00

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In this episode of Catalyst, host Shayle Khan and energy analyst Nat Bullard examine key findings from Bullard's annual decarbonization report, analyzing critical trends in land use, biomass economics, China's clean energy dominance, ESG market sentiment, and global battery supply chains.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Shayle holds 34.8% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

Shayle as informed peer 4.1 Guest teaching 3.0 Guest disagreement 0.7 Shayle pushing back 1.1
05100:0015:0030:000:46–5:54 · Shayle as informed peer 0/10 Commercial Break: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub Monologue ad break and show introduction. No host-guest dynamic or technical debate is present.5:55–14:02 · Shayle as informed peer 6/10 Corn Ethanol, Land Use, and Biomass-to-X Realities Kann and Bullard collaboratively dissect US corn ethanol land usage and the systemic risks facing the biomass-to-X sector. Kann brings deep sector knowledge regarding waste biomass economics and political primary dynamics in Iowa.14:02–17:12 · Shayle as informed peer 5/10 Global Agricultural Efficiency and Land Peak Trends Bullard explains how global agricultural land use peaked two decades ago due to ocean aquaculture and crop efficiency. Kann complements this by citing recent data on reduced palm oil deforestation.17:13–22:16 · Shayle as informed peer 5/10 China's Renewable Energy Scale and Power Sector Dynamics Bullard details China's massive renewable buildout alongside drought-driven hydro shortfalls and coal utilization realities. Kann weighs in on the law of large numbers governing Chinese grid additions despite low capacity factors.22:21–31:39 · Shayle as informed peer 6/10 Mid-roll Sponsor Break: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub Following the mid-roll ad read, Kann and Bullard analyze the backlash against ESG metrics and falling fund flows. Kann argues that grouping E, S, and G creates flawed Frankenstein scores using Tesla as an example, while Bullard frames them as distinct risk screens.31:39–40:05 · Shayle as informed peer 7/10 Battery Cost Pressures, Supply Chains, and Asian Manufacturing Dominance Kann demonstrates strong sector expertise reminding listeners about the divergence between battery pack and total balance-of-system EPC costs, drawing direct parallels to historical solar cost declines. Bullard analyzes Asian battery manufacturing dominance and chemistry shifts like LFP.40:07–41:27 · Shayle as informed peer 0/10 Episode Conclusion and Part Two Preview Host outro and credits wrap-up for part one of the interview.0:46–5:54 · Guest teaching 0/10 Commercial Break: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub Monologue ad break and show introduction. No host-guest dynamic or technical debate is present.5:55–14:02 · Guest teaching 4/10 Corn Ethanol, Land Use, and Biomass-to-X Realities Kann and Bullard collaboratively dissect US corn ethanol land usage and the systemic risks facing the biomass-to-X sector. Kann brings deep sector knowledge regarding waste biomass economics and political primary dynamics in Iowa.14:02–17:12 · Guest teaching 4/10 Global Agricultural Efficiency and Land Peak Trends Bullard explains how global agricultural land use peaked two decades ago due to ocean aquaculture and crop efficiency. Kann complements this by citing recent data on reduced palm oil deforestation.17:13–22:16 · Guest teaching 5/10 China's Renewable Energy Scale and Power Sector Dynamics Bullard details China's massive renewable buildout alongside drought-driven hydro shortfalls and coal utilization realities. Kann weighs in on the law of large numbers governing Chinese grid additions despite low capacity factors.22:21–31:39 · Guest teaching 4/10 Mid-roll Sponsor Break: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub Following the mid-roll ad read, Kann and Bullard analyze the backlash against ESG metrics and falling fund flows. Kann argues that grouping E, S, and G creates flawed Frankenstein scores using Tesla as an example, while Bullard frames them as distinct risk screens.31:39–40:05 · Guest teaching 4/10 Battery Cost Pressures, Supply Chains, and Asian Manufacturing Dominance Kann demonstrates strong sector expertise reminding listeners about the divergence between battery pack and total balance-of-system EPC costs, drawing direct parallels to historical solar cost declines. Bullard analyzes Asian battery manufacturing dominance and chemistry shifts like LFP.40:07–41:27 · Guest teaching 0/10 Episode Conclusion and Part Two Preview Host outro and credits wrap-up for part one of the interview.0:46–5:54 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Commercial Break: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub Monologue ad break and show introduction. No host-guest dynamic or technical debate is present.5:55–14:02 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Corn Ethanol, Land Use, and Biomass-to-X Realities Kann and Bullard collaboratively dissect US corn ethanol land usage and the systemic risks facing the biomass-to-X sector. Kann brings deep sector knowledge regarding waste biomass economics and political primary dynamics in Iowa.14:02–17:12 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Global Agricultural Efficiency and Land Peak Trends Bullard explains how global agricultural land use peaked two decades ago due to ocean aquaculture and crop efficiency. Kann complements this by citing recent data on reduced palm oil deforestation.17:13–22:16 · Guest disagreement 1/10 China's Renewable Energy Scale and Power Sector Dynamics Bullard details China's massive renewable buildout alongside drought-driven hydro shortfalls and coal utilization realities. Kann weighs in on the law of large numbers governing Chinese grid additions despite low capacity factors.22:21–31:39 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Mid-roll Sponsor Break: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub Following the mid-roll ad read, Kann and Bullard analyze the backlash against ESG metrics and falling fund flows. Kann argues that grouping E, S, and G creates flawed Frankenstein scores using Tesla as an example, while Bullard frames them as distinct risk screens.31:39–40:05 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Battery Cost Pressures, Supply Chains, and Asian Manufacturing Dominance Kann demonstrates strong sector expertise reminding listeners about the divergence between battery pack and total balance-of-system EPC costs, drawing direct parallels to historical solar cost declines. Bullard analyzes Asian battery manufacturing dominance and chemistry shifts like LFP.40:07–41:27 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Episode Conclusion and Part Two Preview Host outro and credits wrap-up for part one of the interview.0:46–5:54 · Shayle pushing back 0/10 Commercial Break: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub Monologue ad break and show introduction. No host-guest dynamic or technical debate is present.5:55–14:02 · Shayle pushing back 2/10 Corn Ethanol, Land Use, and Biomass-to-X Realities Kann and Bullard collaboratively dissect US corn ethanol land usage and the systemic risks facing the biomass-to-X sector. Kann brings deep sector knowledge regarding waste biomass economics and political primary dynamics in Iowa.14:02–17:12 · Shayle pushing back 1/10 Global Agricultural Efficiency and Land Peak Trends Bullard explains how global agricultural land use peaked two decades ago due to ocean aquaculture and crop efficiency. Kann complements this by citing recent data on reduced palm oil deforestation.17:13–22:16 · Shayle pushing back 1/10 China's Renewable Energy Scale and Power Sector Dynamics Bullard details China's massive renewable buildout alongside drought-driven hydro shortfalls and coal utilization realities. Kann weighs in on the law of large numbers governing Chinese grid additions despite low capacity factors.22:21–31:39 · Shayle pushing back 2/10 Mid-roll Sponsor Break: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub Following the mid-roll ad read, Kann and Bullard analyze the backlash against ESG metrics and falling fund flows. Kann argues that grouping E, S, and G creates flawed Frankenstein scores using Tesla as an example, while Bullard frames them as distinct risk screens.31:39–40:05 · Shayle pushing back 2/10 Battery Cost Pressures, Supply Chains, and Asian Manufacturing Dominance Kann demonstrates strong sector expertise reminding listeners about the divergence between battery pack and total balance-of-system EPC costs, drawing direct parallels to historical solar cost declines. Bullard analyzes Asian battery manufacturing dominance and chemistry shifts like LFP.40:07–41:27 · Shayle pushing back 0/10 Episode Conclusion and Part Two Preview Host outro and credits wrap-up for part one of the interview.

speaking balance: gold is Shayle, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · Shayle 34.4% · guest 65.6%0:00 · Shayle 34.4% · guest 65.6%3:00 · Shayle 67.7% · guest 32.3%3:00 · Shayle 67.7% · guest 32.3%6:00 · Shayle 75.1% · guest 24.9%6:00 · Shayle 75.1% · guest 24.9%9:00 · Shayle 13.5% · guest 86.5%9:00 · Shayle 13.5% · guest 86.5%12:00 · Shayle 48.6% · guest 51.4%12:00 · Shayle 48.6% · guest 51.4%15:00 · Shayle 36.3% · guest 63.7%15:00 · Shayle 36.3% · guest 63.7%18:00 · Shayle 3.3% · guest 96.7%18:00 · Shayle 3.3% · guest 96.7%21:00 · Shayle 15.5% · guest 84.5%21:00 · Shayle 15.5% · guest 84.5%24:00 · Shayle 33.8% · guest 66.2%24:00 · Shayle 33.8% · guest 66.2%27:00 · Shayle 24.8% · guest 75.2%27:00 · Shayle 24.8% · guest 75.2%30:00 · Shayle 28.2% · guest 71.8%30:00 · Shayle 28.2% · guest 71.8%33:00 · Shayle 29.9% · guest 70.1%33:00 · Shayle 29.9% · guest 70.1%36:00 · Shayle 28% · guest 72%36:00 · Shayle 28% · guest 72%39:00 · Shayle 51.8% · guest 48.2%39:00 · Shayle 51.8% · guest 48.2%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 30:22 Bullard reframing ESG metrics as risk screens

In a very collegial conversation, Bullard gently pushes back against treating ESG as an all-encompassing rating, arguing instead that fund managers must treat them as disaggregated, independent risk screens.

 Hardest push from Shayle ▶ 29:15 Kann dissecting bundled ESG rating flaws

Kann challenges the foundational framework of ESG investing, pointing out how combining environmental, social, and governance factors creates unworkable composite scores where companies like Tesla are mischaracterized.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 6:08 Bullard breaking down US corn ethanol land usage

Bullard educates Kann and the audience with exact figures showing that 38% of the US corn crop goes to ethanol to offset only 10% of motor gasoline, occupying an area equivalent to the size of England.

 Shayle holds their own ▶ 35:09 Kann detailing balance-of-system cost dynamics in batteries

Kann demonstrates deep domain authority by explaining how EPC, labor, and balance-of-system costs diverge from raw cell prices, drawing lessons directly from the solar industry's cost trajectory.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicShayle as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementShayle pushing backWhy
Commercial Break: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub 0000 Monologue ad break and show introduction. No host-guest dynamic or technical debate is present.
Corn Ethanol, Land Use, and Biomass-to-X Realities 6412 Kann and Bullard collaboratively dissect US corn ethanol land usage and the systemic risks facing the biomass-to-X sector. Kann brings deep sector knowledge regarding waste biomass economics and political primary dynamics in Iowa.
Global Agricultural Efficiency and Land Peak Trends 5411 Bullard explains how global agricultural land use peaked two decades ago due to ocean aquaculture and crop efficiency. Kann complements this by citing recent data on reduced palm oil deforestation.
China's Renewable Energy Scale and Power Sector Dynamics 5511 Bullard details China's massive renewable buildout alongside drought-driven hydro shortfalls and coal utilization realities. Kann weighs in on the law of large numbers governing Chinese grid additions despite low capacity factors.
Mid-roll Sponsor Break: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub 6412 Following the mid-roll ad read, Kann and Bullard analyze the backlash against ESG metrics and falling fund flows. Kann argues that grouping E, S, and G creates flawed Frankenstein scores using Tesla as an example, while Bullard frames them as distinct risk screens.
Battery Cost Pressures, Supply Chains, and Asian Manufacturing Dominance 7412 Kann demonstrates strong sector expertise reminding listeners about the divergence between battery pack and total balance-of-system EPC costs, drawing direct parallels to historical solar cost declines. Bullard analyzes Asian battery manufacturing dominance and chemistry shifts like LFP.
Episode Conclusion and Part Two Preview 0000 Host outro and credits wrap-up for part one of the interview.

Statements from this episode (9)

Assertion Supported
Bullard: 38% of US corn crop meets only 10% of gasoline demand
“So we grow in the range of about fourteen billion bushels of corn every year in the United States. Of that, last year, 38% of it went to ethanol that's being used for fuels. Which means that about 40% of the U.S. Corn crop meets about 10% of our motor gasoline…”
Nat Bullard Feb 23, 2023 ▶ 6:24
Assertion Supported
Bullard: Global agricultural land use peaked around 2000 at over 37%
“We had a peak in the total percentage of global land area used for agriculture right around the turn of the millennium, a little bit more than 37%. And let's be clear, it hasn't come down massively. It's come down maybe one percent of total global land area.”
Nat Bullard Feb 23, 2023 ▶ 14:28
Assertion Supported
Kann: China's renewable energy generation surpasses the US and Europe combined
“Renewable energy generation in China has now surpassed all of Europe put together. It has also surpassed U.S. Renewable energy generation. It's growing across all places, but it is growing by far the fastest in China.”
Shayle Kann Feb 23, 2023 ▶ 17:33
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bullard: Small shifts in China's coal use equal a top-10 nation's power demand
“China's little moves in coal consumption are like the size of top 10 country electricity consumption in any given year.”
Nat Bullard Feb 23, 2023 ▶ 19:35
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bullard: Political anti-ESG sentiment is almost uniquely a US phenomenon
“Anti-ESG sentiment is at the political level almost uniquely U.S. It's something that happens really only here. It's not nearly as big of a topic in Europe at a sort of polity level, or definitely not at like a local politics level”
Nat Bullard Feb 23, 2023 ▶ 25:28
Assertion Supported
Bullard: ESG ETF inflows hit 2022 low when Elon Musk attacked ESG
“The lowest month of ESG ETF inflows was the first time that Elon Musk said that ESG is a scam. That was in May of last year.”
Nat Bullard Feb 23, 2023 ▶ 30:36
Assertion Supported
Bullard: Lithium-ion battery pack prices rose 7% in 2022
“The weighted average pack price for lithium ion batteries went up year on year last year. So 20, 21 actually came very, very close to going up. If you hadn't used full year data, it would have been close. But last year, the weighted average pack price was up a…”
Nat Bullard Feb 23, 2023 ▶ 32:21
Assertion Supported
Bullard: Four-hour battery storage system costs surged 25% in 2022
“The four-hour system cost for, you know, an energy storage system went up 25% last year.”
Nat Bullard Feb 23, 2023 ▶ 32:51
Assertion Supported
Kann: Top ten lithium-ion battery manufacturers are all Asian companies
“The top 10 manufacturers of lithium ion batteries are all based in Asia. Which is pretty interesting. So not all based in China. So this is the interesting dynamic about battery manufacturing at the moment. It is, yes, CATL, which is a Chinese company, is the …”
Shayle Kann Feb 23, 2023 ▶ 37:03
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