Assertion Supported
Moffat: Dairy RNG hits -500g CO2 carbon intensity compared to fossil gas
“Fossil natural gas has a carbon intensity over
60 grams of CO₂ per unit whereas renewable gas is typically lower carbon landfill gas probably being the closest to fossil natural gas, anywhere from a 20 to 40 grams of CO₂, whereas a dairy project could be like …”
Assertion Supported
Moffat: JPL found capped California landfills remain major methane emitters
“The Jet Propulsion Lab did, flew the landfills in California, as an example, and even though they had landfill gas capture, they still were a major emitter of methane.”
Insight
Moffat: 10–20 year utility RNG contracts beat volatile spot subsidies
“I actually am totally fine with moving gas to a utility at a lower price, because they're usually willing to sign terms, so 10 or 20 years, and so that just makes lots of logical sense versus a highly volatile LCFS and RIN market.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moffat: RNG sector will see buyer attrition due to operational complexity
“Other ones is going to be an entirely new kettle of fish that's going to be really hard for them to be able to figure out because you've got to go manage this, these facilities, and there are smaller volumes, and they require more attention, and so I would say…”
Assertion Supported
Moffat: Synthetic methane costs over $30/MMBtu with near-zero carbon intensity
“It is going to be more money, so you're going to be in the over 30 dollars in MMBT to be able to sell it, and your carbon intensity is not going to be negative. It's going to be hovering around zero or a little higher depending on your renewable mix that you p…”
Assertion Partly supported
Moffat: Canadian natural gas delivers 8,000 petajoules versus 3,000 for electricity
“I think the north, or the Canadian electricity grid on a total energy basis is like two to 3000 petajoules of energy. The natural gas system for both home heating and industrial use is like 8000 petajoules, and so you're not going to be able to get away from g…”
Assertion Supported
Moffat: Renewable natural gas is only at roughly 2% market penetration
“And so I think you're probably two-ish percent penetration Of the 10 to 15 we talked about, ah, and really the wastewater treatment side and the food waste side is largely untapped, ah, right now”
Assertion Supported
Moffat: Many US wastewater plants flare usable biogas
“There's many wastewater treatment plants in the United States that just flare that gas, and you're like, what are you doing? Like, let's look to see what we can do to be able to refine that and utilize that, whether it's in truck fleets or just injecting it in…”
Assertion Supported
Moffat: Stacking RINs and LCFS pushes dairy RNG to $70–$90/MMBtu
“Where landfill RNG to the utility market may move for 10 to 20 dollars in MMBTU. They can be north of 50 dollars in MMBTU by the time they take the RIN and the LCFS credit in consideration, so they get in a transportation setting, and so the same for dairy. Li…”
Assertion Supported
Moffat: Dairy RNG is displacing landfill gas in California
“Because of the carbon intensity of dairy gas, and because they're trying to bend the curve on those carbon emissions, you're seeing dairy gas displace landfill gas, at least in California.”
Opinion
Moffat: Know-how and development capital are the primary RNG bottlenecks
“The know-how and the labor, and the other one is the development capital to be able to put these projects together are probably the two gating, gating items to move in this industry forward even faster.”
Assertion Supported
Moffat: Landfill gas supplies the majority of RNG produced today
“Where a majority of the RNG comes from today is from landfill gas.”
Assertion Supported
Moffat: Unsubsidized landfill RNG sells for $10 to $20 per MMBTU
“What we've seen from the revenue side or what that gas sells for, it will be anywhere from 10 dollars to 20 dollars a MMBTU is what that gas sells for in the non
LCFS RIN markets. So if this is going to utilities or voluntary buyers, typically you're seeing t…”
Assertion Supported
Moffat: Food waste RNG costs $10 to $30 per MMBtu
“Cost of production I would say the market on that is ranging from anywhere from low teens to low thirties in terms of price per, per MMBTU, and that's where the market is for that, and that's because that carbon intensity of that gas will move kind of from, Oh…”
Assertion Supported
Moffat: RNG credit value shifted from mostly LCFS to 70% RINs
“What I'd tell you today probably would be sort of 70% RIN, 30% LCFS. Well, depending on which source of gas and where the market goes, all of a sudden that seems to swing back around. So they seem to stabilize each other, so the average range of 50 to 90, depe…”
