Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Chinese sodium-ion prices will undercut LFP by 2030, Mossberg predicts
“From the quotes and what we're hearing from the suppliers, not just cells, but also materials, we see a really low-risk pathway to the crossover point on price with LFP coming somewhere between twenty-twenty-eight and twenty-thirty out of China.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Waiting 4-5 years cedes sodium-ion economy of scale to China
“So if we wait for, Four or five years to get into this game, we're going to be in a similar place that we are today on LFP, but, ah, today at least, you're not facing such a huge, ah, economy of scale challenge.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Peak Energy reaches balance-of-system cost parity with LFP today
“We try to depopulate a lot of the subsystems that drive cost, complexity, and energy density loss here. And what that lets us do is actually get to a balance of system cost Despite a serious energy density penalty that is already today pretty much on par with …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Peak Energy's passive sodium-ion system uses 50x less aux power than LFP
“Just on aux power, we're 50 times, a little bit more than 50 times more efficient. We use 50 times less power than an equivalent LFP system.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Peak Energy claims $75/kWh NPV benefit over LFP in hot climates
“If you add all that stuff together, we're at about, in a hot region, like let's take like Miami or Phoenix, we're at about a 75 dollar per kilowatt hour NPV benefit on a TCO basis versus an equivalent LFP system.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
NFPP retains 94.5% health at 3,000 cycles versus LFP's 80%
“We got two cells, equivalent cells, same size on test in our lab right now. LFP is at about 26,026 hundred cycles, and it's at 80% state of health. NFPP is almost 3000 cycles same cell, and we're at 95 94.5 percent.”
Assertion Supported
Mossberg: Global sodium-ion battery capacity is between 30 and 100 GWh
“You'd be pretty safe in saying there's at least 30 gigawatt hours, probably as much as a hundred gigawatt hours of sodium ion capacity worldwide for all different variants”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
NFPP sodium-ion cells currently cost $15-$30/kWh more than LFP
“Depending on which LFP you're comparing to, the cells that we're working on are somewhere between 15 to 30 dollars per kilowatt hour more expensive than equivalent LFP on a cost per kilowatt hour basis.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2028
Mossberg: Sodium-ion cell prices will drop ~$20/kWh over next 2–3 years
“We can see pretty clearly for the next two years, because we have quotes from both from raw material suppliers and from cell suppliers that take the, you know, like the price is falling by about 20 dollars per kilowatt hour over the next two, two-ish years, tw…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mossberg: Sodium-ion cells will remain ~$10/kWh more expensive than LFP in 2028
“I think we'll still be about a 10 dollar per kilowatt hour more expensive if you talk like 20, 28.”
Assertion Supported
Peak Energy deploying world's first passively cooled grid-scale sodium-ion battery
“The first three and a half megawatt hour unit of capacity is going into the grid right now, and in Denver, it's going to be the largest outside of China. All that's exciting, but what I'm really excited about is that it's the first passively completely passive…”
Assertion Supported
Mossberg: Almost all global sodium-ion battery capacity is in China
“Almost all of it's in China. There's some sort of token projects and stuff elsewhere, but almost all of it's in China.”
Assertion Partly supported
Hardware is only one-third of total grid battery project costs
“Today, you know, the cost of the hardware is probably only about a third of the total project cost. O&M, so all operating and maintenance, including Like, degradation maintenance, aux power, RTE losses, that is about another third of the total cost, NPV'd at, …”
Assertion Supported
Mossberg: LFP battery prices have dropped by roughly half in two years
“Two years ago, LFP was twice as, almost twice as expensive as it is today”
Assertion Supported
Mossberg: CATL hybrid vehicle battery packs combine sodium-ion and LFP
“CATL is been very vocal about their hybrid pack technology where they're using, I think it's a layered oxide based sodium ion, but they basically have some portion of a vehicle pack that is sodium for primarily for power and for cold weather performance, and t…”
Assertion Supported
Mossberg: Chinese sodium-ion stationary storage demonstrators are at tens of MWh scale
“You saw the first announcements kind of late last year, early this year with first sort of demonstrator projects, and those are in the, like, tens of megawatt hour scale.
and we know there are multiple other in the pipeline.”
Assertion Supported
Chinese policy gives non-lithium storage priority in interconnection queues
“Some of this is driven by some policy in China that,
That provided projects that, that do non-lithium storage with some preference in, like, interconnect queue speed and stuff like that, or the equivalent of whatever the interconnect queue is in China.
and …”
Assertion Supported
The US holds the world's largest natural trona reserves
“The U S has the world's largest natural, naturally exploitable proven Trona reserves.”
