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Jan 22, 2026 · 26m · catalyst

More 2026 trends: Solar costs, oil oversupply, and the startup slump

Nat Bullard · 13m spoken Shayle Kann · 6m spoken
0:00 / 0:00

gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions

Host Shail Khan and climate tech analyst Nat Bullard analyze key empirical data points from Bullard's annual presentation deck, examining macroeconomic shifts, clean energy financial trends, global oil oversupply, and international manufacturing dynamics across the evolving energy transition.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Shayle holds 26.8% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

Shayle as informed peer 5.5 Guest teaching 3.9 Guest disagreement 1.1 Shayle pushing back 1.6
05100:0010:0020:002:14–5:04 · Shayle as informed peer 5/10 Welcome to Part Two with Nat Bullard Shayle frames the segment around public clean energy stock performance violating common narratives. Nat elaborates with index data comparing clean energy against the S&P and NASDAQ in a collaborative peer dynamic.5:04–8:46 · Shayle as informed peer 7/10 The Energy Startup Slump and Investment Rebound Predictions Shayle leans heavily into his venture capital background, challenging Nat's modest prediction for startup investment rebounds with a bullish 'hard over' bet driven by AI and data center power demand.8:47–10:52 · Shayle as informed peer 5/10 Analyzing Global Oil Oversupply and Market Dynamics Nat details IEA data showing 5 million barrels per day of excess supply damping prices. Shayle integrates this with geopolitics by questioning the Trump administration's heavy crude strategy in Venezuela.10:56–15:07 · Shayle as informed peer 6/10 Sponsor Messages: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub Following ad reads, both former solar analysts discuss the disconnect between plunging module prices and rising installed system costs due to tariffs, soft costs, and labor.15:07–18:35 · Shayle as informed peer 6/10 Australia's Explosive Residential Battery Storage Adoption After marveling at Australia's 40,000 monthly residential battery installations, Shayle pushes back against Nat's analogy comparing transformer manufacturing constraints to gas turbines.18:36–21:11 · Shayle as informed peer 5/10 China's Growing Dominance in Global Automotive Manufacturing Nat educates Shayle on the sheer scale of China's automotive dominance, sharing firsthand observations from Southeast Asia and posing key questions on the displacement of used Western vehicles in emerging markets.21:11–23:46 · Shayle as informed peer 6/10 China's Rapid Deployment of Electric Commercial Trucks Shayle and Nat contrast China's surging deployment of electric medium and heavy-duty trucks with the stalled adoption narrative in the US and Europe.23:48–25:58 · Shayle as informed peer 4/10 AI Load Forecasting Uncertainty and Concluding Thoughts The episode wraps up warmly with Nat reading quotes illustrating extreme forecasting uncertainty around AI data center loads, agreeing on the humility needed in energy modeling.2:14–5:04 · Guest teaching 3/10 Welcome to Part Two with Nat Bullard Shayle frames the segment around public clean energy stock performance violating common narratives. Nat elaborates with index data comparing clean energy against the S&P and NASDAQ in a collaborative peer dynamic.5:04–8:46 · Guest teaching 2/10 The Energy Startup Slump and Investment Rebound Predictions Shayle leans heavily into his venture capital background, challenging Nat's modest prediction for startup investment rebounds with a bullish 'hard over' bet driven by AI and data center power demand.8:47–10:52 · Guest teaching 4/10 Analyzing Global Oil Oversupply and Market Dynamics Nat details IEA data showing 5 million barrels per day of excess supply damping prices. Shayle integrates this with geopolitics by questioning the Trump administration's heavy crude strategy in Venezuela.10:56–15:07 · Guest teaching 4/10 Sponsor Messages: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub Following ad reads, both former solar analysts discuss the disconnect between plunging module prices and rising installed system costs due to tariffs, soft costs, and labor.15:07–18:35 · Guest teaching 4/10 Australia's Explosive Residential Battery Storage Adoption After marveling at Australia's 40,000 monthly residential battery installations, Shayle pushes back against Nat's analogy comparing transformer manufacturing constraints to gas turbines.18:36–21:11 · Guest teaching 6/10 China's Growing Dominance in Global Automotive Manufacturing Nat educates Shayle on the sheer scale of China's automotive dominance, sharing firsthand observations from Southeast Asia and posing key questions on the displacement of used Western vehicles in emerging markets.21:11–23:46 · Guest teaching 5/10 China's Rapid Deployment of Electric Commercial Trucks Shayle and Nat contrast China's surging deployment of electric medium and heavy-duty trucks with the stalled adoption narrative in the US and Europe.23:48–25:58 · Guest teaching 3/10 AI Load Forecasting Uncertainty and Concluding Thoughts The episode wraps up warmly with Nat reading quotes illustrating extreme forecasting uncertainty around AI data center loads, agreeing on the humility needed in energy modeling.2:14–5:04 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Welcome to Part Two with Nat Bullard Shayle frames the segment around public clean energy stock performance violating common narratives. Nat elaborates with index data comparing clean energy against the S&P and NASDAQ in a collaborative peer dynamic.5:04–8:46 · Guest disagreement 2/10 The Energy Startup Slump and Investment Rebound Predictions Shayle leans heavily into his venture capital background, challenging Nat's modest prediction for startup investment rebounds with a bullish 'hard over' bet driven by AI and data center power demand.8:47–10:52 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Analyzing Global Oil Oversupply and Market Dynamics Nat details IEA data showing 5 million barrels per day of excess supply damping prices. Shayle integrates this with geopolitics by questioning the Trump administration's heavy crude strategy in Venezuela.10:56–15:07 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Sponsor Messages: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub Following ad reads, both former solar analysts discuss the disconnect between plunging module prices and rising installed system costs due to tariffs, soft costs, and labor.15:07–18:35 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Australia's Explosive Residential Battery Storage Adoption After marveling at Australia's 40,000 monthly residential battery installations, Shayle pushes back against Nat's analogy comparing transformer manufacturing constraints to gas turbines.18:36–21:11 · Guest disagreement 1/10 China's Growing Dominance in Global Automotive Manufacturing Nat educates Shayle on the sheer scale of China's automotive dominance, sharing firsthand observations from Southeast Asia and posing key questions on the displacement of used Western vehicles in emerging markets.21:11–23:46 · Guest disagreement 1/10 China's Rapid Deployment of Electric Commercial Trucks Shayle and Nat contrast China's surging deployment of electric medium and heavy-duty trucks with the stalled adoption narrative in the US and Europe.23:48–25:58 · Guest disagreement 0/10 AI Load Forecasting Uncertainty and Concluding Thoughts The episode wraps up warmly with Nat reading quotes illustrating extreme forecasting uncertainty around AI data center loads, agreeing on the humility needed in energy modeling.2:14–5:04 · Shayle pushing back 1/10 Welcome to Part Two with Nat Bullard Shayle frames the segment around public clean energy stock performance violating common narratives. Nat elaborates with index data comparing clean energy against the S&P and NASDAQ in a collaborative peer dynamic.5:04–8:46 · Shayle pushing back 3/10 The Energy Startup Slump and Investment Rebound Predictions Shayle leans heavily into his venture capital background, challenging Nat's modest prediction for startup investment rebounds with a bullish 'hard over' bet driven by AI and data center power demand.8:47–10:52 · Shayle pushing back 1/10 Analyzing Global Oil Oversupply and Market Dynamics Nat details IEA data showing 5 million barrels per day of excess supply damping prices. Shayle integrates this with geopolitics by questioning the Trump administration's heavy crude strategy in Venezuela.10:56–15:07 · Shayle pushing back 2/10 Sponsor Messages: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub Following ad reads, both former solar analysts discuss the disconnect between plunging module prices and rising installed system costs due to tariffs, soft costs, and labor.15:07–18:35 · Shayle pushing back 4/10 Australia's Explosive Residential Battery Storage Adoption After marveling at Australia's 40,000 monthly residential battery installations, Shayle pushes back against Nat's analogy comparing transformer manufacturing constraints to gas turbines.18:36–21:11 · Shayle pushing back 1/10 China's Growing Dominance in Global Automotive Manufacturing Nat educates Shayle on the sheer scale of China's automotive dominance, sharing firsthand observations from Southeast Asia and posing key questions on the displacement of used Western vehicles in emerging markets.21:11–23:46 · Shayle pushing back 1/10 China's Rapid Deployment of Electric Commercial Trucks Shayle and Nat contrast China's surging deployment of electric medium and heavy-duty trucks with the stalled adoption narrative in the US and Europe.23:48–25:58 · Shayle pushing back 0/10 AI Load Forecasting Uncertainty and Concluding Thoughts The episode wraps up warmly with Nat reading quotes illustrating extreme forecasting uncertainty around AI data center loads, agreeing on the humility needed in energy modeling.

speaking balance: gold is Shayle, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · Shayle 30% · guest 70%0:00 · Shayle 30% · guest 70%3:00 · Shayle 23.5% · guest 76.5%3:00 · Shayle 23.5% · guest 76.5%6:00 · Shayle 45.8% · guest 54.2%6:00 · Shayle 45.8% · guest 54.2%9:00 · Shayle 6.4% · guest 93.6%9:00 · Shayle 6.4% · guest 93.6%12:00 · Shayle 21.7% · guest 78.3%12:00 · Shayle 21.7% · guest 78.3%15:00 · Shayle 36.3% · guest 63.7%15:00 · Shayle 36.3% · guest 63.7%18:00 · Shayle 17.9% · guest 82.1%18:00 · Shayle 17.9% · guest 82.1%21:00 · Shayle 30.2% · guest 69.8%21:00 · Shayle 30.2% · guest 69.8%24:00 · Shayle 29.7% · guest 70.3%24:00 · Shayle 29.7% · guest 70.3%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 7:50 Challenging the boundaries of what constitutes an energy company

Nat playfully probes Shayle's broad definition of energy startups, questioning whether supersonic aviation and software startups should be classified under energy venture investment.

 Hardest push from Shayle ▶ 18:07 Shayle distinguishes transformer supply issues from gas turbines

Shayle directly challenges Nat's comparison, asserting that gas turbine manufacturing is far more capital intensive and oligopolistic than transformers, predicting transformers will be resolved faster.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 19:49 Nat outlines China's auto dominance and global used car implications

Nat provides deep on-the-ground context regarding Chinese auto market share in Southeast Asia and introduces the systemic threat cheap new Chinese cars pose to the global used car market.

 Shayle holds their own ▶ 6:57 Shayle articulates the venture thesis on AI and energy intersection

Shayle leverages his front-line VC expertise to explain why energy startup funding will rapidly rebound past expectations due to AI data centers, power constraints, and energy sovereignty.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicShayle as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementShayle pushing backWhy
Welcome to Part Two with Nat Bullard 5311 Shayle frames the segment around public clean energy stock performance violating common narratives. Nat elaborates with index data comparing clean energy against the S&P and NASDAQ in a collaborative peer dynamic.
The Energy Startup Slump and Investment Rebound Predictions 7223 Shayle leans heavily into his venture capital background, challenging Nat's modest prediction for startup investment rebounds with a bullish 'hard over' bet driven by AI and data center power demand.
Analyzing Global Oil Oversupply and Market Dynamics 5411 Nat details IEA data showing 5 million barrels per day of excess supply damping prices. Shayle integrates this with geopolitics by questioning the Trump administration's heavy crude strategy in Venezuela.
Sponsor Messages: Bloom Energy, Engie, and Energy Hub 6412 Following ad reads, both former solar analysts discuss the disconnect between plunging module prices and rising installed system costs due to tariffs, soft costs, and labor.
Australia's Explosive Residential Battery Storage Adoption 6424 After marveling at Australia's 40,000 monthly residential battery installations, Shayle pushes back against Nat's analogy comparing transformer manufacturing constraints to gas turbines.
China's Growing Dominance in Global Automotive Manufacturing 5611 Nat educates Shayle on the sheer scale of China's automotive dominance, sharing firsthand observations from Southeast Asia and posing key questions on the displacement of used Western vehicles in emerging markets.
China's Rapid Deployment of Electric Commercial Trucks 6511 Shayle and Nat contrast China's surging deployment of electric medium and heavy-duty trucks with the stalled adoption narrative in the US and Europe.
AI Load Forecasting Uncertainty and Concluding Thoughts 4300 The episode wraps up warmly with Nat reading quotes illustrating extreme forecasting uncertainty around AI data center loads, agreeing on the humility needed in energy modeling.

Statements from this episode (13)

Assertion Supported
Bullard: Clean Energy Transition Index gained 40% in 2025, beating Nasdaq
“Fenced off to the calendar year, 20, 25, and then calendar year, 20, 25 the S&P Global, the Clean Energy Transition Index, was up 40%, rebased value of a hundred at the start of the year, tips out at a 140 at the end. So more than the S&P and the NASDAQ 100, w…”
Nat Bullard Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 3:32
Assertion Supported
Bullard: US energy startup investment dropped from over $8B in 2022 to $2B in 2025
“Investment in U.S. Energy startups, which, this is Carta data, went just over eight billion dollars in twenty-twenty-two, and barely tipped past two billion in twenty-twenty-five, last year.”
Nat Bullard Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 5:56
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Kann predicts US energy startup funding will boom and triple in 2026
“So I think we're going to see, this is going to be a return to a boom, this is my prediction right now, where, yeah, we were at two billion last year, down from eight billion in twenty-twenty-two. I don't know that we get back to eight, but like, Will it tripl…”
Shayle Kann Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 7:34
Assertion Partly supported
Nat Bullard: IEA projects 5M barrels per day global oil oversupply
“The IEA estimate for the beginning of the year is about five million barrels per day of supply in excess of demand. That is a lot. That's, Also about five percent oversupply based on based on the current demand of around a hundred and a little bit million barr…”
Nat Bullard Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 9:02
Assertion Supported
US residential solar costs are three times higher than Australia or Germany
“Yeah, you were, congratulations at costing thrice what it costs in Australia or Germany, neither of which are particularly low-cost markets for anything.”
Nat Bullard Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 13:59
Assertion Supported
Bullard: Commercial and utility solar installation prices rose up to 10%
“But commercial prices up nine percent, utility fixed and tracking prices up nine to 10%.”
Nat Bullard Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 14:09
Assertion Contradicted
Kann: Australia installed 40,000 residential battery systems monthly in late 2025
“Over the course of the past, what is it, five months, or July through November, 25, Australia was installing 40,000 residential storage systems per month.”
Shayle Kann Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 15:30
Assertion Supported
Nat Bullard: Transformer prices keep rising despite domestic manufacturing push
“If anything, they're still ticking slightly upward. And as much as there's energy and attention and noise being paid to, we need to build stuff here, we're not.”
Nat Bullard Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 17:19
Assertion Supported
Kann: Gas turbine manufacturing is more oligopolistic than electrical transformers
“Gas turbine manufacturing is even more capital intensive. It's currently more of an oligopoly than transformers are.”
Shayle Kann Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 18:09
Assertion Supported
Bullard: China manufactures 42% of passenger cars, topping Japan's historical peak
“For the first three quarters of last year about 42% of all passenger vehicle manufacturing is in China last year. That's higher than the ratio for Japan ever was back in its heyday.”
Nat Bullard Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 18:50
Assertion Supported
Bullard: BYD grew from 0.1% to Singapore's top auto seller in four years
“Watching in my hometown, in Singapore, where, ah, BYD had .one percent market share in December, 21, and is now by far the biggest auto seller in the country in four years.”
Nat Bullard Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 19:35
Assertion Supported
Bullard: China electric commercial truck sales grew from 3,000 to 81,500 in H1 2025
“China had three A thousand electric, medium, and heavy-duty truck sales in the year, twenty-twenty. It had 81 and a half thousand in the first half of last year.”
Nat Bullard Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 21:48
Assertion Supported
Bullard: Electric passenger cars account for well over 50% of China sales
“Electric, electric car sales as a share in China is well north of 50% at this point.”
Nat Bullard Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 23:28
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