Prediction Open AI assessment confidence: 85% certainty 3/5 debate potential 2/5

Black: New Mexico's sovereign wealth fund will probably surpass Alaska within three years

Rob Black · New Mexico proves America can still build [partner content] · Nov 18, 2025 · at 13:30

Rob Black, New Mexico Cabinet Secretary, discusses the rapid growth of the New Mexico State Investment Council's $65 billion sovereign wealth fund compared to Alaska's fund.

0:00 / 0:07exact quote · 7.7s

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“It's, it is the second largest in, in the U.S., only behind Alaska, and we think we'll probably surpass Alaska in the next three years or so.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

The claim, plainly

New Mexico's sovereign wealth fund will surpass Alaska's sovereign wealth fund in total size within roughly three years.

a quote alone can be ambiguous, so this restates it with the references and context of the conversation around it resolved. AI-written; the tape below the player is the source.

Assessment

The claim made on 2025-11-18 predicted that New Mexico's sovereign wealth fund would surpass Alaska's within roughly three years (by late 2028). As of today (2026-09-02), the target window remains open. While New Mexico's State Investment Council (NMSIC) has significantly narrowed the asset gap—growing to between $75 billion and $77.57 billion by mid-2026 compared to Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation's (APFC) $91.35 billion as of June 30, 2026—New Mexico has not yet surpassed Alaska. Because the stated horizon of roughly three years extends to November 2028 and the event has neither occurred nor become impossible, the claim cannot yet be resolved.

As of June 30, 2026, the Alaska Permanent Fund reported an unaudited total fund value of $91.35 billion.
As of mid-2026, New Mexico State Investment Council total sovereign wealth fund assets stood at approximately $75 billion to $77.57 billion.
The 3-year stated horizon from the November 18, 2025 statement extends to November 18, 2028, meaning more than two years remain in the prediction window as of September 2026.

Checked against

[1] globalswf.com [2] wikipedia.org [3] apfc.org [4] apfc.org [5] privateequityinternational.com [6] businesswire.com [7] wikipedia.org [8] dealroom.co

Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation total AUM fund size 2024 2025 2026 New Mexico State Investment Council AUM permanent funds 2024 2025 2026 New Mexico permanent funds total assets vs Alaska permanent fund New Mexico State Investment Council assets under management June 2025 2026

assessed as of 2026-09-02

This assessment is an AI reading of a public statement, made against the cited references with the confidence shown. It can be wrong. The quote, the tape and the references are all on this page; if something is off, use report an error below. full disclaimer →

⏳ prediction date: 2028-11-18; checked again automatically on the next resolution wave

Mentioned

Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation New Mexico State Investment Council

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