Chris Colbert, CEO of Elemental Power, outlines the projected multi-stage timeline for permitting, constructing, and commissioning new nuclear power plants.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
At least three or four advanced nuclear reactor developers will succeed
“I'm very comfortable that, there's going to be, you know, probably three or four at least that are going to make it through that part of it that will be successful in the long term.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2039
Light water reactors deploy in early 2030s; non-light water in late 2030s
“The early thirties is the light water reactors, and the late thirties is when we'll see commercially more of the non-light water reactors coming to fore.”
Opinion
Light water reactors carry zero technology risk, only field construction challenges
“So, for light water reactor technology there really isn't a technology risk, it's just, Pulling together the right pieces to, you know, de-risk it in the front end to get to a final investment decision and then start construction and have a solid plan to be su…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Nuclear plant development timelines will fall from eight to five years
“I do see a path by which you get down to, from the seven to eight years, we're looking at the first ones, to getting down to five or six years, which to me really makes a game changer when people have their planning horizons.”
Insight
Permitting new transmission lines is globally harder than building nuclear plants
“It's going to be easier to permit and get a nuclear plant built than it is to get new transmission lines, and that's just historically how it's been, you know, everywhere I've been, whether it's in the US, the UK, Australia. Over in Taiwan Philippines, people …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mature SMR capital costs will reach $10,000 per kilowatt
“Once you get down the curve, we're probably, you know, 10,000 dollars a kilowatt, so if you have a 600 megawatt plant, that'd be about six billion dollars. The first one might be, you know, 15, 20% more than that.”