Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fulgham: Structural fossil generation declines in India will happen closer to 2030
“But we do expect that it will still take a few more years for that trend to really be structural. So it'll be closer to 2030, where we'll be seeing normal years of demand growth and falls in fossil generation at the same time in India.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fulgham: China faces significant coal generator overcapacity for years
“China is very much moving into an, into a time where they will, for most of the year, there will be significant overcapacity of coal coal generators as well. So yeah, a big change in the role that China is using coal. And that will be a feature for years to co…”
Opinion
Fulgham: China's renewable curtailment is likely higher than reported
“In the meantime, that means that curtailment likely is significantly higher than what is being reported, or at least that's what we expect from when we look at how much capacity has been installed and how much generation is actually growing.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2031
Fulgham: India's coal generation will peak 3 to 4 times lower than China's
“And that means we think that India is going to top out or peak its coal generation, both in absolute terms and per capita at a level that's three to maybe even four times lower than where China's peak was.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fulgham: India may meet all new power demand with clean energy by 2030–2035
“Where we could even see as soon as 2030, that structural point where all of the new demand is already met by clean power sources. And that means that not just fossil generation, but also coal generation would not need to grow beyond that. Now it might not be e…”
Assertion Supported
Fulgham: Solar scaled from 100 TWh to 2,000 TWh faster than any energy source
“How long does it take for sources to go from a hundred terawatt hours to a size like 2000 terawatt hours? And if you look historically, no source has ever made that jump as quickly as solar has. Right behind it is wind with just a few more years.”
Assertion Supported
Fulgham: Global fossil generation fell in 2025 for fifth time this century
“And that meant that for only the fifth time in this century, and for the first time since twenty-twenty, we actually saw a small fall in fossil generation, particularly a fall from coal generation, which was both in India and China we had those falls.”
Assertion Supported
Fulgham: China mandates coal plants throttle down midday for solar
“China is actively reducing the lowest level that coal plants can run out. Now, this is not just a policy choice. It's also a technical requirement. So it means they want Coal plants to be able to throttle down in the middle of the day further than they had to …”
Assertion Supported
Fulgham: India's per-capita renewables generation is 5x China's 15-year-old baseline
“Wind and solar generation per capita India's has now is already five times higher than China's was 15 years ago, and obviously that's only going to continue to grow.”
Assertion Supported
Fulgham: 2025 battery additions can shift 14% of new solar output
“We also have 250 gigawatt hours of additional battery capacity. And you put those two together, and it means that 14% of all the solar generation, the additional solar generation we had globally, can be shifted to different parts of the day.”
Assertion Supported
Fulgham: Global solar generation increased by 636 TWh (30%) in 2025
“Solar has really had a standout year in 2025 increased by 636 terabyte hours. So that's twice the size of the UK's annual electricity demand. Huge amount of additional electricity globally that's coming from solar. And the really interesting trend that we foun…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Fulgham: Solar relative growth may slow in 2026 despite record absolute gains
“My gut feeling now is that maybe 2026 is the year where that relative growth rate will step down a little bit, and we'll see slower relative growth, even though we might still again get a record absolute increase.”
Assertion Partly supported
Fulgham: Global battery storage installations grew 46% to 250 GWh in 2025
“The installations in 2025 were around 250 gigawatt hours of energy capacity from batteries, and that's a 46% increase over the deployment in the previous year.”
Assertion Supported
Fulgham: Japan and Korea committed to faster renewables buildout to exit gas
“Japan and Korea in a slight panic have already committed to a much faster build out of renewables to get away from gas as quickly as possible. Almost all of their gas is imported LNG.”
Assertion Supported
Fulgham: Solar generation averaged 27% annual growth over past decade
“We've now had over the last 10 years, the average was 27%.”
Assertion Supported
Fulgham: Wind added over 200 TWh globally in 2025
“It was the second fastest growing source and just over 200 terawatt hours, so made up a huge amount of the increase in demand.”
Assertion Supported
Fulgham: China drove almost the entire global nuclear generation increase in 2025
“China's by far the country that is leading nuclear generation build out currently, and it's not close to anyone else. So almost the entire increase in 20, 25 as well was in China directly.”
Assertion Supported
Fulgham: Global gas generation grew 30–40 TWh in 2025 vs 636 TWh for solar
“So in 20, 25 as well, it was a really moderate increase between 30 and 40 terawatt hours. Again, solar was 636. So we're talking about, you know, 18 times more than the increase in gas.”
