Prediction Open AI assessment confidence: 85% certainty 3/5 debate potential 2/5

Vijendran: Commercial space solar will take at least a decade with moonshot funding

Sanjay Vijendran · Beaming 24/7 solar… from space · Aug 10, 2023 · at 44:50

Sanjay Vijendran leads the European Space Agency's Solaris Initiative, evaluating timelines for commercializing space-based solar power.

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“We're talking about a decade. Probably at the minimum, if there's a real push to make this happen, a moonshot like approach, putting a substantial amount of funding over that amount of time to do the R and D as well as the demos that you have to do along the way, because we're not going to be developing the technology and then deploying a full scale gigawatt system in one go.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

More from Sanjay Vijendran

Prediction Held up
Vijendran: Central space solar beam will likely reach 200 watts per square meter
“Part of the beam, especially the central part of the beam, will likely be exceeding safety limits up to perhaps a couple of hundred watts per square meter.”
Sanjay Vijendran Aug 10, 2023 ▶ 28:50 Beaming 24/7 solar… from space
Assertion Supported
Vijendran: Full space solar system costs fell from $100B to $1B–$10B
“What was a hundred billion before, now you're looking at one to ten billion for a full system, depending on, on the scale you're looking at.”
Sanjay Vijendran Aug 10, 2023 ▶ 34:17 Beaming 24/7 solar… from space
Opinion
Vijendran: Space solar beats fusion with instant zero-loss global power transmission
“Space-based solar power has all of the benefits of fusion, and some, because it can move power from one place to another place that is underneath the satellite essentially instantly over vast geographic regions without any loss, and even, you know, nuclear fus…”
Sanjay Vijendran Aug 10, 2023 ▶ 44:22 Beaming 24/7 solar… from space
Assertion Supported
Vijendran: Space solar becomes economically viable below $1,000 per kilo launch costs
“The cost benefit studies for space-based solar power have shown in the past that once you get to cost below A thousand dollars or a thousand euros per kilo to low Earth orbit, then you're getting into the ballpark where this could be economically viable.”
Sanjay Vijendran Aug 10, 2023 ▶ 32:25 Beaming 24/7 solar… from space
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Vijendran: Starship could reduce low Earth orbit launch costs to hundreds per kilo
“Potentially, if something like Starship or the equivalent really works out as planned, we could get to the mid-hundreds or low-hundreds or even less per kilo to low Earth orbit.”
Sanjay Vijendran Aug 10, 2023 ▶ 32:49 Beaming 24/7 solar… from space
Assertion Supported
Vijendran: Mass production has reduced satellite hardware costs to ~$1,000/kg
“Mass production. Techniques to build space hardware, and that's brought the cost of space hardware down to of the order of thousand dollars or so per kilogram as well from where it used to be in order to magnitudes higher.”
Sanjay Vijendran Aug 10, 2023 ▶ 33:25 Beaming 24/7 solar… from space
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