Tim Hade discusses market growth prospects for commercial and industrial (C&I) battery storage compared to residential and utility-scale sectors.
Insight
Hade: Storage aids grid operators but underdelivers financially for investors
“Grid operators are benefiting from storage assets. That's just definitively true in all markets where storage has been deployed at scale, right? This stuff is working and it's helping to solve a lot of the problems that we have on the grid. And at the same tim…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029
Hade: AI tooling will slash C&I battery transaction costs 90% in three years
“So my best guess is, you know, over the next three years, the transaction cost bucket will go from an average of about 200 dollars a kilowatt hour to maybe 20 dollars a kilowatt hour. I think there's going to be a 90% reduction in the cost in sort of transacti…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hade: A catastrophic power grid failure will occur in the United States
“A catastrophic grid failure is going to happen, and when that catastrophic grid failure happens, the question's going to be, why didn't we think about resilience more?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hade: California is building basically no solar-only projects right now
“There are basically no solar-only projects being built in California right now.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hade: Clean long-duration storage is not remotely economically viable today
“So we're looking into things like, you know, iron air batteries, and nickel hydrogen batteries, and you know, hydrogen as a consumable fuel, right? But nothing even, like, comes remotely close to being economically viable right now for us, right? And so maybe …”
Assertion Supported
Hade: Utility scale is 90% of US battery growth and C&I is virtually zero
“Of that, you know, roughly 40 gigawatts of storage that's been added to the grid over the last five years something like 90% of it is utility scale, and 10% is residential, and if you add 90 and 10, that gets to a hundred, which means that basically nothing is…”