Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Dumoulin-Smith: Solar leasing volume will rise in 2026 despite market contraction
“20, 26 is going to be, again, I would call it extraordinarily dynamic in a market which you could argue the market itself is going to decline in absolute terms. And yet for the incumbent leasing companies, arguably their volumes on a discrete basis are going t…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2028
Dumoulin-Smith: Loan-dependent residential solar installers will be phased out
“The individual installers who had been principally selling loans and had sidestepped this whole conversation to a large extent. That's really going to continue to be phased out, and in many ways, what I would argue to you is, like, when you look at, you know, …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dumoulin-Smith: Residential solar is no longer a growth sector
“It doesn't appear to be a growth sector anymore. It's a sector and, you know, overall volumetric decline potentially for several years in a row.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2028
Dumoulin-Smith: U.S. residential solar dealer markups will fall without tax credits
“As we see the tax sort of come out, you're going to see that spread, that difference in how you know, you price residential solar in the U.S. Start to come up, right? The dealer markups and the like start to come down.”
Insight
Dumoulin-Smith: Interest rate hikes are the principal driver of rising solar prices
“Yes, this is an incredibly interest rate sensitive product. Interests go up. That is the principal driver of raising prices.”
Insight
Dumoulin-Smith: Residential solar competition prevented passing rate hikes to consumers
“Look, in theory, if it was less of a competitive space, you would say interest rates go up, the cost of solar goes up to homeowners, and ergo, it just effectively passed along, right? We talk a lot about inflation in the current environment, and we talk a lot …”
Opinion
Dumoulin-Smith: Debt rollover issues drove major residential solar bankruptcies
“Making sure that you're very diligent to keep the maturity profile and give yourself a lot of latitude is, is truly important. I think that's really what ended up being a critical factor for at least a couple of the major bankruptcies in the last few years. Ju…”
Assertion Supported
Dumoulin-Smith: California net metering changes triggered industry-wide solar volume declines
“The NEMP .O changes in California, and how much that pulled back participation in California, and that was a big volumetric impact that really cascaded, not just across the actual lessors and installers, but also across the equipment manufacturers, right? That…”
Assertion Supported
Dumoulin-Smith: Utility-scale solar faces supply deficit from data center demand
“Look, utility scale solar, look, the reality is that market is principally driven by CNI demand, commercial and industrial demand. What is that? Effectively, it amounts to tech companies, data center demand, right? Like, am I really worried substantively that …”
Assertion Supported
Dumoulin-Smith: Phasing out 40% solar tax credit adds 3¢ per kWh
“If you're talking roughly 40% tax credit to begin with, and you roll that off, You know, you're effectively talking about ballpark a three cent a kilowatt hour increase in pricing, right?”
Opinion
Dumoulin-Smith: Standalone residential storage market remains modest
“Look, I don't necessarily think there's a sizable storage standalone business, at least relative to the size and scope of what we're looking at today in, you know, solar and storage and solar only, right? Like, that's Like, obviously, it's there. It's just as …”
Assertion Contradicted
Dumoulin-Smith: Solar leasing outnumbers direct consumer loans two-to-one
“Broad strokes, you've got a two to one ratio already of leasing companies versus folks doing you know, loans already and doing their own financing, right?”
