Jefferies analyst Julian Dumoulin-Smith assesses the macro trajectory of the U.S. residential solar market amid policy changes.
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Dumoulin-Smith: Solar leasing volume will rise in 2026 despite market contraction
“20, 26 is going to be, again, I would call it extraordinarily dynamic in a market which you could argue the market itself is going to decline in absolute terms. And yet for the incumbent leasing companies, arguably their volumes on a discrete basis are going t…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2028
Dumoulin-Smith: Loan-dependent residential solar installers will be phased out
“The individual installers who had been principally selling loans and had sidestepped this whole conversation to a large extent. That's really going to continue to be phased out, and in many ways, what I would argue to you is, like, when you look at, you know, …”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2028
Dumoulin-Smith: U.S. residential solar dealer markups will fall without tax credits
“As we see the tax sort of come out, you're going to see that spread, that difference in how you know, you price residential solar in the U.S. Start to come up, right? The dealer markups and the like start to come down.”
Insight
Dumoulin-Smith: Interest rate hikes are the principal driver of rising solar prices
“Yes, this is an incredibly interest rate sensitive product. Interests go up. That is the principal driver of raising prices.”
Insight
Dumoulin-Smith: Residential solar competition prevented passing rate hikes to consumers
“Look, in theory, if it was less of a competitive space, you would say interest rates go up, the cost of solar goes up to homeowners, and ergo, it just effectively passed along, right? We talk a lot about inflation in the current environment, and we talk a lot …”
Opinion
Dumoulin-Smith: Debt rollover issues drove major residential solar bankruptcies
“Making sure that you're very diligent to keep the maturity profile and give yourself a lot of latitude is, is truly important. I think that's really what ended up being a critical factor for at least a couple of the major bankruptcies in the last few years. Ju…”