Prediction Not checkable as stated
Linville: European fertilizer production may never return to 100% capacity
“And unfortunately at this point in time, we're sitting in 20, 26. I don't know that we will ever see a hundred percent in Europe again.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2027
Linville: Global Fertilizer Prices to Stay Above Average Through Spring 2027
“And ultimately speaking, we could see some dips here and there, but I think the entire structure of this marketplace stays higher priced than average, probably through at least spring of 27.”
Assertion Supported
Linville: North America is self-sufficient across major fertilizers except urea
“We are self-sufficient on potash. From a Canadian standpoint, they are the biggest producer and exporter in the world. We are mostly self-sufficient on phosphate as the spring season has shown. UAN and anhydrous, both nitrogen products, we produce almost all t…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Linville: Buyers will renege on urea contracts if Strait reopens in off-season
“And I think a lot of the countries around the world will do exactly that. Just sit there and throw their hands in the air and say, I'm reneging on my purchase because I don't need it right now.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Linville: Prolonged Hormuz closure through autumn will trigger global fertilizer rationing
“If we get to the fourth of July and the straight is still closed, if we start up with my youngest is a freshman high school, be a sophomore in the fall. If he goes back to school in the fall and the straight is still closed, we have lost so much supply out the…”
Opinion
Linville: Government market interventions and export duties worsen fertilizer shortages
“The more governments start to play a role in these free markets, the worse it gets. We've seen it with India with the way that they shield their farmers from global prices. We see it with Egypt putting a 90 dollar ton export duty on their nitrogen products.”
Assertion Supported
Linville: Nitrogen and phosphate markets were already tight before Hormuz disruption
“The problem is, if you go back to January one, nitrogen markets and phosphate markets were already dealing with supply tightness because of European production rates, because of a lack of Chinese exports, because the ongoing Russian-Ukraine war.”
Insight
Linville: Strategic fertilizer reserves are impractical because fertilizer degrades rapidly
“Fertilizer just does not store that well. It breaks down very quickly. And there's always a question like, well, where does it go to? If you ever need to call on it, who gets it at what price and how does it get there? And so it's just not something that reall…”
Opinion
Linville: Fertilizer export income is a rounding error for China's GDP
“The income flow would be great, but it's a rounding error in the China GDP. It's more important to keep a quarter of your people happy, so they've continued to keep them.”
Assertion Supported
Linville: European nitrogen fertilizer production is running at 75% capacity
“That means their production, their nitrogen production in Europe is only sitting about 75% of normal, and that's for all of Europe, and when you start to break that down, That's about three and a half million tons of urea that's not being produced a year. That…”
Assertion Supported
Linville: One-Third of World's Tradable Urea Passes Through Strait of Hormuz
“About a third of the world's tradable urea gets exported through that waterway, and so we always look at the top 10 exporters in the world. That's who you really want to watch. Three of the world's biggest urea and anhydrous exporters sit behind the strait. Th…”
Assertion Supported
Linville: Persian Gulf Disruption Cut Indian Urea Production Up to 50%
“India is very reliant on those LNG exports from the Persian Gulf. That's how they feed their nitrogen plants. And just to give you a scope of size, they produce over thirty million tons of urea every single year. And at one point at their worst spot, their pro…”
Assertion Partly supported
Linville: Over 900,000 tons of urea are trapped behind Strait of Hormuz
“Our estimates are somewhere between 900 to a million tons are sitting on vessels right now, literally just sitting in the Persian Gulf waiting, waiting for somebody to give them the go ahead.”
Assertion Supported
Linville: Most new North American anhydrous ammonia capacity utilizes clean energy
“Anhydrous is one that we produce almost all that we already need. So we're not that reliant on imports, and that's where a lot of the new nitrogen production is coming from. It's new anhydrous facilities, and a lot of it's backed by this green energy.”
Assertion Supported
Linville: A world-scale nitrogen production facility costs $3B to $5B
“You've got to come up with three, four, five billion US dollars for a world-scale nitrogen production facility. They are not cheap.”
Assertion Supported
Linville: India partnered with Russia on a dedicated urea production plant
“India has partnered with Russia To do a partnership facility based in Russia with the tons all flowing to India.”
Insight
Linville: US fertilizer prices match global spikes due to export arbitrage
“Well, if our price doesn't do anything, well, that export opportunity pops up, an arbitrage opportunity pops up, and we start losing supply that we can't lose. And so that's why you see our market go with the rest of the world”
Opinion
Linville: Global Fertilizer Crunch Is Unprecedented and Directly Threatens Food Supply
“Everybody focuses on oil and gas and things like that coming from the Persian Gulf. You can't eat or drink those products. End of the day, and this is why I think fertilizer becomes such an important topic. It grows the food that we need to eat. It impacts the…”
Assertion Supported
Linville: India recently bought 2.5 million tons of fertilizer above $900/ton
“They paid one of the highest prices we've seen in a very, very long time here recently to buy two and a half million tons. Over 900 dollars a ton. I think the West Coast prices were 935 dollars a ton. East Coast prices were nine 50 plus.”
