Josh Linville of StoneX explains the capital requirements and financial hurdles of building domestic nitrogen fertilizer synthesis plants.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Linville: European fertilizer production may never return to 100% capacity
“And unfortunately at this point in time, we're sitting in 20, 26. I don't know that we will ever see a hundred percent in Europe again.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2027
Linville: Global Fertilizer Prices to Stay Above Average Through Spring 2027
“And ultimately speaking, we could see some dips here and there, but I think the entire structure of this marketplace stays higher priced than average, probably through at least spring of 27.”
Assertion Supported
Linville: North America is self-sufficient across major fertilizers except urea
“We are self-sufficient on potash. From a Canadian standpoint, they are the biggest producer and exporter in the world. We are mostly self-sufficient on phosphate as the spring season has shown. UAN and anhydrous, both nitrogen products, we produce almost all t…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Linville: Buyers will renege on urea contracts if Strait reopens in off-season
“And I think a lot of the countries around the world will do exactly that. Just sit there and throw their hands in the air and say, I'm reneging on my purchase because I don't need it right now.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Linville: Prolonged Hormuz closure through autumn will trigger global fertilizer rationing
“If we get to the fourth of July and the straight is still closed, if we start up with my youngest is a freshman high school, be a sophomore in the fall. If he goes back to school in the fall and the straight is still closed, we have lost so much supply out the…”
Opinion
Linville: Government market interventions and export duties worsen fertilizer shortages
“The more governments start to play a role in these free markets, the worse it gets. We've seen it with India with the way that they shield their farmers from global prices. We see it with Egypt putting a 90 dollar ton export duty on their nitrogen products.”