Insight
Garabedian: Deploying hundreds of small containerized electrolyzers is highly cost-inefficient
“The idea of integrating onto a site hundreds and hundreds of very small containerized electrolyzers, it turns out to be quite expensive. And in no small part, it's expensive because it's very hard to drive the cost out of those units, but also because the foot…”
Opinion
Garabedian: China's low-cost solar manufacturing playbook will fail in hydrogen
“So long story short I don't think the same game that worked in solar works in green hydrogen.”
Assertion Supported
Garabedian: Western green hydrogen plant capital costs doubled to over $3/W
“We've seen those capital costs go from You know, an early promise of something like 1500 dollars a kilowatt, buck 50 a watt, to now even over three dollars a watt of capital cost.”
Disclosure
Garabedian: Electric Hydrogen prices European plants just over $1,000/kW installed
“So, we're pricing in the European market today with a total installed cost just north of a thousand dollars a kilowatt. Inclusive of EPC. That's everything from the substation, the civil works, all of our equipment, the installation and commissioning.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2032
Garabedian: Electric Hydrogen will beat fossil hydrogen costs by early 2030s
“Now, if you take our technology roadmap a little further out, and you think about scale and also improvements we have in our, coming in our technology, along with what we expect to see in terms of continued cost reduction in wind and solar, we think we can get…”
Assertion Supported
Garabedian: ERCOT green power prices doubled to $65/MWh amid AI demand
“If you look in West Texas and you were to sign a solar and wind kind of affirmed green power purchase agreement in, in Texas and Urquhart territory three years ago, you might've paid 35 dollars a megawatt hour for that product. Today you're paying 65, maybe mo…”
Assertion Supported
Garabedian: EPC accounts for roughly half of hydrogen plant installed costs
“And in a typical project like we're discussing, roughly half of the total installed cost goes to the EPC.”
Opinion
Garabedian: Green hydrogen is slowly emerging from the trough of disillusionment
“Green hydrogen went through this just incredible Ballooning of the bubble, and I would say since then the bubble has burst, and you know, I can't say whether right now we're at the nadir of green hydrogen hype, or whether we're starting to come out of it. It f…”
Assertion Supported
Garabedian: Unsubsidized Green Hydrogen Costs Roughly $6/kg in Southern Europe
“If you look at the cost of making a kilogram of green hydrogen today, let's say in southern Europe, it might be unsubsidized. It might be maybe six dollars U.S. A kilo. I think rough numbers, that might be about right. That can be broken down Roughly fifty-fif…”
Assertion Supported
Chinese electrolyzer systems in Europe cost just over $1,500/kW installed
“We see integrators building or promising to build using Chinese equipment systems in the European market at a total installed cost, you know, right around maybe a little north of 1500 dollars a kilowatt.”
Opinion
Garabedian: Subsidized green molecule market is unsustainable long term
“That is not a sustainable market in my view in the long term. It's a necessary first step for the P to X or green molecule industry to get going.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Garabedian: Electric Hydrogen can produce Brazilian ammonia at $700-$750/ton today
“Brazil's grid is around 90% green already. And power prices at least away from the coastal economic centers are quite low. 30 to 35 dollars a megawatt hour. That in and of itself allows us to make on the order of seven to 750 dollar a ton of ammonia today with…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Garabedian: Next five years of green hydrogen will be policy-driven European projects
“So I think the next five years looks like very, very tactical kind of one-off projects that are policy-driven in places like Europe. That have the policy frameworks in place or emerging to motivate consumption of these molecules.”
Assertion Supported
Garabedian: Brazil imports over 90% of its nitrogen, primarily from Russia
“Brazil, it turns out, imports over 90% of its nitrogen. Its biggest import partner for fertilizer is actually Russia.”
