The Calls

“If, even if we continue to increase farm yields at the same rate they've increased throughout the Green Revolution we're gonna need another two India's worth of land, which essentially means, you know, gonna bye-bye Amazon and Congo rainforests, you know, very…”

“Depending on what forecast you look at in a sort of business as usual technology scenario, that means we're on track to add, roughly speaking, another whole U.S. Electricity sector worth of electricity demand globally for this new air conditioning demand by ar…”

“In 2050, the amount of electricity that would be required to decarbonize aviation is the entire renewable energy production today. So all of the energy, renewable energy that is produced today could be used up in aviation alone.”

“With our IRA analysis, we see... Power sector CO two emissions dropping potentially quite a large amount, like from like the one and a half billion tons or so from last year. Down to maybe half a billion tons, even lower in some instances, depending on the eco…”

“If you have distributed hydrogen production, you could very well have distributed ammonia production. And so these kinds of things are opportunities that we're going to see emerge over the next decade, and I'm excited to see that technology come to the field.”

“That I think is how geothermal or geothermal anywhere will roll out in the next decade, is you've got teams that are in sedimentary basins right now, like In South Texas, right? They're trying geothermal anywhere projects in places where they can get to heat i…”

“Frankly, most of the industry is going that way.”

“The same expertise in in islandable large-scale power systems that are grid-connected but can take themselves offline, can provide peak capacity to the grid, can ensure that they're never drawing beyond a certain amount of capacity from the grid. Like, that sa…”

“Because I think the thing that's true is that you're not going to see an exit prior to that milestone.”

“Massive data centers on the grid, massive data centers off-grid, small data centers on the edge, huge data center clusters in space. Each of these might get built. Actually, each of them probably will get built”

“I'm on the oversight here. I'm betting that there will be more than 20 gigawatts of new data center capacity in the United States by then.”

“So, you know, when I was talking about, you know, the high range of liquid hydrogen by 2030, which is above seven dollars per kilogram you know, the high range for liquid organic hydrogen carriers would be around four dollars per kilogram. So this is much lowe…”

“We're talking about another potentially close to doubling of installation per year by the end of this decade, something like the 600 to 650 gigawatts, something like that range.”

“And that's even before you start thinking about, are we going to build solar to make hydrogen? And I suspect that by 2030 we are, just because we've got no idea how else to manage the problems of intermittency and how to decarbonize steel and fertilizer.”

“The inference data centers for AI, unlike the CPU data centers of today that are one to 10 megawatts, typically on the edge, are going to be Somewhere between five to 30 megawatts on the edge.”

“The second pain point that they are working on as we speak is shifting the mindset to an 800 volt DC bus going into Iraq. Let me explain this to you. When you are a large power plant that produces 50 megawatts, 500 megawatts worth of power, because so much pow…”

“We're just starting to see this wave of announcements that are inexorably coming where there are going to be partnerships between hyperscalers or data center operators and the Third parties who do aggregations of DERs to deliver capacity to get data centers on…”

“Every second you aren't running that at a hundred percent capacity factor is enormous amortized cost, right? So that it's just, it's one of those things where it's like, you'd be a fool to turn it down. You have to at some points because operationally, you kno…”

“I think now what we're seeing is that inference in the aggregate is actually probably a much larger draw than the training in the long run.”

“If I were a betting person, I would say yes. I think somebody will achieve scientific break-even this decade, and possibly more than one.”

“If you can find hydrogen under the ground, the reality is you should be able to produce it from a volumetric standpoint at a similar cost that we produce natural gas out of the ground.”

“I think, you know, the future of maritime, it's not going to be single fuel. So we're not going to, for example, move into one single fuel. I think, you know, as a contrast to aviation, where I think there's a convergence that we need sustainable aviation fuel…”

“In the long term, if you look at the projections and the numbers, I think if costs were the driver, then the cost of ammonia is going to be cheaper than the cost of e-methanol.”

“The peak will keep on going into the later evening, early nighttime hours, and the off peak will be in the middle of the day when the sun is shining and you have a lot of solar generation, both supply side and customer side.”

“My guess is, you know, your 300 megawatt data center on a fully loaded levelized cost of flop is just gonna be cheaper.”

“I think vehicle to home to provide resiliency in North America is a thing. I was struck by, I mean, I've done some time in the United States, and when I first went out there From the energy perspective, I was fascinated by this thing where people used to go to…”

“My sense is that all those two-hour battery storage deals that we just mentioned at data centers, they still have gensets, likely diesel for those longer duration emergency events, and they're not at all mutually exclusive, and in fact, it may be that predomin…”

“And I really believe that's a category we're going to see a lot more of and already are starting to see pop up as this kind of electric vehicle chargers paired in some way with storage to buffer their demand against the grid.”

“Part of the beam, especially the central part of the beam, will likely be exceeding safety limits up to perhaps a couple of hundred watts per square meter.”

“The industry is literally increasing by almost doubling every year. And we'll continue to do that for the next five or six years and doubling off of a huge base now.”

“Transporting hydrogen by pipeline, which can also be an option between, you know, different continents and will be definitely an option and the cheapest option for Europe.”

“Actually a lot of the competition is probably going to become more from Southeast Asia than it is from, directly from, I mean, China, of course, will be a huge part of the story because they're the ones who are driving the total scale and the whole pie getting…”

“I would say that there's been a lot of growth in that, but we see that kind of leveling out where we really see the consumption of AI or inference that's driving that regional specific growth going forward. And I think that's where it's more embedded. And a lo…”

“And then as soon as that's in the federal register, then the lawsuits are going to start Flying. And they will presume they all, almost all will go to the D.C. Circuit, which will then eventually, you know, one, everybody expects something, some challenge on t…”

“And so then what you'll see is anything around tariffs or IRA incentives getting cut will likely get passed on to the rate payers. That's my best guess from what I'm seeing.”

“With respect to Forty-five-Q and other tax credits in the IRA, the Inflation Reduction Act I give high odds That they will sustain, 45 Q, 45 V related projects.”

“I do think it's going to be unusual to It's going to be big in those economies, but not the rest of the world. India is not going to do this. The US is not going to do this. South Africa is not going to do this. They have other options. And so ammonia is a pow…”

“And I think it is going to continue to be the case that Jet A is going to be the winner, and synthetic fuels of all stripes still have to make Jet A.”

“There are not going to be huge amounts of ammonia pipelines going around the world. Like, we're not going to see that. The way that we use ammonia pipelines in the U.S. Today is sort of very unusual and bespoke for our purpose, but that's not the way that we'r…”

“Overall, though, you know, when it comes to clean energy, certainly this year, you know, the last three years really have been declining. Overall dollars have declined, you know, each year, and this year is no exception, and it will probably be a similar thing…”

“So I'd say by 20, 26, 20, 27, we'll, we'll see some of these larger scale long duration projects just coming online and we'll definitely be, Watching and likely involved in some of those.”

“Today's generation is based on waste oils, fats, and greases. As you mentioned, Shale, they compete with food crops. They don't have great greenhouse gas reduction. Oh, and by the way, they don't scale. We're just, there's no way we're going to get to, you kno…”

“Over the next few years, we're going to see the increasing kind of adoption of silicon materials. And again, some silicon materials, not all, but some silicon materials will give you a Cost advantage over graphite. So on a per kilowatt hour basis, you'll have …”

“So I do think some of these projects are still, are not going to go forward at certain stages. You know, and that's kind of classic. A lot of times, you know, maybe half the announced projects end up getting built. The pipeline is way bigger than the demand to…”

“I think we're all sort of in agreement that passenger vehicle transportation is Probably not in the offing for hydrogen.”

“I'd be surprised if we and EIP and others like us don't have in two or three years at least a couple of companies who have, you know, an AI co-pilot or something where AI is the core offering of what they're doing.”

“I think we're actually five years away from all of those technologies being available at scale to the marketplace.”

“The numbers I typically see is we will utilize less than 10% of it. Most of it has to go into deep storage, be it depleted oil and gas reservoirs with tight overseal, or into deep saline aquifers. Like, the vast majority has to go into permanent storage withou…”

“I think we're gonna see that particularly when it comes to customers who are willing to pay a premium for You know, perhaps newer technology that is not yet come very far down the cost curve. And, you know, I, again, I think what we're gonna see it from compan…”

“Yeah, I think you're right on the timeframes for what that looks like in that five-year window. I think we start to see deployments happen in, in, in smaller scales in that timeframe, but you're still talking about just a couple plans here and there.”

“I'm anticipating that the vast majority will not be able to reach commercial scale and not be able to reach the market, so we'll either see a bunch of consolidation or a bunch of dead companies in the wake of whatever reckoning may be coming.”

“First plasma on Eater is expected in, hopefully, within a few years, twenty-twenty-five, twenty-twenty-six timeframe.”

“These companies are saying about 20, 24 for entry into market. I am guessing it's probably going to be more like 20, 26 by the time they're actually able to deliver aircraft on a regular basis to customers.”

“I expect, you know, second half of 20 seconds, you'll see NeoCloud sort of growth be unlocked much more through the actions of NVIDIA as they provide their volunteer support.”

“But by our analysis, you know, it's really a market for commuter flights, and for flights of, you know, 300 kilometers or less for the foreseeable future, just because of the underlying mass penalties of the technology.”

“There's this jurisdictional question, and on that one, I think there's obviously going to be a variety of perspectives, and there will be concerns on the part of, especially of some state commissioners, officials, and certainly the investor-owned utilities.”

“I think, you know, unfortunately, we're probably going to see prices increasing, you know, moderately in, in the next kind of year or so, I would say, or kind of, let's say two years out, we'll probably see higher prices than we're at today. But I don't think,…”

“So in the UK and the US alone, we're talking about a half a terawatt of capacity, distributed resource capacity, getting installed very quickly here in the next couple of years.”

“My guess is that what we're going to see before too long is utility programs or state subsidy programs where where you're charging capacity or you, your utility rates are going to be charged relative to your participation in these types of programs.”

“We're still waiting for the commercial deployment of the sort of the actual iron-making cell, which should come in the next, I think, year or two, but honestly, you would know better than me.”

“I think roughly speaking, it's certainly set to double or triple in the next few years. I don't have a precise number, but it's certainly large enough that it's going to have an outsized impact.”

“I also don't expect the cues to get even worse than they are. I think there are a lot of activities to improve the cue processing issue.”

“Right now, coming off of the Holland, Michigan line, we're on schedule for early next year to be a hundred percent non-Chinese in terms of all of the components and subcomponents that are going into those ESS cells.”

“And, you know, right now, I would say, you know, New York, ah, PJM, MISO, those are all regions where we expect to see a lot more growth. Than we've seen historically.”

“We're not at the point yet where You know, we expect major failures of property insurers.”

“I would say New York will likely lead in, in megawatts initially, and this is more because New York has assets participating in, in programs that will be directly transferred in, namely their DSASP or their ancillary service markets.”

“You know this year, we're probably gonna have more solar installed in toto, cumulative, than wind.”

“You'll, you'll, you'll begin to see the impact of throughout the ecosystem from a workforce development perspective and from a community engagement perspective, and then you'll see projects probably towards the third or fourth quarter of next year.”

“And at that point, we're going to have the LG GM Ultium joint venture making over a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries throughout this country. LG Stellantis will be making 35 gigawatt hours. Stellantis Samsung STI will be making another 30. And then Ford wil…”

“And at that point, we're going to have the LG GM Ultium joint venture making over a hundred gigawatt hours of batteries throughout this country. LG Stellantis will be making 35 gigawatt hours. Stellantis Samsung STI will be making another 30. And then Ford wil…”

“So, to your question, the markets are very likely to be tight up until twenty-twenty-five, because we know that in twenty-twenty-five, a certain number of new LNG plans are going to start. Golden Pass, although they have said 24 potentially, but I tend to be c…”

“We'll probably hit that capacity again in the next two years. So we could be basically adding capacity at the rate of a new nuclear power station on the grid every couple of years, and of course that growth is accelerating vastly.”

“First Solar was, is just over the moon about this. Right. This is like the biggest boon for them that you could possibly imagine, because they're already manufacturing here, and they can scale up relatively quickly, and so that's exactly what they're going to …”

“I would generally say that BYD itself is generally reaching, like, Tesla level dominance in the Chinese market now, because with the most recent releases, they're probably going to get to maybe 40% Market share among NEVs in China, which is just, you know, li…”

“Over the next 12 to 24 months, we're still going to be living in a world where most electric vehicles sold are luxury or near luxury vehicles.”

“So we just released our year ahead at the end of December, and we see about 32% growth.”

“Right now I'm projecting a, you know, a flat to a five percent increase in twenty-twenty-four.”

“Which the residential solar market between interest rates and some policy changes, particularly in California around net metering, that's a market that might be down over the next year. You know, relative to this year, and I think this year might be down relat…”

“We think that we're going to get to about six percent by 2024, six percent of new cars sold will be EVs.”

“Permitting is the biggest of them, but it looks like some of those for the first large projects are happening now, and so we expect to see some of the first projects getting built over the next couple of years”

“Thirty-nine billion dollars last year is definitely the floor on what we're gonna see over the next 12 months.”

“And of course, California and Texas are getting the lion's share of these, of what's going to be installed over the next two years.”

“They asked for public, the Department of Energy asked for public comment, and I think there was enough out there and enough concern expressed that I suspect a compromise position is going to come out. I don't think what they had originally released will actual…”

“The FERC reform rulemaking is likely to proceed, regardless of new commissioners coming, just because, like, that one was actually passed on a The proposal was passed on a bipartisan five-zero vote at FERC.”

“I think projections have them increasing something like three times over the next 18 months primarily driven by markets like California and Texas.”

“These prices will not, I would bet against nickels being at 30 dollars a kilogram two years from now, because two years ago it was less than 20, and there were plenty of good opportunities, good projects out there, new projects that would work at 20.”

“We'll see a much lower install capacity in twenty-twenty-three of renewables than in twenty-twenty-two, or than what was projected due to supply chain constraints.”

“Essentially what we're expecting to see next year now is a doubling of the entire installed capacity Of US energy storage in twenty-twenty-three alone. In other words, everything that's been built and installed in the US is about to double in what's installed …”

“The, a good assumption to make is that it's, everything's going to be put into a bucket, 50% of the overall value of that battery has to be satisfied, but they haven't specifically said that yet.”

“And so I think certainly Europe's going into recession, and a pretty high expectation that the U.S. Will be in a recession, and that's now permeating the oil price”

“We think that this, the polysilicon shortage, we strongly think will end maybe in the next three months, although I've been saying that for a while.”

“We are forecasting officially 251 gigawatts of build this year, up from 182 last year. So that's pretty strong growth, and I wouldn't be surprised if it comes out at higher than 251 gigawatts.”

“Kit Carson Electric Cooperative that serves the area around Taos in New Mexico. Set a goal to get to a hundred percent of their daytime energy usage generated from local solar by 2022. And they are, they're making that goal. They're going to be there within a …”