Opinion
Frith: Past subsidies are not fundamental to China's current battery cost advantage
“So the subsidies from the last decade They've helped to build up these big companies that we know, BYD, CATL, Eve Energy, etc. But they're not fundamental in this, you know, in the way that people think they are to the kind of low-cost structure that we're see…”
Prediction Held up
Frith: Lowest battery spot prices will rise while average prices continue falling
“I think, you know, unfortunately, we're probably going to see prices increasing, you know, moderately in, in the next kind of year or so, I would say, or kind of, let's say two years out, we'll probably see higher prices than we're at today. But I don't think,…”
Assertion Supported
Frith: Normalized US LFP cell production is 8% costlier than China
“For a LFP cell produced in China, 35 gigawatt hour facility you're looking at around kind of 68 dollars per kilowatt hour. So this isn't kind of optimized for these super low prices that we we're seeing today, but Assumes a kind of LFP material costs of about …”
Assertion Supported
Frith: Northvolt's yield struggles inflated costs and lost BMW's contract
“Northvolt started manufacturing cells on its plant around the end of twenty-twenty-two, I believe. So, kind of, we're coming up to two years now. And if the, you know, media reports are to be believed, they're still having a huge issue with yields. They can't …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Frith: Chinese battery makers lack international IP for next-gen chemistries
“The technologies that are about to be adopted and, you know, going back to Silicon as an example here, right, imminently going to be adopted in electric vehicles. A lot of Chinese companies don't have the freedom to kind of operate and sell that material outsi…”
Opinion
Frith: Western-Chinese partnerships can enable differentiated battery manufacturing onshoring
“Partnerships with kind of Chinese cell manufacturers, Western technology developers, I think is a big way that would be kind of almost a win-win situation for everyone, and would see us onshoring battery manufacturing in, in, in the US and Europe, with a diffe…”
Assertion Supported
Frith: Chinese LFP battery cell prices have fallen to $50/kWh
“We've got LFP prices from China down at kind of 50 bucks per kilowatt hour, which is... That, that's at the sell level, yeah. Exactly, that's at the sell level.”
Assertion Supported
Frith: Chinese turnkey energy storage systems now cost $135/kWh
“At a system level, kind of for a turnkey system, you're looking at something like a 135 dollars per kilowatt hour. So again, kind of crazy low considering that 18 months ago, the average price of a cell was about 135 dollars per kilowatt hour.”
Assertion Supported
Frith: Chinese battery makers are liquidating expensive stockpiles
“And that's that a lot of the companies in China and the supply chain, cell manufacturers, and material providers had stockpiled material over the last couple of years, particularly when raw material prices were very high. And so they then have that material si…”
Prediction Held up
Frith: Silicon anodes will eventually beat graphite on cost
“Over the next few years, we're going to see the increasing kind of adoption of silicon materials. And again, some silicon materials, not all, but some silicon materials will give you a Cost advantage over graphite. So on a per kilowatt hour basis, you'll have …”
Assertion Supported
Frith: Raw materials constitute 70% of LFP battery cell costs
“The operational costs account for somewhere around, kind of, 20% of the total cost of a cell. You've then got roughly 10%, which is, is related to the, kind of, capex, so equipment and plant capex, and then the rest of what you're looking at, kind of, 70% or s…”
Assertion Partly supported
Frith: 90% of China's battery capacity was built between 2020 and 2024
“If we go back to 20 20, kind of commissioned capacity in China was about 550 gigawatt hours. By the end of this year you know, if all the kind of projects that are under construction are completed, you'll be looking at about 4.5 TeraWatt hours of capacity. So,…”
Assertion Supported
Frith: Lithium prices have dropped below $20,000 per metric ton
“So we've got lithium kind of, not at an all-time low, but, you know, very depressed, below kind of 20,000 dollars per metric ton.”
