James Frith evaluates the true impact of Chinese industrial subsidies versus operational scaling in battery manufacturing.
Prediction Held up
Frith: Lowest battery spot prices will rise while average prices continue falling
“I think, you know, unfortunately, we're probably going to see prices increasing, you know, moderately in, in the next kind of year or so, I would say, or kind of, let's say two years out, we'll probably see higher prices than we're at today. But I don't think,…”
Assertion Supported
Frith: Normalized US LFP cell production is 8% costlier than China
“For a LFP cell produced in China, 35 gigawatt hour facility you're looking at around kind of 68 dollars per kilowatt hour. So this isn't kind of optimized for these super low prices that we we're seeing today, but Assumes a kind of LFP material costs of about …”
Assertion Supported
Frith: Northvolt's yield struggles inflated costs and lost BMW's contract
“Northvolt started manufacturing cells on its plant around the end of twenty-twenty-two, I believe. So, kind of, we're coming up to two years now. And if the, you know, media reports are to be believed, they're still having a huge issue with yields. They can't …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Frith: Chinese battery makers lack international IP for next-gen chemistries
“The technologies that are about to be adopted and, you know, going back to Silicon as an example here, right, imminently going to be adopted in electric vehicles. A lot of Chinese companies don't have the freedom to kind of operate and sell that material outsi…”
Opinion
Frith: Western-Chinese partnerships can enable differentiated battery manufacturing onshoring
“Partnerships with kind of Chinese cell manufacturers, Western technology developers, I think is a big way that would be kind of almost a win-win situation for everyone, and would see us onshoring battery manufacturing in, in, in the US and Europe, with a diffe…”
Assertion Supported
Frith: Chinese LFP battery cell prices have fallen to $50/kWh
“We've got LFP prices from China down at kind of 50 bucks per kilowatt hour, which is... That, that's at the sell level, yeah. Exactly, that's at the sell level.”