Insight
Corbeau: Hydrogen Is a Conversion Business, Not a Rent Business Like Oil
“From an economic point of view, many developing countries want to benefit the maximum from hydrogen, and hydrogen is not a rent business. It's not like oil or gas. It's a conversion industry, so you are never going to get as much revenues and benefits as you w…”
Assertion Partly supported
Russia withheld European gas supplies months before the invasion of Ukraine
“Russia was actually not booking more capacity in order to send gas to the market. So we had the impression that they were a little bit withholding, you know, gas supplies.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
The EU did not voluntarily cut Russian gas; Putin cut supplies
“The European Commission is always very prompt at saying, uh-oh, We have been very successful at reducing our imports of Russian gas. I mean, look, you know, they have been really down. And I'm saying, well, I am very sorry, but actually you have not Mr. Putin …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Corbeau: Fragmenting hydrogen transport across multiple carriers will stall cost reductions
“Here we have so many solutions, and if we embark in each of them, then we are not going to get the cost improvements that are required.”
Assertion Supported
Corbeau: Japan's Hydrogen Strategy Envisages 20% Ammonia Co-Firing with Coal
“When you are looking at, you know, the Japanese hydrogen strategy, they do envisage to use that combined with coal. So right now they are looking at coal firing with 20% of ammonia, and this is why it could be potentially a bigger market for ammonia.”
Prediction Held up
Corbeau: Pipelines will definitely be Europe's cheapest hydrogen transport option
“Transporting hydrogen by pipeline, which can also be an option between, you know, different continents and will be definitely an option and the cheapest option for Europe.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2033
Corbeau: LOHC and ammonia will lead hydrogen carrier cost race next decade
“I think right now it's a battle between LOHC and ammonia in terms of costs for the kind of next 10 years.”
Opinion
Corbeau: Energy trust between Europe and Russia is permanently dead
“The first one is that the trust which kind of existed between Europe and Russia is dead. I mean, this is never going to be restored again.”
Assertion Supported
Europe quietly continues to import Russian LNG despite the war
“We are importing Russian LNG. And, you know, I wrote a little note on that, and suddenly everybody realized, oh, actually, Russian LNG is still coming to Europe. Yes, it's still coming. Nobody's talking about that. This is actually included in the global LNG s…”
Prediction Held up
Corbeau predicts global LNG markets will remain tight until 2025
“So, to your question, the markets are very likely to be tight up until twenty-twenty-five, because we know that in twenty-twenty-five, a certain number of new LNG plans are going to start. Golden Pass, although they have said 24 potentially, but I tend to be c…”
Assertion Supported
Xi Jinping's zero-COVID policy inadvertently saved Europe from a gas crisis
“The reason, one of the main reasons why Europe has been going through the past year is because of Xi Jinping and its zero COVID policy. Because Chinese gas demand has been muted, its LNG imports have declined massively, and China in 2021 was the largest LNG im…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Corbeau: China is absent from bilateral hydrogen export deals
“There have been a lot of deals being signed by a certain number of European countries, Japan, Korea, with potential exporters of hydrogen, but China has been relatively absent of all those deals.”
Assertion Supported
Corbeau: Hydrogen liquefaction consumes ~30% of energy content versus 5-10% for LNG
“Typically right now it's about, you know, 30% of the energy which is in hydrogen will be, you know, used in order to basically liquefy the hydrogen. Typically for natural gas it's between five to 10%.”
Assertion Supported
Corbeau: IEA estimates e-methane production costs at roughly $80 per MMBtu
“I mean you know, the cost of producing the e-methane would be, I mean, the estimates from the IA right now is something around 80 dollars per mmbtu, which is about 10 times, you know, the normal price of natural gas.”
Prediction Held up
Corbeau: LOHC hydrogen transport will cost $2.50 to $4 per kg by 2030
“So, you know, when I was talking about, you know, the high range of liquid hydrogen by 2030, which is above seven dollars per kilogram you know, the high range for liquid organic hydrogen carriers would be around four dollars per kilogram. So this is much lowe…”
Insight
Corbeau: $3 to $4 per kg transport costs make hydrogen economically unviable
“I mean, just to say, I mean, you know, if the transport cost is indeed remaining at three, four dollars per kilogram, I mean, you know, this is kind of game over because that would come on top of the production cost of hydrogen. So that would make hydrogen out…”
Assertion Supported
Corbeau: Repurposing gas pipelines for hydrogen saves 50% to 80% of costs
“I mean, you are gaining something like, you know 50 to 80% of the cost if you are reusing your pipeline.”
Insight
The European gas market acts as the global swing balancing mechanism
“What is really very important to understand about the European market is that this is basically the supply adjustment for the global gas market. So if you have a very tight market, then the LNG is going to go away from Europe.”
Assertion Supported
European gas prices reached a $580 per barrel oil equivalent in 2022
“Prices went to 100 dollars per MMBTU. So with all due respect to my old friends, we in the gas market have reached 580 dollars per barrel.”
Assertion Supported
European imports of Russian pipeline gas dropped 82 percent by 2023
“In 2021, we were importing one hundred forty billion cubic meters of Russian Pipeline gas. Now we are importing the equivalent of 25.”
What-if
EU gas tightness was exacerbated by simultaneous nuclear and hydro shortfalls
“If we didn't have that problem, then we could have had a reduction of gas demand in the power sector, and the situation would be much less tight.”
Assertion Supported
Corbeau: EU targets 10 million tons of hydrogen imports by 2030
“So you have the European Union as a large has said, yes, by 2030, I am saying that I want to import ten million tons of hydrogen.”
Assertion Supported
Corbeau: China consumes roughly one-third of global hydrogen demand
“China is the largest producer and consumer of hydrogen. The numbers vary a little bit, but roughly around a third of total hydrogen demand is consumed in China.”
Assertion Supported
Corbeau: First liquid hydrogen shipment carried 75 tons versus 94M-ton global market
“The Suizo Frontier transported about 75 tons of hydrogen. So just to give you an idea, I mean, the global market for hydrogen right now is ninety-four million tons of hydrogen.”
