AI data centers

13 statements across 10 episodes · 3 bullish · 5 bearish · 9 people on the record · first statement Feb 15, 2024 by Nat Bullard · across every show →

Everything said about AI data centers, oldest first

Feb 15, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Bullard: AI data center load growth mirrors greenfield smelting era
“I'm planning for industrial load growth of the sort that grids haven't known since maybe they were building greenfield smelting capacities or things like that.”
Nat Bullard Feb 15, 2024 ▶ 40:57 More 2024 trends: ESG, carbon certifications, curtailment, and AI
Jun 6, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baglino: AI power demand is overhyped by a 'toilet paper' queue run
“I'm not so sure that it is going to be as dramatic as people think, both because I think there's a little bit of the toilet paper problem going on here... You've got all of these companies that think AI is going to be massive and want AI to be massive, and th…”
Drew Baglino Jun 6, 2024 ▶ 28:51 Drew Baglino on Tesla’s Master Plan
Feb 13, 2025 neutral
Disclosure
Kimber: Intersect pivoted clean power assets from hydrogen to AI
“We thought maybe hydrogen would be first because of the supply side supports under the IRA. The demand just didn't materialize, and now all of a sudden, AI has just swept up all of the assets that we developed for, you know, behind the meter And co-located loa…”
Sheldon Kimber Feb 13, 2025 ▶ 19:32 The case for colocating data centers and generation
Feb 13, 2025 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Kimber: AI data centers will never offer flexible power load
“Every second you aren't running that at a hundred percent capacity factor is enormous amortized cost, right? So that it's just, it's one of those things where it's like, you'd be a fool to turn it down. You have to at some points because operationally, you kno…”
Sheldon Kimber Feb 13, 2025 ▶ 28:49 The case for colocating data centers and generation
Jun 12, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Sharp: Power and financing do not exist for top AI growth projections
“Where, you know, the power, the amount of power, and even the amount of financing required to meet these upper end projections, it doesn't exist, right?”
Chris Sharp Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 24:51 The state of play of data center development
Aug 28, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sivaram: 50-100 GW of AI Data Centers Cannot Be Built Without Flexibility
“We've got 50 to a hundred gigawatts of latent AI demand in the pipeline. It's just not gonna get built unless you have this capability of flexibility.”
Varun Sivaram Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 23:54 The mechanics of data center flexibility
Aug 28, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sivaram: AI data centers could consume 25% of US electricity by 2035
“Data centers, which today are about four percent of American energy consumption, AI data centers are about five gigawatts of load, grow to 12% by the end of the decade. AI data centers could be anywhere up to 50 or even more gigawatts, to 25% of American load …”
Varun Sivaram Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 27:10 The mechanics of data center flexibility
Aug 28, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Sivaram: Modern AI data centers convert 90% of power into compute
“Historically, a data center might lose 33% of the power or use it, 33% of that power for non-IT or information technology uses, and the remaining 66 or 67% goes into actual computations. Nowadays, with the increasingly customized design of these AI factories a…”
Varun Sivaram Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 5:14 The mechanics of data center flexibility
Nov 13, 2025 bearish
Assertion Supported
Garabedian: ERCOT green power prices doubled to $65/MWh amid AI demand
“If you look in West Texas and you were to sign a solar and wind kind of affirmed green power purchase agreement in, in Texas and Urquhart territory three years ago, you might've paid 35 dollars a megawatt hour for that product. Today you're paying 65, maybe mo…”
Rafi Garabedian Nov 13, 2025 ▶ 10:38 Driving down the cost of green hydrogen
Dec 18, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
AI training data centers run dummy workloads to flatten dangerous power spikes
“What they do in large part, because those spikes are actually problematic, not just to the grid, but to the equipment inside the data center as well. So what they do at least sometimes to manage that is they create dummy workloads. So they keep the power profi…”
Shayle Kann Dec 18, 2025 ▶ 19:00 Will inference move to the edge?
Jan 15, 2026 neutral
Insight
Bullard: Aeroderivative turbines are not designed for decade-long constant baseload power
“Aero derivatives are traditionally used for very specific applications, and they're not being used necessarily to power things all the time, constantly for a decade straight. They can, but that's just not typically within the design spec.”
Nat Bullard Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 21:05 2026 trends: Gas turbines, Texas’ load queue and China electrifies
Apr 2, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Nolan: Advanced reactors will surprise on deployment speed for AI demand
“We think that they're going to surprise everyone in their deployment speed and scale up, and, you know, just looking at the landscape of energy demand in the U.S. We haven't grown the grid for decades and yet now we have this huge surge of demand for data cent…”
Scott Nolan Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 28:00 Building a domestic nuclear fuel supply chain
Jul 9, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Eliahu-Ontiveros: Massive AI data center campuses will concentrate in West Texas
“I think the way big data centers, big data center campuses are going to look like a few years from now, again, like, obviously the scenario is we keep adding tens of gigawatts per year that keeps growing, so, you know, we're in this AI scenario. I'm, you know,…”
Jeremy Eliahu-Ontiveros Jul 9, 2026 ▶ 37:49 Inside the AI power wars
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