Prediction Didn’t hold up AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 3/5 debate potential 4/5

Friedberg: Turkey faces risk of being challenged in NATO in 2024

David Friedberg · E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more · Jan 6, 2024 · at 47:01

David Friedberg (The Production Board) discusses geopolitical risks on All-In, predicting potential fracturing of NATO over Turkey's stance on Hamas and alignment with Western adversaries.

0:00 / 0:43exact quote · 43.9s
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“I think there's a risk that Turkey gets challenged to leave NATO. That a lot of what's going on right now where Turkey is siding with Hamas, this has obviously been talked about and rumored about for a long time. There's no real mechanism, by the way, for kicking a member out of NATO, but I'll share with you guys. There's a lot of political commentary that Turkey cannot be a trusted ally. And obviously that now, you know, Turkey is siding with folks who are actual threats to the West. The U S incentive is you don't want to see Turkey with the biggest, one of the biggest armies in Europe run into Russia's arms. You're gonna try to keep them in NATO, but there is a real risk that you start to see the first fracturing of NATO happen with Turkey being asked to leave or some negotiation on something that happens this year.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

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