The Argument Index
Debate potential by speaker, the highest-scored statement each year, and the companies with the most bearish calls on record. All of it clickable, all of it playable.
People
Average debate potential by speaker
All 203 guests with 5 or more scored statements, ranked. 20 more have fewer than 5, too few for a fair average. Sort or filter below.
| # | Person | Avg debate potential | Statements scored |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeffrey Sachs University Professor, Columbia University | 4.27 | 15 |
| 2 | Michael Tracey Independent Journalist & Political Commentator | 3.93 | 15 |
| 3 | Alex Karp Co-founder & CEO, Palantir Technologies | 3.87 | 23 |
| 4 | Antonio Garcia Martinez Director of Ads, Base (Coinbase) | 3.86 | 7 |
| 5 | Tucker Carlson Founder, Tucker Carlson Network | 3.84 | 86 |
| 6 | Tulsi Gabbard Former Director of National Intelligence | 3.75 | 12 |
| 7 | Vivek Ramaswamy Co-founder, Strive Asset Management | 3.72 | 36 |
| 8 | Adam Carolla Host, The Adam Carolla Show | 3.65 | 17 |
| 9 | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Secretary, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services | 3.64 | 39 |
| 10 | Coleman Hughes Author & Host, Conversations with Coleman | 3.62 | 8 |
| 11 | Tim Dillon Comedian & Host, The Tim Dillon Show | 3.6 | 10 |
| 12 | Donald Trump Jr. Executive Vice President, The Trump Organization | 3.6 | 5 |
| 13 | Michael Shellenberger Founder and Editor, Public | 3.6 | 5 |
| 14 | Megyn Kelly Host, The Megyn Kelly Show | 3.54 | 13 |
| 15 | John Mearsheimer Professor of Political Science, University of Chicago | 3.53 | 17 |
| 16 | Shervin Pishevar Co-Founder, Sofreh Capital | 3.5 | 6 |
| 17 | Chris Christie Managing Partner, Christie 55 Solutions | 3.47 | 34 |
| 18 | Rand Paul U.S. Senator, United States Senate | 3.45 | 20 |
| 19 | Glenn Greenwald Host and Publisher, System Update | 3.44 | 9 |
| 20 | Larry Summers President Emeritus, Harvard University | 3.43 | 30 |
| 21 | Spencer Pratt Founder, Pratt Daddy | 3.43 | 23 |
| 22 | Sarah B. Rogers Under Secretary of State, U.S. Department of State | 3.42 | 12 |
| 23 | Cathie Wood Founder & CEO, ARK Invest | 3.42 | 12 |
| 24 | Senator Eric Schmitt U.S. Senator, U.S. Senate | 3.42 | 12 |
| 25 | John Fetterman U.S. Senator, United States Senate | 3.4 | 43 |
| 26 | Sheryl Sandberg Former COO, Meta | 3.38 | 8 |
| 27 | Stephen Wolfram Founder & CEO, Wolfram Research | 3.38 | 8 |
| 28 | Eric Weinstein Former Managing Director, Thiel Capital | 3.38 | 24 |
| 29 | JD Vance Vice President, United States | 3.34 | 35 |
| 30 | Joe Manchin Former U.S. Senator, United States Senate | 3.33 | 21 |
| 31 | Bari Weiss Founder, The Free Press | 3.33 | 6 |
| 32 | Rob Henderson Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute | 3.29 | 14 |
| 33 | Peter Thiel Partner and Co-Founder, Founders Fund | 3.27 | 26 |
| 34 | Nick Shirley Independent Investigative Journalist & YouTuber | 3.25 | 12 |
| 35 | Donald J. Trump President, United States | 3.23 | 40 |
| 36 | Saagar Enjeti Co-host and Co-founder, Breaking Points | 3.17 | 6 |
| 37 | Pete Buttigieg Former U.S. Secretary of Transportation | 3.16 | 31 |
| 38 | Balaji Srinivasan Founder, The Network School | 3.13 | 15 |
| 39 | Tom Goldstein Co-Founder, SCOTUSblog | 3.11 | 9 |
| 40 | Jonathan Haidt Professor of Ethical Leadership, NYU Stern | 3.1 | 31 |
| 41 | Elon Musk CEO, Tesla and SpaceX | 3.09 | 134 |
| 42 | Reid Hoffman Partner, Greylock | 3.09 | 22 |
| 43 | Ben Shapiro Co-Founder and Host, The Daily Wire | 3.08 | 40 |
| 44 | Tom Emmer House Majority Whip, U.S. House of Representatives | 3.07 | 15 |
| 45 | Kyrsten Sinema U.S. Senator, United States Senate | 3.07 | 14 |
| 46 | Chris Wright Secretary of Energy, U.S. Department of Energy | 3.04 | 27 |
| 47 | Naval Ravikant Co-founder and Chairman, AngelList | 3.03 | 29 |
| 48 | Rick Caruso Founder and Executive Chairman, Caruso | 3 | 9 |
| 49 | Eric Schmidt Founder & Chair, SCSP | 3 | 10 |
| 50 | Keith Rabois Managing Director, Khosla Ventures | 3 | 42 |
| 51 | Ezra Klein Columnist & Podcast Host, The New York Times | 3 | 10 |
| 52 | Steve Hilton Founder and CEO, Golden Together | 2.96 | 27 |
| 53 | Rahm Emanuel Former U.S. Ambassador to Japan | 2.96 | 25 |
| 54 | Michael Kratsios Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy | 2.95 | 19 |
| 55 | Senator Ron Johnson U.S. Senator, United States Senate | 2.92 | 26 |
| 56 | Tim Urban Co-Founder & Writer, Wait But Why | 2.92 | 12 |
| 57 | Howard Lutnick Commerce Secretary, U.S. Department of Commerce | 2.91 | 78 |
| 58 | Brooke Rollins Secretary of Agriculture, USDA | 2.89 | 19 |
| 59 | Palmer Luckey Founder, Anduril Industries | 2.89 | 19 |
| 60 | Aaron Levie Co-Founder & CEO, Box | 2.88 | 16 |
| 61 | Dean Phillips Former U.S. Representative, Minnesota's 3rd District | 2.87 | 31 |
| 62 | Matt Mahan Mayor, City of San José | 2.87 | 60 |
| 63 | Anatoly Yakovenko Co-Founder and CEO, Solana Labs | 2.86 | 22 |
| 64 | Antonio Gracias Founder & CEO, Valor Equity Partners | 2.86 | 58 |
| 65 | Vinod Khosla Founder, Khosla Ventures | 2.86 | 14 |
| 66 | Bill Maris Founder and General Partner, S32 | 2.86 | 14 |
| 67 | Ro Khanna U.S. Representative, U.S. House of Representatives | 2.85 | 59 |
| 68 | Mark Cuban Co-founder, Mark Cuban Cost Plus Drug Company | 2.85 | 85 |
| 69 | Shyam Sankar CTO & EVP, Palantir Technologies | 2.84 | 31 |
| 70 | Graham Allison Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School | 2.83 | 36 |
| 71 | Vlad Tenev Co-Founder & CEO, Robinhood | 2.82 | 28 |
| 72 | Gavin Baker Managing Partner & CIO, Atreides Management | 2.79 | 146 |
| 73 | Joe Lonsdale Founder & Managing Partner, 8VC | 2.79 | 29 |
| 74 | Josh Shapiro Governor, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania | 2.79 | 19 |
| 75 | Hemant Taneja CEO & Managing Director, General Catalyst | 2.78 | 9 |
| 76 | Jared Kushner Founder & CEO, Affinity Partners | 2.78 | 32 |
| 77 | Emil Michael Under Secretary of Defense, U.S. Department of Defense | 2.78 | 37 |
| 78 | Ray Dalio Founder and Mentor, Bridgewater Associates | 2.77 | 47 |
| 79 | Tony Robbins Chairman, Robbins Research International | 2.75 | 20 |
| 80 | Cyan Banister General Partner, Long Journey Ventures | 2.75 | 16 |
| 81 | Senator Ted Cruz U.S. Senator from Texas, United States Senate | 2.75 | 20 |
| 82 | Bob Mumgaard Co-founder & CEO, Commonwealth Fusion Systems | 2.75 | 8 |
| 83 | Bill Gurley General Partner, Benchmark | 2.74 | 53 |
| 84 | Scott Bessent Secretary of the Treasury, U.S. Department of the Treasury | 2.73 | 70 |
| 85 | María Corina Machado National Coordinator, Vente Venezuela | 2.73 | 15 |
| 86 | Draymond Green NBA Player, Golden State Warriors | 2.73 | 11 |
| 87 | Reza Pahlavi | 2.73 | 11 |
| 88 | Bernt Børnich Founder & CEO, 1X Technologies | 2.71 | 7 |
| 89 | Dr. Marty Makary Professor Emeritus, Johns Hopkins University | 2.7 | 43 |
| 90 | Rene Haas CEO, Arm | 2.7 | 10 |
| 91 | Andrew Schulz Stand-up Comedian and Podcast Host | 2.7 | 20 |
| 92 | Eric Swalwell Former U.S. Representative, California | 2.69 | 13 |
| 93 | Dr. Mehmet Oz Administrator, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services | 2.67 | 39 |
| 94 | Michael Selig Chairman, CFTC | 2.67 | 6 |
| 95 | Bill Ackman Founder and CEO, Pershing Square Capital Management | 2.62 | 13 |
| 96 | Bryan Johnson Founder, Project Blueprint | 2.6 | 25 |
| 97 | Jensen Huang Founder and CEO, NVIDIA | 2.6 | 52 |
| 98 | Robin Rombach Co-founder & CEO, Black Forest Labs | 2.6 | 5 |
| 99 | Trae Stephens Partner, Founders Fund | 2.58 | 19 |
| 100 | Charles Koch Chairman & Co-CEO, Koch, Inc. | 2.57 | 14 |
| 101 | Brad Gerstner Founder & CEO, Altimeter Capital | 2.54 | 227 |
| 102 | Pat Gelsinger General Partner, Playground Global | 2.54 | 13 |
| 103 | Sam Altman CEO, OpenAI | 2.52 | 31 |
| 104 | Brian Armstrong Co-Founder & CEO, Coinbase | 2.51 | 63 |
| 105 | Paul Buchheit General Partner, Standard Capital | 2.5 | 10 |
| 106 | Philippe Laffont Founder & Portfolio Manager, Coatue Management | 2.5 | 10 |
| 107 | John Collison Co-founder & President, Stripe | 2.5 | 10 |
| 108 | Nikesh Arora Chairman & CEO, Palo Alto Networks | 2.5 | 26 |
| 109 | Dave Portnoy Founder and Owner, Barstool Sports | 2.48 | 29 |
| 110 | Orlando Bravo Founder & Managing Partner, Thoma Bravo | 2.47 | 15 |
| 111 | Marc Benioff Chair, CEO & Co-Founder, Salesforce | 2.46 | 26 |
| 112 | Paul Atkins Chairman, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission | 2.46 | 13 |
| 113 | Garrett Langley Founder & CEO, Flock Safety | 2.46 | 24 |
| 114 | Jared Isaacman Administrator, NASA | 2.44 | 27 |
| 115 | Nate Silver Founder & Author, Silver Bulletin | 2.43 | 47 |
| 116 | Ari Emanuel CEO, TKO Group Holdings | 2.42 | 12 |
| 117 | Senator Dave McCormick U.S. Senator, Pennsylvania | 2.42 | 12 |
| 118 | Jason Koon Professional Poker Player & Ambassador, PokerStars | 2.4 | 5 |
| 119 | Kyle Samani Co-Founder & Managing Partner, Multicoin Capital | 2.4 | 5 |
| 120 | David Kirtley Co-founder & CEO, Helion Energy | 2.4 | 5 |
| 121 | Demis Hassabis CEO & Co-Founder, Isomorphic Labs | 2.38 | 24 |
| 122 | Dan Dreyfus Founder and CIO, Bornite Capital Management | 2.38 | 29 |
| 123 | Dan Loeb Founder, CEO & CIO, Third Point LLC | 2.38 | 13 |
| 124 | Professor Jonathan Hurst Co-founder & Chief Robot Officer, Agility Robotics | 2.38 | 13 |
| 125 | Thomas Laffont Co-Founder & Senior Managing Director, Coatue Management | 2.35 | 49 |
| 126 | Sergey Brin Co-founder, Google | 2.34 | 32 |
| 127 | Sian Beilock President, Dartmouth College | 2.33 | 9 |
| 128 | Joe Tsai Chairman, Alibaba Group | 2.32 | 19 |
| 129 | Tobi Lütke Co-Founder and CEO, Shopify | 2.31 | 13 |
| 130 | Bob Sternfels Global Managing Partner, McKinsey & Company | 2.3 | 10 |
| 131 | Lisa Su Chair and CEO, AMD | 2.3 | 10 |
| 132 | George Kurtz Co-founder & CEO, CrowdStrike | 2.28 | 18 |
| 133 | Mark Pincus Founder & Executive Chairman, Zynga | 2.27 | 22 |
| 134 | Kelly Loeffler Administrator, U.S. Small Business Administration | 2.25 | 12 |
| 135 | Travis Kalanick CEO, Atoms | 2.25 | 60 |
| 136 | Michael Newman Political Analyst | 2.25 | 16 |
| 137 | Tony Hinchcliffe Host, Kill Tony | 2.23 | 13 |
| 138 | Francis Suarez President, Alpha Wave Global | 2.22 | 18 |
| 139 | Will Marshall Co-Founder and CEO, Planet Labs PBC | 2.2 | 5 |
| 140 | Amanda McMaster Executive, Boston Dynamics | 2.2 | 15 |
| 141 | Max Junestrand Co-founder and CEO, Legora | 2.2 | 15 |
| 142 | Andrew Feldman Co-Founder and CEO, Cerebras Systems | 2.18 | 44 |
| 143 | Phil Hellmuth | 2.17 | 12 |
| 144 | Dr. Nicole Paulk CEO & Founder, Siren Biotechnology | 2.17 | 18 |
| 145 | Doug Burgum Secretary, U.S. Department of the Interior | 2.15 | 33 |
| 146 | James Litinsky Founder, Chairman & CEO, MP Materials | 2.15 | 26 |
| 147 | Aravind Srinivas Co-founder & CEO, Perplexity AI | 2.15 | 13 |
| 148 | Ryan Cohen Chairman and CEO, GameStop | 2.14 | 14 |
| 149 | Jeremy Allaire Co-Founder & CEO, Circle | 2.12 | 25 |
| 150 | Andrew Ross Sorkin Co-Anchor, CNBC | 2.12 | 16 |
| 151 | Sarah Friar CFO, OpenAI | 2.1 | 20 |
| 152 | Tandice Urban Co-Founder, The Lanby | 2.09 | 11 |
| 153 | Sundar Pichai CEO, Alphabet and Google | 2.08 | 25 |
| 154 | Michael Ovitz Chairman, Treville Capital Group | 2.07 | 14 |
| 155 | Ingo Uytdehaage Co-CEO, Adyen | 2.06 | 18 |
| 156 | Dino Mavrucas Co-Founder and CEO, Saronic Technologies | 2.06 | 18 |
| 157 | Dara Khosrowshahi CEO, Uber | 2.05 | 19 |
| 158 | Roelof Botha Partner, Sequoia Capital | 2.04 | 23 |
| 159 | Dave Ricks Chair & CEO, Eli Lilly and Company | 2.03 | 71 |
| 160 | Satya Nadella Chairman and CEO, Microsoft | 2 | 13 |
| 161 | Tareq Amin CEO, HUMAIN | 2 | 13 |
| 162 | John Martinis Co-Founder & CTO, Qolab | 2 | 10 |
| 163 | Rich Lyons Chancellor, UC Berkeley | 2 | 5 |
| 164 | Chris Williamson Host and Creator, Modern Wisdom | 2 | 16 |
| 165 | Patrick Collison Co-founder & CEO, Stripe | 2 | 14 |
| 166 | Tekedra Mawakana Co-CEO, Waymo | 2 | 17 |
| 167 | Brian Yutko VP of Product Development, Boeing Commercial Airplanes | 2 | 5 |
| 168 | Gwyneth Paltrow Founder & CEO, Goop | 2 | 10 |
| 169 | John Cohen Founder & CEO, TrueDot | 2 | 5 |
| 170 | Daniel Roberts Co-CEO & Co-Founder, IREN | 2 | 6 |
| 171 | Dr. Peter Fankhauser Co-Founder & CEO, ANYbotics | 2 | 12 |
| 172 | Jake Loosararian Co-Founder and CEO, Gecko Robotics | 1.96 | 26 |
| 173 | Changpeng Zhao (CZ) Founder, Giggle Academy | 1.95 | 39 |
| 174 | Adena Hefets Co-founder & Former CEO, Divvy Homes | 1.95 | 19 |
| 175 | Nico Rosberg Founder and CEO, Rosberg Ventures | 1.93 | 15 |
| 176 | Jenny Just Co-Founder and Managing Partner, PEAK6 Investments | 1.93 | 15 |
| 177 | Michael Intrator Co-Founder and CEO, CoreWeave | 1.93 | 15 |
| 178 | Paul Levesque (Triple H) Chief Content Officer, WWE | 1.92 | 13 |
| 179 | Juan Carlos Izpisua Belmonte Founding Scientist and SVP, Altos Labs | 1.91 | 11 |
| 180 | Mar Hershenson Founding Managing Partner, Pear VC | 1.91 | 11 |
| 181 | JoeBen Bevirt Founder & CEO, Joby Aviation | 1.9 | 10 |
| 182 | Adena Friedman Chair and CEO, Nasdaq | 1.89 | 19 |
| 183 | Chase Koch EVP of Origination and Partnerships, Koch, Inc. | 1.89 | 9 |
| 184 | Ryan Petersen Founder & CEO, Flexport | 1.87 | 47 |
| 185 | Arthur Mensch Co-Founder & CEO, Mistral AI | 1.83 | 6 |
| 186 | Jimmy Donaldson Founder and CEO, Beast Industries | 1.81 | 27 |
| 187 | Phil Deutsch Founder & Managing Partner, NGP Energy Technology Partners | 1.8 | 5 |
| 188 | Colin Rosenblum Co-Host, The Colin and Samir Show | 1.8 | 5 |
| 189 | Samir Chaudry Co-Host & Co-Founder, Colin and Samir | 1.8 | 5 |
| 190 | Mati Staniszewski Co-founder & CEO, ElevenLabs | 1.79 | 14 |
| 191 | Chase Lochmiller Co-Founder & CEO, Crusoe | 1.77 | 26 |
| 192 | Molly Bloom Author, Molly's Game | 1.76 | 17 |
| 193 | Adam Goldstein Founder & CEO, Archer Aviation | 1.74 | 31 |
| 194 | Alexandra Botez Co-founder & Content Creator, BotezLive | 1.69 | 13 |
| 195 | Alex Filippenko Professor of Astronomy, UC Berkeley | 1.67 | 6 |
| 196 | Caleb Ward Co-founder and CEO, Curious Refuge | 1.67 | 6 |
| 197 | Michael Dell Founder, Chairman & CEO, Dell Technologies | 1.62 | 13 |
| 198 | Neal Mohan CEO, YouTube | 1.58 | 12 |
| 199 | Keller Rinaudo Cliffton Co-Founder & CEO, Zipline | 1.56 | 18 |
| 200 | Anton Osika Co-Founder & CEO, Lovable | 1.44 | 9 |
| 201 | Vib Altakar Co-Founder & CTO, Saronic Technologies | 1.4 | 5 |
| 202 | Claire Cormier Thielke Global Head of Product Development, Prologis | 1.3 | 10 |
| 203 | Woody Hoburg Astronaut, NASA | 1.08 | 12 |
Companies
The most bearish calls
Debate potential is an AI score of how much a statement invites disagreement. Bearish counts tally what was said about a company on the show; they describe the conversation, not the company. Every count opens to the exact tape. full disclaimer →
All 564 companies, funds and products with at least one bearish claim on the record.
Highest debate potential, by year
2026
Rogers: US sanctioned former EU official over Elon Musk enforcement threat
“We recently issued some sanctions, which we'll get into, and one of the individuals we sanctioned, ah, was a former EU official who threatened Elon Musk with enforcement action because X within the United States had said that it was going to host on a live, ah…”
Chamath: Warren Buffett generated zero alpha after Regulation FD was enacted
“His returns were double the market returns when this kind of information sharing was legal. And the minute that it became illegal and you had to basically act on the same edge as everybody else, his returns went to the market return. He generated zero alpha.”
2025
2024
2023
2022
Palihapitiya: Human rights abuses against Uyghurs are below his line of concern
“Nobody cares about what's happening to the weakers. Okay. You bring it up because you really care. The rest of us don't care. I'm just telling you a very hard, I'm telling you a very hard, ugly truth. Okay. Of all the things that I care about. Yes, it is below…”
2021
2020
Chamath: The Eurozone will collapse and Japan is finished
“The Eurozone is going to collapse. Okay. Japan is finished.”
Friedberg: US West Coast will reopen for business around April 7th or 8th
“New York is going to be fucked for a little while, but I do think that the west coast and with some travel restrictions is going to be able to reopen for business probably around April seventh or eighth, because we're going to see a dramatic decline at that po…”