The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Yakovenko: The internet will hold the most US Treasuries within five years
“I think within five years, the internet is going to be the largest holder of US treasuries.”
Ray Dalio predicts the Federal Reserve will re-expand its balance sheet
“I think that it's likely down the road.”
Adena Friedman: High U.S. national debt is starting to impact markets
“The amount of debt that we have in the country is something that is, we're starting to see manifest itself in the markets, and we'll make it so that they look for alternatives if they feel like the return characteristics of a treasury are different than what t…”
Bo Hines: Tether will be the fourth largest US Treasuries purchaser in 2025
“This year, they'll be the fourth largest purchaser of US treasuries.”
Chamath: Yen carry trade unwind will prompt $1T+ US Treasury selloff, pushing yields higher
“When that trade unwinds, what you're going to have are net sellers of up to, as Freebrooke said, a trillion plus dollars of US treasuries. What will that do? It will further exacerbate the market's reluctance to own US treasuries, which means yields go even hi…”
Friedberg: 5% yield U.S. Treasuries are a good buy if DOGE cuts spending
“Yeah, and you know, it's a good time to buy U.S. Treasuries then. Yeah. I think a lot of the trade in Treasuries has been on the expectation that U.S. Debt levels and deficit levels will continue to climb, and we're not going to get out of the, you know, the s…”
Friedberg: Stanley Druckenmiller made the best trade of 2024 shorting Treasuries
“I just gave the best investor to the best public trade of the year, which was Druckenmiller, when he shorted treasuries. Told everyone inflation is not under control yet. We still have a ways to go. No one was listening. He shorted treasuries. We don't know wh…”
Friedberg: China publicly declared it is selling US Treasuries for gold
“They have publicly declared that they are selling off US treasuries and buying gold instead.”
Sacks: Stan Druckenmiller holds 20% short position in US Treasuries
“Another financial legend, Stan Druckenmiller. Gave an interview where he has something like a 20% short position, meaning 20% of his holdings are short US treasuries right now.”
Armstrong: GENIUS Act requires US-regulated stablecoins to hold 100% Treasury reserves
“Under the Genius Act that got passed into law last year, US regulated stable coins have to have 100% of the assets stored in short term US treasuries.”
Friedberg: Foreign holdings of US Treasuries dropped from 34% over ten years
“In the last 10 years, U.S. Treasuries held by foreign holders has declined from 34%.”
Chamath: U.S. stablecoins create structural demand for U.S. Treasuries
“The thing that US dollar stablecoins does is it starts to replicate one of those advantages, which again, if you think about having a release valve for the US economy, and if we needed to, all of a sudden scream to 200% debt to GDP. The real question is, where…”