The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13,205 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 498 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Altman: Unreleased OpenAI model used zero-day exploits to breach Hugging Face
“We were evaluating one of our unreleased models and it figured out that it could basically cheat on the test by chaining together multiple zero day exploits to break out of the sandbox, get access to the internet, and then break through multiple systems on the…”
Børnich: Robotics 'hard takeoff' with autonomous self-replication is under a decade away
“I am extremely sure that we're less than a decade away from hard takeoff. And when I say hard takeoff, I mean robots building the robots, the data centers, the chip fabs, Doing the mining and refining, actually a true abundance of labor, a self-sufficient syst…”
Sacks: Anthropic on track to become history's most powerful monopoly
“I'm saying something else, which is that unless something about their current trajectory changes, Anthropic will be the most powerful monopoly ever created in human history.”
Chamath: Warren Buffett generated zero alpha after Regulation FD was enacted
“His returns were double the market returns when this kind of information sharing was legal. And the minute that it became illegal and you had to basically act on the same edge as everybody else, his returns went to the market return. He generated zero alpha.”
Rogers: US sanctioned former EU official over Elon Musk enforcement threat
“We recently issued some sanctions, which we'll get into, and one of the individuals we sanctioned, ah, was a former EU official who threatened Elon Musk with enforcement action because X within the United States had said that it was going to host on a live, ah…”
Shirley: Entitlement fraud money in Minnesota is funding Al-Shabaab terrorists
“And so like the rumors of them funding Al-Shabaab, they're real, because they've been able to funnel all this money.”
Botha: Broadly investing in venture capital is 'return-free risk'
“So in my opinion, investing in venture is a return free risk.”
Gabbard: Declassified documents prove intelligence on Russiagate was intentionally manipulated
“The documents that we uncovered declassified and released that shows how intelligence and information can be actually manipulated intentionally so that it shows something that is not reflective of the truth at all.”
Gabbard: Obama explicitly tasked intelligence to show how Russia meddled, not whether
“Said this is a POTUS tasking on Russia meddling with the election. And what you'll see in those documents was not President Obama asking, ah, look into the intelligence and see if Russia meddled the election. It was, Provide me with an assessment saying how Ru…”
Gabbard: FBI knowingly used false information to secure FISA warrants on Trump
“We're dealing with a very highly politicized FBI at the time that was so politicized, they were willing to use what they knew was false information to obtain illegal surveillance warrants from the FISA court to spy on Members of the Trump administration, when …”
Karp: Israel's civilian casualty ratio is the best in human history
“It's true Israel's ratio of like, casualty, innocent to non-innocent is better than anyone else ever had in the history of humanity, and it's gonna have to be better.”
Tucker Carlson calls for an immediate ban on SSRIs
“The whole country is addled on drugs, and it's changing the nature of people, and making them into something that is less than people, and it should be banned immediately.”
Chris Wright: Climate change is not a top 10 global problem
“But if you look at the math and the economics of it, it's just not even close to top 10 problem in the world today.”
Huang calls President Trump America's unique competitive advantage over other countries
“America's unique advantage that no country possibly have is President Trump.”
Robbins claims COVID-19 vaccines and infection cause turbo cancers in youth
“After COVID and the injections, a lot of young people, these turbo cancers that are happening, because their immune systems have been harmed, and so now everything starts to shake up.”
Summers: Major firms and universities report Godfather-like extortion from Trump administration
“I can assure you that your experience is not the experience of quite a number of the nation's major law firms. It is not the experience of quite a number of the nation's business leaders. It is not the experience of quite a number of the nation's universities …”
Gracias: DOGE found thousands of non-citizens on voter rolls in four states
“We looked at the voter rolls. We found these people, thousands of them on the voter rolls, and we found many of those people had voted, right? In one state in particular, well over a thousand voted.”
Calacanis predicts OpenAI will lose its lead and become fourth-ranked AI player
“My most contrarian belief was OpenAI loses its lead, loses its nonprofit to for-profit transition and becomes the number four player in AI. The total collapse of OpenAI is my most contrarian prediction for .”
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts global software TAM will shrink to $500 billion
“I, I'm pretty sure that the market here shrinks by an order of magnitude, and instead of fighting over five trillion, I think we'll be fighting over Five hundred billion.”
Chamath: Democrats will lose California or New York within eight years
“I completely agree with you, and I'll go even further, which is, I think that the Democrats will lose one of California or New York in the next eight years.”
Thiel claims Kamala Harris will win a close election by cheating
“If it's like going to be a razor thin close election, then I'm pretty sure Kamala will win because they will cheat. They will fortify it. They will steal the ballots.”
Thiel: Defending Taiwan is not worth risking World War III
“It's not worth it's not worth World War III. And I still think it's quite catastrophic if it if it gets taken over by the communists.”
Vance says he would have requested alternative elector slates on Jan 6
“I would have asked the states to submit alternative slates of electors and let the country have the debate about what actually matters and what kind of an election that we have in these important states.”
Eric Schmidt: Google prioritized work-life balance over winning
“Google decided that work-life balance and going home early and working from home was more important than winning.”
Sacks: Reid Hoffman told Peter Thiel he wished Trump was a martyr
“Just days before the shooting, Peter Thiel and Reid Hoffman had an exchange at Allen and company that was publicly reported. In which Peter said that Reed had turned Trump into a martyr by funding lawfare, and Reed responded, I wish I had turned him into an ac…”
Trump pledges to eliminate the federal Department of Education
“We are going to close up education. We'll have a tiny little group to make sure everyone's teaching at least English. And perhaps proper math, et cetera, but very little. Department of Education goes, and education goes back to the states, and where it belongs…”
Sacks: Blinken told Russia US wanted Ukraine in NATO with nuclear weapons
“And you know, it turns out that the month before the Russians invaded, Blinken told Lavrov that the administration was not only going to bring Ukraine into NATO, but that they thought it was okay for the United States to put nuclear weapons in Ukraine.”
Sandberg: October 7 sexual violence was systematic and pre-planned
“The sexual violence was multiple locations, systematic, meets the definition of a war crime, a crime against humanity, and was part of the plan.”
Sacks: Re-electing Biden presents a serious risk of World War III
“I mean, what we're really talking about here is World War III. So if you want to have a serious chance of World War III in the next four years, then I would say go ahead and vote for Biden in November.”
Tucker Carlson claims US policy actively replaces native-born Americans with immigrants
“At exactly the moment when native-born Americans' birth rates are tanking, over a 100,000 people die of fentanyl ODs, and we're pushing euthanasia on the population, which we are, you're, you basically, you're saying, I've given up on the people who live here,…”
Phillips predicts Biden is the only Democrat who will lose to Trump
“And I have to say, I think it's fair to say too he's probably the only Democrat who could and will lose to Donald Trump in 2024.”
Ramaswamy: U.S. should defend Taiwan only until achieving semiconductor independence
“I would at least until the US has achieved semiconductor independence.”
Vivek Ramaswamy pledges to pardon Julian Assange and Edward Snowden
“I would pardon Julian Assange. I would pardon Edward Snowden. I've committed to a long list of pardons of people who have taken steps to expose corruption that we otherwise would not have seen in this country.”
Sacks: COVID-19 patient zero was a Wuhan lab gain-of-function researcher
“Patient zero, it turns out was a researcher at the Wuhan lab. Who was performing gain of function research?”
RFK Jr.: Vaccines are exempt from pre-licensure placebo-controlled trials
“Vaccines are the one medical product that does not have to go through placebo-controlled trials where you test an exposed versus unexposed population prior to licensure”
Sacks: The US destroyed Nord Stream and shifted Europe to American gas
“We've prevented Russia from taking over Ukraine. We've prevented, we've basically shifted Europe onto American natural gas. We've destroyed Nord Stream. I think we're close to achieving our major objectives.”
Musk: Almost every conspiracy theory about Twitter turned out true
“Almost every conspiracy theory that people had about Twitter turned out to be true. So far, they've all turned out to be true, and if not, more true than people thought.”
Palihapitiya: Human rights abuses against Uyghurs are below his line of concern
“Nobody cares about what's happening to the weakers. Okay. You bring it up because you really care. The rest of us don't care. I'm just telling you a very hard, I'm telling you a very hard, ugly truth. Okay. Of all the things that I care about. Yes, it is below…”
Sacks: US must plan to sabotage Taiwanese chip factories if invaded
“Our military needs to have a plan to sabotage those chip factories, because we can't let them fall under the control of the CCP.”
Chamath: It's 'pretty clear' COVID-19 leaked from the Wuhan lab
“It's pretty clear that this was something that leaked out of that lab.”
Tenev: Robinhood was not pressured by outside forces to halt trading
“This wasn't, you know, a value judgment or some kind of moral stance and we weren't pressured into doing it by anything other than our regulatory deposit requirements.”
Chamath: Robinhood was insolvent and lacked capital during GameStop halt
“This company was insolvent. They did not have the capital requirements to post the margin that was being asked of them by their partners.”
Chamath: The Eurozone will collapse and Japan is finished
“The Eurozone is going to collapse. Okay. Japan is finished.”
Weinstein: Susskind, Gross, and Witten halted theoretical physics progress after 1983
“In 1983, physics made sense, in 1984, it did not. It was very stark, and it was like overnight, more or less three people, Leonard Susskind, David Grose, and Edward Whitten, drove the field in a totally different direction, and now the achievement of this has …”