JD Vance
Vice President, United States · 3 appearances on the record.
computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →
politicianauthorinvestor@jdvance1 ↗jdvance.com ↗Wikipedia ↗Instagram ↗
He serves as the 50th Vice President of the United States after previously serving as a U.S. Senator from Ohio from 2023 to 2025. He first rose to national prominence as the author of the bestselling 2016 memoir Hillbilly Elegy and worked in venture capital with firms including Mithril Capital and Narya Capital.
35statements → 15claims → 12claims resolved → 17%fully supported → 3.69/5average certainty → 3.34/5average debate potential → ≈4.0/5argument clarity, estimated → 272said about them ↓
2 supported 6 partly supported 4 contradicted 3 not checkable as stated how the 15 claims stand · each chip opens the sources
3 predictions · 12 assertions · 14 opinions · 1 insight · 4 disclosures · 1 what if · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 15 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 12 are resolved, and 3 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.
The record, in short
What the tape says about how JD argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.
Their most notable supported claim
Expressed certainty vs assessment result
weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet
How they sound: speaking style how? →
276 words/min while actually speaking · 4.2 um and uh per 1k words
No argument clarity score for JD Vance: only 7 usable question→answer exchanges on raw tape (a fair score needs 8+). We do not score a sample that small. Roundtable and news formats yield far fewer direct exchanges than interviews. Their coarse estimate from 7 raw tape exchanges is ≈4.0/5, shown at half point precision because the sample is small.
Measured by listening to the audio itself: 10,203 words across 2 episodes of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →
Everything JD Vance said on All-In that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →
Vance says he would have requested alternative elector slates on Jan 6
“I would have asked the states to submit alternative slates of electors and let the country have the debate about what actually matters and what kind of an election that we have in these important states.”
Vance: Media fabricated claim that Trump called white supremacists fine people
“Donald Trump never called white supremacists very fine people after Charlottesville, a total fabrication of the American media”
Vance predicts US will see net negative immigration in 2025
“I think in 2025, we will have the first net negative immigration number in about 50 or 60 years in the United States”
Vance: Trump administration will not offer legal amnesty to undocumented immigrants
“What the president has said is, number one, we're not going to do amnesty in this country.”
Vance: Growing the U.S. economy via cheap imported labor is a dead end
“When we try to grow our economy, frankly, through importing cheap labor, that I think is a dead end.”
Vance: The US university system is broken for enforcing conventional thinking
“If you as a college are actually promoting social, conventional thinking, then you're not serving your fundamental purpose, and I think the entire university system in this country is broken because of that fact.”
Vance: GOP establishment opposes Trump over foreign policy, not January 6
“Fundamentally the reason the old guard of the Republican Party hates Donald Trump, it's not because of January the sixth, twenty-twenty-one, whatever your views on it, it's because Donald Trump doesn't think that we should start stupid wars in foreign countrie…”
Vance: US could cut defense budget if procurement is made more efficient
“I actually do think you could cut the American defense budget and make our country stronger, but you would have to make the procurement process much more efficient.”
Vance: Joint Chiefs disobeyed Trump on Syria troop redeployments
“The Joint Chiefs of Staff Didn't obey the president of the United States on troop redeployments in Syria, which actually happened during Trump's administration.”
Vance: Biden and Harris opened southern border via executive orders
“One of the ways that, that that Biden and Harris opened up the American Southern border was through executive orders, right? It was an executive order that submitted deportations, an executive order that ended the remain in Mexico policy.”
Vance: Big Tech favors Democrats while Little Tech startups lean Republican
“Big tech has become increasingly pro-Democrat. Little tech has become increasingly pro-Republican, right? So if you're an upstart, if you're in crypto, if you're like a small AI company, I think you're much more likely to be pro-Republican. If you're a monopol…”
Vance: Lina Khan is right that Big Tech is an oligarchic threat
“What Lena Kahn fundamentally gets correct is that big tech really is a threat. It's a threat to free speech, it's increasingly oligarchic, it controls too much of what we're allowed to say, and also, It controls a lot of the ways in which capital gets invested…”
Vance claims there are 25 million illegal immigrants in the US
“Because you have twenty-five million illegal aliens in this country, and you like, you can't fix what I would call the minor or sort of less important immigration question until you fix the real problem.”
Vance worries about military-age Iranian males entering via southern border
“Given what's going on in the Middle East, I do worry about military-age males from Iran coming into this country through the southern border.”
Vance: Claiming the iPhone is designed in Cupertino is increasingly untrue
“That the idea that the iPhone is designed in Cupertino is increasingly no longer even true, right? It's something that we lie to ourselves about because the people who are doing all the manufacturing of the hardware of the iPhone are getting much better at des…”
Vance: China is the only foreign tech industry competing with US AI
“When you look at their technology industry, I think that's the only tech industry, especially when it comes to things like AI, where they're even sort of knocking on the door of America.”
Vance: Foreign leader proposed non-European NATO alternative using US tech stack
“A foreign leader came to me relatively recently, this is actually last week small country, but very important country strategically, very good ally of the United States, and basically pitched me On creating a NATO alternative outside of Europe, but where count…”
JD Vance: US employment rate for college-educated STEM graduates is declining
“The college-educated employment rate for STEM graduates in this country seems to be declining.”
Vance: Low GDP growth drives political dysfunction in the US
“When the economy is growing four, five, six percent a year, then Democrats can kind of get what they want, Republicans can kind of get what they want, and it all makes sense. If the economy is growing between zero and one percent a year, then I think it makes …”
Vance: Worker wage growth outpaced corporate profits and government under Trump
“For pretty much my entire life, the wages of workers were stagnant, corporate profits were going up, and the size of government was going up. And there was a four-year period where the wages of workers outpaced the size of government and corporate profits. It'…”
Vance: Wealth distribution flipped from 80% Republican to 70% Democratic counties
“You go back even 30 years ago, and approximately 80% of the counties That represented, sorry, 80% of the wealth in American counties went in places that voted Republican, and about 20% of the wealth went to places that voted Democrat. Now it's 70% of the wealt…”
Vance: Wall Street shifted from 3-to-1 Republican to 9-to-1 Democrat
“I believe that in 2012, Wall Street, which I think Wall Street fundamentally has been the main beneficiary of globalization, of a lot of the policies that I pushed back against and criticized over the last 30 years, Wall Street went three to one for Romney ove…”
Vance: Lina Khan's broad anti-M&A stance hurts small tech and venture capital
“Where I think Lena Kahn goes wrong is that you're exactly right. Like, you need the singles and doubles. You need sometimes a medium-sized company to buy a smaller company for three hundred million dollars, right? That liquidates founders. That gives the ventu…”
Vance: Massively reducing regulation could add 1.5 to 3 points to US GDP growth
“I don't know that it's, I don't know how easy it is to get another 300 bips of growth, but I think you could get a lot more growth, whether it's 300 or one 50, just by massively reducing the amount of regulatory burden in the real economy.”
The other half of the tape: JD Vance's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 254 times in 57 episodes on All-In. 18 statements on the record name them. every mention, with the transcript →
Who brings them up most Jason Calacanis 153David Sacks 35Chamath Palihapitiya 14David Friedberg 10Ben Shapiro 6Mark Cuban 5Andrew Schulz 5Scott Bessent 3
Statements about JD Vance, by other people (18)
Chamath Palihapitiya compares JD Vance's tech speech with Kamala Harris's performance
“I think that JD was focused, he was precise, he was ambitious, and even the part of the press that was very supportive of Kamala couldn't find a lot of very positive things to say about her, and the feedback was It was meandering. She was ducking questions. Sh…”
Friedberg predicts pro-war neoconservatives will lose influence to Vance and Musk
“I'm going to predict the pro war neocons who are going to go Head to head with the JD Vance and Elons and others of the world, and I think that they're gonna lose, and I think that there's gonna be this kind of big crack in the establishment of this neocon mov…”
Chamath predicts JD Vance will lead the post-Trump Republican Party
“My political surprise is J.D. Vance. I don't think if this works out properly there will be a Republican party the way that you normally knew it. I think it is a MAGA party. And I think that JD Vance has the potential to become the standard bearer past Trump, …”
Sacks: Persuadable voters without TDS do not care about election certification
“No one who is persuadable, who doesn't have TDS cares about that topic anymore.”
Thiel confirms he will not donate money in the 2024 election
“I am still Very strongly pro-Trump, pro pro-JD. I've decided not to donate any money politically, but I'm supporting them in every other way every other way possible.”
Sacks: Neoconservatism is losing out to populism in the Republican Party
“I would already say that Fox News has a market position problem, which is that Ruber is very much a neocon and neoconservatism is on the way out in the Republican party in favor of a more populist conservatism that you see with Trump or now his running mate JD…”
Sacks: Vance selection guarantees MAGA platform continues for years
“It was a legacy pick because it means that this America first MAGA message Is gonna continue into the future, many years into the future.”
Carolla predicts Trump economic gains will deliver a conservative 2028 victory
“I think Trump's fiscal stuff is going to kick in in the new year, and I think people are going to start reaping the benefits of that, and I think if that happens, and gas is cheap, and interest rates are down, and home ownership is up, and employment is up, th…”
Calacanis: Vance's youth and debate willingness make him the ideal politician
“I'm in like with Trump. I'm in love with JD because he's young, he's opinionated, and he likes to mix it up.”
Schulz: JD Vance has high emotional intelligence and political ambition
“If you want to talk about like power plays, you got to watch out for JD. That guy's a, that guy's high emotional intelligence.”
Akash Singh: J.D. Vance lacks public charisma
“Yeah, J.D. Vance, I don't think is like, I just, to me, he doesn't have any charisma, really. I'm not grabbed by him when he talks.”
Sinema: JD Vance is unbothered by disagreements on policy issues
“What I really appreciate about JD is that it doesn't bother him that we don't agree on everything.”
Calacanis: Thiel made record $15M Senate campaign donation for Vance
“Teal backed him with, I think, the largest Senate race donation in history, fifteen million.”
David Sacks says working-class populism represents the future of the Republican Party
“The reason why I support JD and Blake for that matter is they are, they represent this more populist, working class wing of the Republican Party, and they're dragging the Republican Party in a more working class direction. I think that's the future of the part…”
David Sacks predicts JD Vance election win amid November 2022 red wave
“JD's already won the primaries and I expect he will win. I mean, it's gonna be, I think a red wave in November and Ohio is a pretty red state these days.”
Every mention by year
tap a year for its mentions
2026 11 mentions in 6 episodes 2 per episode
- All-In's 2026 Predictions
- AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
- Iran's Breaking Point, Trump's Greenland Acquisition, and Solving Energy Costs
- Mark Cuban on the AI Bubble: Who Actually Gets Wiped Out?
- The State of Modern War: Palantir & Anduril Execs on Drones, AI, and the End of Traditional Warfare
- Adam Carolla on California’s Collapse: Fires, Failed Leadership, and Gyno-Fascism
- every mention in 2026, scene by scene →
2025 104 mentions in 26 episodes 4 per episode
- JD Vance's AI Speech, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers, Tariffs, AI Court Cases with Naval Ravikant
- Trump AI Speech & Action Plan, DC Summit Recap, Hot GDP Print, Trade Deals, Altman Warns No Privacy
- AI Bubble Pops, Zuck Freezes Hiring, Newsom’s 2028 Surge, Russia/Ukraine Endgame
- Senator Eric Schmitt: Exposing the Biggest Censorship Scandal in US History
- DOGE updates + Liberation Day Tariff Reactions with Ben Shapiro and Antonio Gracias
- Fixing the American Dream with Andrew Schulz
- Big Beautiful Bill, Elon/Trump, Dollar Down Big, Harvard's Money Problems, Figma IPO
- Howard Lutnick | All-In DC
- 18 more episodes that year, every mention in 2025 →
2024 135 mentions in 22 episodes 6 per episode
- Trump assassination attempt, Secret Service failure, Inside the RNC, VC liquidity problem
- Senator Kyrsten Sinema | All-In Summit 2024
- Massive jobs revision, Kamala wealth tax, polls vs prediction markets, end of race-based admissions
- Dueling Presidential interviews, SpaceX’s big catch, Robotaxis, Uber buying Expedia?, Nuclear NIMBY
- 2024 Election Night Livestream with the Besties!
- The All-In Holiday Spectacular
- Trump wins! How it happened and what's next
- Mark Cuban: Love/Hate Relationship with Trump, Why He's Backing Kamala Harris
- 14 more episodes that year, every mention in 2024 →
2022 4 mentions in 3 episodes 1 per episode
- E104: FTX collapse with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong + election results, macro update & more
- E88: First principle politics, China chaos & outlook, state of private/public markets & more
- #AIS: Antonio Garcia Martinez & Glenn Greenwald debate Ukraine, moderated by David Sacks
- every mention in 2022, scene by scene →
Appearances (3)
| Episode | Date | Speaking time |
|---|---|---|
| Winning the AI Race Part 2: Vice President JD Vance | Jul 23, 2025 | 17m |
| Inside the All-In Summit: Behind the Scenes of the World's Greatest Conference 🚀 | Apr 24, 2025 | 19s |
| JD Vance | All-In Summit 2024 | Sep 10, 2024 | 26m |
Played on the show (1)
Episodes where a recording of JD Vance was played rather than JD taking part, or where the tape carries an address with nobody putting questions to them. Listed because the words are on the record, kept out of every score on this page because they were not said on this show. We read this off the tape: who was spoken to, who was asked something, who answered whom.
| Episode | Date | On tape | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| All-In Inauguration Day Livestream with the Besties from Washington, DC! | Jan 20, 2025 | 1s | clip played |