Venture capital, startups and investing, on tape.

Every prediction, opinion and bold claim from the All-In Podcast: extracted from the transcript, verified against the tape, checked against cited public sources, playable at the exact moment it was said.

5,135 assertions3,504 predictions1,958 opinions1,264 disclosures1,143 insights201 what-ifs

Recently on the ledger full ledger →

Assertion Supported
Altman: Unreleased OpenAI model used zero-day exploits to breach Hugging Face
“We were evaluating one of our unreleased models and it figured out that it could basically cheat on the test by chaining together multiple zero day exploits to break out of the sandbox, get access to the internet, and then break through multiple systems on the…”
Sam Altman Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 35:51 Chip Stocks Crash, $20B Fund Margin Called, Frontier Labs: SLOW DOWN AI, Mamdani's Grocery Stores
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Børnich: Robotics 'hard takeoff' with autonomous self-replication is under a decade away
“I am extremely sure that we're less than a decade away from hard takeoff. And when I say hard takeoff, I mean robots building the robots, the data centers, the chip fabs, Doing the mining and refining, actually a true abundance of labor, a self-sufficient syst…”
Bernt Børnich Jul 29, 2026 ▶ 31:05 The $1/Hour Robot Is Coming: Four Industry Leaders Explain What’s Next
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Friedberg predicts AOC will be elected US President
“So I predict AOC will be president.”
David Friedberg Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 1:28:45 AI Sovereignty Wars, Palantir-Nvidia Deal, SCOTUS Birthright Ruling, Newsom’s CA Budget Lie
Assertion Partly supported
Chamath: Warren Buffett generated zero alpha after Regulation FD was enacted
“His returns were double the market returns when this kind of information sharing was legal. And the minute that it became illegal and you had to basically act on the same edge as everybody else, his returns went to the market return. He generated zero alpha.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 13, 2026 ▶ 26:35 Debt Spiral or NEW Golden Age? Super Bowl Insider Trading, Booming Token Budgets, Ferrari's New EV
Assertion Supported
Rogers: US sanctioned former EU official over Elon Musk enforcement threat
“We recently issued some sanctions, which we'll get into, and one of the individuals we sanctioned, ah, was a former EU official who threatened Elon Musk with enforcement action because X within the United States had said that it was going to host on a live, ah…”
Sarah B. Rogers Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 7:18 Europe's Free Speech Failure and the "Censorship Industrial Complex" with Sarah B. Rogers
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Shirley: Entitlement fraud money in Minnesota is funding Al-Shabaab terrorists
“And so like the rumors of them funding Al-Shabaab, they're real, because they've been able to funnel all this money.”
Nick Shirley Dec 31, 2025 ▶ 39:10 Massive Somali Fraud in Minnesota with Nick Shirley, California Asset Seizure, $20B Groq-Nvidia Deal

How the calls resolved the full record →

Assertion Supported
US government requested 36-month prison sentence for CZ
“And then a week before that is when both sides submit their requests, the government requests for 36 months, which is twice the maximum sentencing guideline for the worst case scenario for me.”
Changpeng Zhao (CZ) Feb 10, 2026 ▶ 1:22:57 Binance CEO: 4 Months in Prison, $4 Billion Fine, and What Comes Next
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Carlson: Gavin Newsom will be 2024 Democratic nominee if Biden steps down
“Oh, it's Gavin. Gavin. It's Gavin, for sure.”
Tucker Carlson Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 1:05:27 Tucker Carlson: State of America, leaving Fox News, Media Control, Politics, and more
Assertion Supported
Rogers: UK sentenced a mother to 31 months for anti-migration tweet
“There was a thirty-one-month sentence handed down to a suburban mother named Lucy Connolly in the UK because after a man called Axel Rudabanka stabbed, I think it was a seven-year-old girl, an eight-year-old girl, and a nine-year-old girl at a birthday party, …”
Sarah B. Rogers Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 14:10 Europe's Free Speech Failure and the "Censorship Industrial Complex" with Sarah B. Rogers
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath predicts neither Biden nor Trump will run for president in 2024
“Zero and zero.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Oct 23, 2021 ▶ 32:48 E52: Trump's SPAC, peak venture liquidity, tech as an economic ladder, Dems overplaying their hand

Open predictions the full timeline →

9days Chamath: Tesla Model Y Performance price will drop to $40,000 soon Chamath Palihapitiya · prediction date: 2026-09-22 25days Baker: xAI will release Grok 4.7 in a few weeks Gavin Baker · prediction date: 2026-10-08 49days Sacks: All frontier AI models will reach Mythos-level cyber capabilities in six months David Sacks · prediction date: 2026-11-01 51days Calacanis: Republicans are on track to lose the midterm elections Jason Calacanis · prediction date: 2026-11-03

Track records all people →

Ordered by full support rate, then by supported count. Minimum three resolved. Partly supported claims count as resolved but not as fully supported, same as everywhere on the ledger.

PersonEpsStatementsSupportedPartly supportedContradictedFull support rate
Dara Khosrowshahi 1 19 7 0 0 100%
Demis Hassabis 1 24 7 0 0 100%
Sundar Pichai 1 25 5 0 0 100%
Eric Weinstein 1 24 5 0 0 100%
Sam Altman 7 40 4 0 0 100%
John Martinis 1 10 3 0 0 100%
Sergey Brin 3 32 3 0 0 100%
John Mearsheimer 3 18 3 0 0 100%

From the Wisdom Wall all quotes →

“Now there's three strategies. One is the economic quarantine that just suffocates Taiwan. One is an invasion that tries to end this in 96 hours, and the other one is they take over those three islands…”

“You know when kids drop out of college, David? Third grade. That's when they start dropping out, and when you have 50% of your kids not reading at grade level, college cost is not your problem.”

“if you get the robot to be similar enough to a human, Then you can train on all the available video data out there of humans.”

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