why aren't all 19 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Chinese autonomous vehicle developers take safety as seriously as Western firms
“They take safety just as seriously as the Western companies do, so I think their safety record is excellent.”
Assertion Supported
Tesla's camera-only autonomy strategy trades hardware savings for software difficulty
“Elon is doing camera only. Tougher on the software, cheaper for the hardware, ok?”
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2035
Financial firms will own large autonomous vehicle fleets within ten years
“10 years down the line, you know, there are these things called REITs, real estate investment trucks. You're going to have fleets. You're going to have financial owners that own big fleets of cars that are on our network, maybe on other networks.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Austin Uber drivers earn as much or more following Waymo's local launch
“Austin drivers now are making as much or more money than they were before we introduced Waymo.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2032
Uber expects to employ more human drivers in five to seven years
“So I think for the next five to seven years, we're going to have more human drivers and delivery people just because we're going so quickly.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Autonomous vehicle job displacement will become a real issue in 10-15 years
“But I think, you know, 10 to 15 years from now, this is going to be a real issue.”
Assertion Supported
Uber is partnered with Chinese autonomous operators Baidu, WeRide, and Pony
“So there are Baidu WeRide, Pony are all on the road today, no safety driver. We are partners with all of them.”
Disclosure
Uber requires autonomous vehicle partners to be multiple times safer than humans
“Our different definition of safety is multiple times safer than a human being, which is achievable.”
Assertion Supported
Solid-state LiDAR costs have dropped from $20,000 to $300-$500 per unit
“LiDAR was 20, 30,000 bucks a pop like five, six years ago. Now solid state LiDAR is 300 to 500 bucks a pop.”
Disclosure
Uber will temporarily use its balance sheet to finance autonomous vehicle fleets
“Between now and the end state, we will take balance sheet risk, because we can sign up. We know exactly how much revenue a car can produce in said market, because that, because cars are already producing revenue, so we can sign up for the revenue. We will prov…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Robots and drones could eventually cover over 50% of Uber's delivery market
“Those two together we think can cover 50 plus percent of our delivery TAM, so to speak.”
Assertion Supported
Tesla currently intends to launch its robotaxi network independently without Uber
“At this point they're looking to go it alone”
Assertion Supported
Uber generated over $8.5 billion in cash flow over the last year
“The past 12 months we've had over eight and a half billion of cash flow.”
Disclosure
Uber collaborates with ousted founder Travis Kalanick's CloudKitchens business
“So we're, we actually work with Travis and his cloud kitchens business.”
Disclosure
Uber has no plans to enter the food roboticization business
“And I think as the cost of labor is going up all of these businesses are building, are investing increasingly in robotic station. It's not something that we are getting into.”
Disclosure
Uber has over 20 autonomous technology partners across mobility and delivery
“So we have over 20 partners across both mobility and the delivery business.”
Assertion Supported
Waymo driverless rides are currently active on Uber in Austin and Atlanta
“Waymo, Waymo is working with us now in Austin and Atlanta. So in Austin and Atlanta, if you're using Uber, ah, you can be picked up, ah, with a Waymo.”
Disclosure
Uber is an investor in Joby Aviation and will deploy its eVTOLs
“We're an investor in Joby and we are going to work with them as those vehicles become available.”
Assertion Supported
Ridesharing currently accounts for only 1% to 2% of global rides
“A little more, but it's between one and two percent.”