Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already
assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger
checks it again against the public record.
9 days left 2026-09-22
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2026
Chamath: Tesla Model Y Performance price will drop to $40,000 soon
“And yeah, that'll be a 40,000 dollar car in the next three years.”
25 days left 2026-10-08
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2026
Baker: xAI will release Grok 4.7 in a few weeks
“And this is still a relatively small model. It's one .1 trillion parameter models. A larger model, Grok 4.7, that should be significantly more capable, is coming out, you know, in a few short weeks.”
49 days left 2026-11-01
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026
Sacks: All frontier AI models will reach Mythos-level cyber capabilities in six months
“In fact, within six months or so, all the frontier models are going to have mythos level cyber capability, but it's impressive that open AI got this GPT, 5.5 cyber out so quickly.”
51 days left 2026-11-03
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026
Calacanis: Republicans are on track to lose the midterm elections
“And I think they're going to lose the midterms as it stands right now. It looks like I think that's the consensus opinion and they haven't been able to do something with this affordability.”
51 days left 2026-11-03
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026
Calacanis: Democrats will sweep midterms if Iran conflict continues six months
“If this continues for another six months, it's basically going to result in the Democrats doing a clean sweep in the midterms.”
51 days left 2026-11-03
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026
Ray Dalio predicts Democrats will likely win the House midterm elections
“I think when we have, we're going to have the midterm elections, you're going to go past the midterm elections with probably that Democrats will take the house and be, and maybe, I don't know, it's going to be difficult. And you know what? Nobody can succeed b…”
51 days left 2026-11-03
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026
Calacanis predicts Donald Trump will lose the midterms
“I think Trump's gonna lose the midterms, and we're gonna get to more chaos again, and it, we might as well start this reconciliation process of these two sides stopping their law for against each other and working together for the American people on the import…”
51 days left 2026-11-03
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026
Nate Silver: Democrats have an 85% to 90% chance to take the House
“Prediction markets say Democrats are around, I think, 80 or 85% to take the House and 40 or 45% to take the Senate. Those both seem pretty reasonable to me. I think, if anything, it's a little bit low on the House. I think it might be more like 85 or 90.”
51 days left 2026-11-03
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026
Nate Silver: GOP has a slight edge to retain the Senate
“Whereas on the flip side, needing to pick up four Senate seats when you might blow the opportunity in Maine, it's a toss up probably, probably slight edge to the GOP with maybe gas prices and Iran determining whether it's more truly fifty-fifty or maybe, maybe…”
52 days left 2026-11-04
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026
Sacks Predicts Republicans Will Keep the Senate in 2026 Midterms
“I do think that the Democrats, I think it is legitimate to say that they are favored to win the house. I think the Senate right now is a toss up and I would say that the Republicans will ultimately keep it if I had to predict right now.”
56 days left 2026-11-08
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026
Sacks: Major frontier AI labs will have cyber capabilities within 3-6 months
“And within three to six months, all the major frontier labs and including Chinese models will have cyber capabilities.”
78 days left 2026-11-30
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026
Calacanis: ICE enforcement tactics will cost Republicans the midterms
“And in fact, it's gonna cause him to lose the second to lose the midterms.”
78 days left 2026-11-30
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2026
Brad Gerstner predicts three to four rate cuts and GDP reacceleration
“I actually think you are going to get three to four rate cuts. I actually think you are going to see a reacceleration of GDP.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Gerstner: Warsh will deliver more Fed rate cuts in 2026 than expected
“I happen to think that I would take the over on the number of rate cuts that Warsh is going to give us this year.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Adam Goldstein expects to fly in Archer's eVTOL aircraft in 2026
“Later this year, that'd be my guess.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Sacks predicts US GDP growth will reach 5% in 2026
“I'm gonna go for five percent. Within a rounding year, I believe five percent.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Chamath predicts US GDP growth will hit 5% to 6.2% in 2026
“I think the lower bound is five. I think the upper bound is six, two.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Friedberg predicts US GDP growth will reach 4.6% in 2026
“2026 growth? 4.6%.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Friedberg predicts the Russia-Ukraine war will settle in 2026
“Russia, Ukraine. I think it's going to settle out this year. I think there's a lot of motivating factors to get it settled out this year, economic and other political factors, but I do think it's going to settle out this year, and it's going to bring a bit mor…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Calacanis: Big Tech will make a $50B+ AI acquisition in 2026
“For twenty-twenty-six, I think we're going to see some massive M&A. It doesn't matter to me how it occurs, but I do think we're going to see a fifty billion plus deal, and I think it could be, ah, one of the Mac seven, an Apple, a Meta, a Microsoft, or an Amaz…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Sacks: AI will increase demand for knowledge workers, not decrease it
“AI will increase demand for knowledge workers, not decrease it.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Calacanis: US dollar will perform poorly in 2026 due to growing national debt
“I went with the U.S. Dollar in different permutations of how you can buy it because our debt continues to grow unabated and, you know. I just think it's gonna be hard for, you know, the USD because we're talking about, we've been adding, I think we're gonna ad…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Calacanis: At least two major tech unicorns will file IPOs in 2026
“Anticipate one of the following two will file. SpaceX, Android, Stripe, Anthropic, and OpenAI. I think two of those file, and it is going to be gangbusters.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Friedberg: Investigations will uncover trillions in fraudulent government spending by 2026
“I think that's gonna be the great uncovering of twenty-twenty-six is we're gonna see on the order of trillions of dollars.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Sacks predicts strong 2026 economic growth as interest rates fall
“I think we're headed for a gangbusters. 2026 rates are coming down.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Sacks: China will manufacture millions of AI chips by 2026
“By next year, China's gonna be making millions of chips.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Baker: Raising over $250B in U.S. tariffs in 2026 seems reasonable
“But for 2026, that does seem reasonable.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Musk predicts SpaceX will demonstrate full Starship reusability by 2026
“Unless we have some very major setbacks SpaceX will demonstrate full reusability next year catching both the booster and the ship and being able to deliver over a hundred tons to a useful orbit.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Palihapitiya: Fed will cut rates to 2-3% by end of 2026
“And why will they cut probably all the way down to two or three percent by the end of 26? It's because we now need to stimulate the economy.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Dell: Dell Technologies will generate $140B in revenue this year
“We'll have about a 140 billion in revenue this year”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Chamath: AI output token prices will fall 90% by end of 2026
“I think you're going to see a 10 axing in The demand for tokens, but I also think you're going to see a 90% price reduction in the cost of an output token, probably by the end of this year.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Chamath predicts most protested 2026 data center power capacity will be canceled
“You have about nine gigawatts that are supposed to come online this year. Almost 50% of it now is being protested. More than likely, if history holds, most of that will get turned off, so they will get even more supply constraint.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Sacks: Anthropic will reach $100B ARR by end of 2026
“I think it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that they will hit that forecast of Tenex this year, exiting the year, call it roughly a hundred billion of ARR, and now the only question is whether they hit a trillion in twenty-twenty-seven, and we can debate w…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
OpenAI aims to execute an IPO later in 2026
“OpenAI wants to IPO later this year.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Sacks projects Anthropic will reach 80 to 100 billion this year
“They're going to end this year. At 80 to a hundred billion, at least on the current trajectory.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Gerstner: Anthropic could hit $80B-$100B revenue run rate by year-end
“I would not be shocked if you see Anthropic exiting this year at 80 to a hundred billion dollars in revenue.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Benioff: Salesforce will reach over $46B revenue and $16B cash flow this year
“Look, we'll do over forty six billion this year, more than sixteen billion in cash flow.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Børnich: 1X will ship initial NEO humanoid robots in 2026
“So we will ship in twenty-twenty-six. Now, expectation managing here, it'll be slow in the beginning. We want to do it right. But there will be a handful of customers that get their NIO in twenty-twenty-six”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Hurst: Agility Robotics will release barrier-free Digit V5 this year
“And Digit V-Five, which is coming out later this year, is the first time that a humanoid robot, a robot which is balancing, can step out of a work cell and does not need a physical barrier between the robot and the person to maintain safety in this warehouse.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Sacks: OpenAI forecasts $75 billion in exit ARR by year-end
“I think they were expecting to end the year at sixty billion of ARR. And I think they're forecasting more like seventy five billion of exit ARR.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Gavin Baker: Anthropic will end the year with over $100B revenue
“They're going to end this year well over a hundred billion.”
113 days left 2027-01-04
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2027
Calacanis predicts the Magnificent Seven will be the best performing asset class
“I think the Mac seven is going to be the best performing asset. I'm taking the other side Chamath, I think in an earlier prediction said maybe not so much. I think that what they've learned in the last couple of years is that there is an incredible earnings ex…”
142 days left 2027-02-02
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2027
Palihapitiya: Congress likely to narrow Section 230 liability within 3 years
“I don't think that the Section two 30 rewrite is going to be broad and sweeping. What I noticed from a bipartisan perspective by both the Democrats and the Republicans is that the one single narrow issue that they all seem to align on is not necessarily about …”
183 days left 2027-03-15
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2027
Friedberg: Skin-cell IVF will allow people to produce offspring at any age
“So in the next couple of years, there's, you know, there's a few little technical breakthroughs that are happening right now that will enable this, where fertility clinics may end up just taking a little bit of your skin cell, creating stem cells, creating egg…”
223 days left 2027-04-24
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027
Calacanis: SpaceX, xAI, and Cursor will lead AI coding within 12 months
“If you put these two together, I predict that this is going to move Space X, X, X AI and cursor to the front of the coding leaderboard within 12 months.”
229 days left 2027-04-30
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027
Sarah Friar: OpenAI will unveil new hardware in 2026 and sell in 2027
“We're changing into a consumer substrate that I cannot tell you what it is, but by the end of this year, we will unveil it. Early next year we'll be able to buy it.”
260 days left 2027-05-31
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2027
Sacks: AI will not cause 20% unemployment in two years
“And so I just think this idea that boom, 20% of the workforce is going to be unemployed in two years. I just don't think that it's going to work that way.”
260 days left 2027-05-31
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2027
Litinsky predicts a major auto OEM will fail or need bailout by 2027
“I'll bet that in the next five years, we will see a major household name OEM fail or need a bailout due to not, you know, prices went up on them, but lack of access to a material, some kind of critical material.”
272 days left 2027-06-12
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2027
Samani: GEODNET revenue will more than triple in the next 12 months
“In terms of where the business at, the business just crossed about eleven million dollars in annualized run rate a few days ago. And it's growing more than three X year over year. I think it's gonna probably more than triple over the next 12 months.”
288 days left 2027-06-28
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2027
Friedberg: Human trials for stem cell age reversal will begin within years
“I think that we should expect over the next couple of years, these sorts of trials to kind of begin to see if we can see similar results.”
290 days left 2027-06-30
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2027
Chamath predicts Tesla and SpaceX will merge by mid-next year
“When Tesla and SpaceX merge and we have all things, Elon and Elon Corp. Okay. Which will happen. Probably by the end of the year, maybe it'll happen in the middle of next year.”
294 days left 2027-07-04
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2027
Gerstner: Trump Accounts Aims to Raise $100B in First 12 Months
“We told the president, we think we can raise a hundred billion dollars in the first 12 months.”
313 days left 2027-07-23
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2027
Feldman: Memory market will take 18 months to digest surge, keeping prices high
“And it will take us about 18 months to digest. The prices will stay high.”
313 days left 2027-07-23
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2027
Su: AI accelerator market will exceed $500B within a couple of years
“That just the accelerator market, so the chips for these you know, AI large computing systems will be like, you know, over five hundred billion dollars in a couple of years”
322 days left 2027-08-01
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Calacanis: Major AI copyright lawsuits will settle in 1-2 years
“Because there's some major lawsuits here. They're going to get settled in the next year or two.”
362 days left 2027-09-10
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2027
Musk predicts direct-to-cell Starlink smartphones will ship by 2027
“So the phones that are able to use the spectrum that was acquired probably start shipping in around two years.”
364 days left 2027-09-12
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2027
Palihapitiya: CIOs will be publicly fired within a year over AI data leaks
“Will a handful of CIOs get very publicly flogged and fired in the next year because they accidentally didn't understand this and just did an API deal because they wanted to feel popular and leaked data into these models? Guaranteed.”
372 days left 2027-09-20
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2027
Allison: 90% chance no US-China war in next four years
“So if you ask me bottom line quickly, a war between the US and China in the year ahead? No. I'll give you 99% of that one. War between the US and China the next four years? No. I'd say 90%. Ah, no.”
450 days left 2027-12-07
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Baker: Training a single AI model will cost $100B within three years
“It's going to cost a hundred billion dollars to train a model in two or three years which I think is a realistic estimate.”
474 days left 2027-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Lockmiller: Crusoe aims to energize an SMR-powered AI data center in 2027
“We're actually hoping to energize the first AI, AI factory powered by an SMR in twenty-twenty-seven.”
474 days left 2027-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Armstrong: New Limit's first drug candidate likely enters clinical trials next year
“And the first drug candidate is probably going to go into clinical trials next year.”
474 days left 2027-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Calacanis: Consumers will experience humanoid robotics in 2027
“I think consumers will be experiencing them in 27”
474 days left 2027-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Buttigieg: Most NEVI EV chargers will be installed in 2026 and 2027
“Most of the chargers would go in in 2026, 2027, but well ahead of 2030.”
474 days left 2027-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Gerstner: Nvidia will generate $450B in cash flow from 2025 to 2027
“25 through 27, NVIDIA will generate four hundred and fifty billion dollars, half a trillion dollars of cash flow.”
474 days left 2027-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Chamath: Nvidia will do $350B+ revenue and $200B free cash flow next year
“This thing is going to do 350 plus billion of revenue next year, two hundred billion of free cash flow.”
474 days left 2027-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Graham Allison estimates a 5% chance of China attacking Taiwan through 2027
“I think the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan this year or next year or even into 28, but let me just do 26 and 27, absent some major provocation by Taiwan or some other third incident is very low. I'd put it at about where the prediction markets are, five per…”
474 days left 2027-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Shapiro predicts Trump policies will cost 500,000 Pennsylvanians their healthcare
“I've got 500,000 Pennsylvanians who are going to lose their health care. I've got a 120,000 who have already lost their health care. About another 320,000 or so were likely to lose Medicaid next year. I've got 26 rural hospitals that are likely to shutter”
474 days left 2027-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Calacanis: Anthropic's revenue growth will slow and miss $1T next year
“I think Anthropics growth rate is going to slow considerably next year. And it's been obviously on a tear. There's no way they get to a trillion in revenue next year.”
474 days left 2027-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Calacanis: Nvidia will surpass Chinese AI models by end of 2027
“He's going to catch up and blow past China and the Chinese models, I think by the end of 20, 27.”
484 days left 2028-01-10
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2028
Feldman: Cerebras chip gains will exceed 2x over next 18 months
“And my view is in the next 18 months will be way over two X.”
498 days left 2028-01-24
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2028
Dr. Oz: Cheaper GLP-1s will return taxpayer money within two years
“At that price, we will, within two years, return money to the American taxpayer.”
573 days left 2028-04-08
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2028
Shapiro: Gas prices will probably take years to decrease
“Obviously this war has spiked gas prices up today about four 15, four 16 here in Pennsylvania, similar across the country, probably years before those gas prices come down, even if the war, you know, hopefully ends, you know, very, very soon.”
595 days left 2028-04-30
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2028
Friar: OpenAI won't get compute from Michigan data center until late 2027 or 2028
“Like that Michigan data center in Saline, I don't think we will be getting compute out of it until probably end of 27, early 28.”
617 days left 2028-05-22
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Baker estimates SpaceX will achieve rapid Starship reusability within 1-2 years
“I don't know when. I don't want to make a prediction. I would guess a year or two. Maybe sooner.”
653 days left 2028-06-27
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2028
Sacks: China will export cheap, turnkey AI packages within two years
“They're going to sell it at a fraction of the cost globally... China is going to be there within one or two years.”
667 days left 2028-07-11
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2028
Keith Rabois predicts human-labeled AI data will be obsolete within three years
“The truth is, I think there's a very short half-life on human label data. And so everybody who's investing in these companies just to get revenue traction really didn't understand that there may be a year, two years, Three years max when anybody uses human lab…”
686 days left 2028-07-30
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2028
Friedberg: Converting copyrighted data into AI knowledge will be upheld as fair use
“I do think fundamentally that the conversion of that data into what I would call knowledge and ultimately the ability to create new outcomes from that knowledge that are not copyrighted, that are not copies of the original material, I do think is going to end …”
694 days left 2028-08-07
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2028
Calacanis: Every Tesla sold will include built-in Starlink connectivity
“So the piece there that's going to be explained probably in the next year or two is every single Tesla sold is going to have Starlink in it when they get that merger done. What that means is you're going to have wifi networks connecting any phone. To any Tesla…”
700 days left 2028-08-13
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2028
Sacks: New AI data center scaling will rely entirely on natural gas
“The green stuff can't scale in the short term. It's all gas powered for the new data centers. That's the only way to kind of get the amount of scale that you need in the next year or two.”
758 days left 2028-10-10
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2028
Sacks: BRICS gold-backed trade currency unlikely in next few years
“The best guess about what they're going to do is it'll be some sort of gold-backed certificates where they can settle up huge international trade flows using gold certificates. So that might be part of what's driving this as well. That's a very long-term proje…”
786 days left 2028-11-07
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Sacks: Defeated 2026 California wealth tax will return stronger in 2028
“And that's why I think that if we defeat this in 26, it doesn't mean it's dead for good, it just means it's gonna come back In a new form in 28, but with much more broad based union support, all the unions are going to do it together.”
786 days left 2028-11-07
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Friedberg: Socialist candidate like AOC will likely emerge for Democrats in 2028
“I think there's a, as I've talked about many, many times, a very high probability that someone who's a little bit more socialist aligned is going to end up being kind of thrust forward here, and I think AOC fits the bill there.”
786 days left 2028-11-07
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Sacks: Gavin Newsom will probably win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination
“And Gavin probably will be the nominee because I do think that his performative antics are working with the base.”
786 days left 2028-11-07
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Sacks: National wealth tax will be standard Democratic platform by 2028
“And the other thing is that I think that by 28, this national wealth tax will just be a standard part of the Democratic platform.”
786 days left 2028-11-07
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Nate Silver: 43 states can be predicted for 2028 with 97% confidence
“43 of the 50 states, David, we could probably predict right now with 97% confidence who they'll vote for in 2028, and it's not because of rigging, it's because polarization and partisanship are very powerful forces that we can't seem to escape from.”
786 days left 2028-11-07
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Nate Silver: Democrats are slight favorites to win in 2028
“I think Democrats are slight favorites to win in 2028.”
840 days left 2028-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Trump administration aims to lower federal deficit to historical average by 2028
“We're going to set a goal by twenty-twenty-eight. We want to get back to the long-term average. We're going to deflate it slowly.”
840 days left 2028-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Kirtley: Helion will bring 50MW fusion plant online for Microsoft in 2028
“We have a per, a power purchase agreement to build a power plant with them to come online in 20, 28. This is 50 megawatts.”
840 days left 2028-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Sacks: US artillery shell production won't reach 90k monthly until 2028
“They're trying to ramp it up to 90,000 a month, but that's going to take till 2028 because, you know, it takes time to build it.”
844 days left 2029-01-04
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Baker predicts the US will hit 5% real GDP growth soon
“My most contrary belief, so I think that America over the next, at some point over the next four years, will print at least one year of greater than five percent GDP growth, real GDP growth.”
860 days left 2029-01-20
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Friedberg: Democratic wins in 2028 will trigger federal pension bailouts
“If you end up with a Democrat controlled house and a Democrat president, In 20, 28, you'll very likely see a federalization of that obligation, meaning that the federal government will step in to bail out or support those state and local governments”
860 days left 2029-01-20
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Bessent aims to reduce U.S. deficit-to-GDP ratio to 3% by 2028
“And I've said that I would, by the time President Trump leaves office, that we would like to have something with a three in front of it, which will stabilize the deficit to GDP, which is an important number, and enable us to start paying down debt.”
860 days left 2029-01-20
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Trump claims US will match China's electric generation capacity additions
“Under the Trump administration, we will be saying those very famous campaign words, drill, baby, drill, and build, baby, build, and we will be adding at least as much electric capacity as China.”
860 days left 2029-01-20
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Calacanis: Trump will spend as much as Biden did
“I guarantee you Trump's gonna spend a similar amount.”
860 days left 2029-01-20
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Calacanis: Next US administration will spend another $10 trillion regardless of winner
“Most of the reports out say they're going to spend another 10 trillion in the next administration, independent of who you vote for.”
880 days left 2029-02-09
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2029
Friedberg: Apple will reach $100B in Vision Pro sales within five years
“I think they're going to sell a hundred billion dollars of Apple vision pros, not this version, but this version plus the next version probably over the next. I would guess for them to get to a hundred billion in sales, it'll take them less than five years.”
880 days left 2029-02-09
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2029
Calacanis agrees Apple Vision Pro will exceed $100B in five years
“I take the over.”
935 days left 2029-04-05
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2029
Sacks: Consumer domestic humanoid robots will take more than five years
“Jason, I don't think it's a five year timeframe. I think it's longer than that. That's just my guess.”
940 days left 2029-04-10
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2029
Sacks: AI-generated code will reach 95% within a few years
“So number one is with respect to this market for code or code tokens, whatever you want to call it might be five percent today, meaning five percent of the codes, AI generated versus human generated. I think it's going to 95%. I mean, I bet any amount of money…”
960 days left 2029-04-30
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2029
Palihapitiya: Musk will acquire Twitter and double its valuation to $100B
“I think he's going to buy Twitter. I think he's going to clean it up. I think he's probably going to generate something like a two X on this. You know, we talked about how, you know, that's like a good terminal valuation in six or seven years that basically, y…”
986 days left 2029-05-26
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2029
Palihapitiya: Primary AI value will accrue to software companies in 5-7 years
“Where the real value gets accrued is Five, six, seven years later, when the software and services companies show up and create a huge moat.”
991 days left 2029-05-31
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2029
Chamath: Deploying a new unplanned natural gas plant takes at least four years
“If you have an unplanned Nat gas plant today, the fastest you could get that on is four years from now.”
997 days left 2029-06-06
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Marshall: Starship will drastically lower space launch costs in 2-3 years
“On the current trajectory with Starship in particular, I would expect it, the launch costs come down there in two to three years.”
999 days left 2029-06-08
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Nikesh Arora: Enterprise data storage needs will grow 10x in three years
“We are going to need 10 times the data stored enterprise than we have today.”
1001 days left 2029-06-10
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Dreyfus: Global above-ground silver stockpiles will run out in three years
“Right now the silver supply demand dynamic is we consume a 1,000,000,002 ounces a year, we supply a billion ounces a year. So it's a two hundred million ton deficit per year, and we only have six hundred million of above ground inventory left, so the clock's t…”
1024 days left 2029-07-03
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029
Calacanis: AI token costs will drop 90% annually for three years
“The cost of tokens, Freeburg, is going to go down 90% a year for the next three years.”
1044 days left 2029-07-23
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029
Huang: US will produce $500B in AI supercomputers over next four years
“In Arizona and Texas, we will, in the next four years, probably produce about half a trillion dollars worth of AI supercomputers.”
1074 days left 2029-08-22
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2029
Chamath: OpenAI could reach a $1.5T valuation within four years
“I would probably put that at like, 500 Dow to be conservative. It's probably doubling every two years. So 500 goes to a 1,000,000,001, billion goes to two in four years, and at two billion Dow, they generate a 1th of Facebook's revenue, just to be very conserv…”
1112 days left 2029-09-29
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2029
Dave Ricks expects to launch a mental health GLP-1 in 3-4 years
“So we'll get that drug in three or four years if it works, and I think it could really change some of these terrible mental health conditions.”
1129 days left 2029-10-16
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2029
Chamath: Netflix will inevitably reach one billion subscribers in 7–8 years
“They're gonna get to a billion subscribers. It's just inevitable. And so for them, I do think it's a very rational business position to take, which is that I have to appeal to a billion people over the next, you know, seven or eight years.”
1194 days left 2029-12-20
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
David Friedberg predicts non-developers will build and deploy software via chat within five years
“And in five years, just like we're all going to, and we're all using a chat like interfaces more frequently. You go to your chat like interface and eventually you realize you can ask it to build some tool for you that does something. And it renders the tool, a…”
1205 days left 2029-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
Wood expects 40% to 45% annual returns for disruptive tech equities
“The truly disruptive innovation we would expect. Now we did this chart at the end of last year during the next five years to deliver a compound annual rate of return of roughly 50%. Now we've had some of that. So maybe it's 40 to 45% compound annual rate of ch…”
1205 days left 2029-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
Gelsinger: Quantum supremacy will occur across multiple industries before 2030
“But this decade, we will see quantum supremacy results across multiple industries.”
1206 days left 2030-01-01
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2030
Chamath: Global solar will make China's 2030 nuclear fusion reactor irrelevant
“That reactor won't even get turned on until 2030. The entire world will be covered by solar by then, so it won't matter.”
1228 days left 2030-01-23
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2030
Feldman: Small modular reactors probably won't power data centers for 3-4 years
“I think it's both the obviously the right thing to do and probably not the source of data centers for the next three or four years.”
1293 days left 2030-03-29
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2030
Gavin Baker: China zero percent likely to build Nvidia rival within five years
“In the next five years, I think zero. I think it's really, really hard.”
1341 days left 2030-05-16
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2030
Sundar Pichai predicts practical quantum computing breakthroughs within five years
“So I would say in a five year time frame, You would have that moment where some, a really useful practical computation, you know, is done in a quantum way, far superior to classical computers.”
1377 days left 2030-06-21
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030
Calacanis predicts Microsoft's headcount will stay flat near 225,000 to 250,000
“I think they'll have just about two 50 plus or -10%. I don't think if I could pick push as the answer, I would pick push, which is they're going to get 10% better every year with AI, 20% more efficient. Therefore, they don't need to add people, but I also don'…”
1377 days left 2030-06-21
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030
Chamath Palihapitiya predicts Microsoft's employee base will grow over five years
“So I suspect that Microsoft business on the margin grows back to Dave's point. Some of the four 93 shrink and go away. It'll be cheaper for Microsoft to bundle together a bunch of other products that are point features today. And so they'll have more people. T…”
1377 days left 2030-06-21
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030
Friedberg: Microsoft faces core application revenue decline within next five years
“I do think that there's a real probability of revenue decline in the next five years. So if you look at the enterprise install base, I think that cloud gets competed away. So I do think like on the application software layer, they're going to have a really har…”
1386 days left 2030-06-30
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030
Baker predicts orbital compute will become a reality between 2028 and 2030
“Second half of 28 to First half of 20 30 would be my point prediction.”
1409 days left 2030-07-23
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
Litinsky predicts US taxpayers will profit from DoD deal in five years
“It would not surprise me if when we, five years from now, hopefully we'll do this conference, and Chamath, you'll say to me, Jim, you know, I remember that deal that was the first of its kind that you did with DoD, And the government made money on you. The tax…”
1409 days left 2030-07-23
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
Su: Physical AI chip market will take five years to surpass datacenters
“At least five years.”
1426 days left 2030-08-09
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2030
Calacanis: $1T-$2T will be deployed into data centers in 5 years
“We are now seeing hundreds of billions, low hundreds of billions per year being deployed, and we'll see a trillion or two deployed, I think, in the next five years on data centers and this”
1458 days left 2030-09-10
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2030
Musk: Tesla Optimus could reach 1M units annually in 5-6 years
“It's probably on the order of five, five years. Maybe, maybe six to get to a million units a year.”
1466 days left 2030-09-18
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2030
Yakovenko: The internet will hold the most US Treasuries within five years
“I think within five years, the internet is going to be the largest holder of US treasuries.”
1492 days left 2030-10-14
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2030
Wood: ARK Invest's bull-case price target for Bitcoin is $1.5 million
“Our official for bull case is 1.5 million.”
1492 days left 2030-10-14
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2030
Wood: Tesla stock will reach $2,600 per share in five years
“And we put out there five years. Yeah. Yeah. So and I think if he delivers on humanoid robots the way he thinks he is, we don't have enough in there. So our price target is 2600.”
1525 days left 2030-11-16
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2030
Palihapitiya: 10-year Treasury yield will hit 7-8% if deficits stay at 8% of GDP
“I mean, if you're going to run eight percent of GDP level deficits for the next four or five or six years. You're gonna have the tenure at seven to eight percent. That's just mathematical.”
1552 days left 2030-12-13
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Chamath predicts New York Times faces major libel lawsuit by 2030
“The one thing that I think is worth talking about the New York Times is I think they will in the next five years do something so egregious and over the line, akin to some sort of libel or some sort of statement that it turned out to be completely false. They w…”
1552 days left 2030-12-13
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Calacanis: AI will eliminate millions of entry-level jobs within five years
“We will have massive job displacement. Destruction, whatever term you prefer in entry level jobs already happening in, you know, what I'll call chores like dishes and driving cars, entry level jobs. Those are going away and they're going to go away in the mill…”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Gerstner: Generative AI revenue will exceed $1T annually by 2030
“We see about a hundred billion dollars already in incremental generative AI revenue in twenty-twenty-six. That has to grow to well over a trillion by twenty-thirty.”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Lochmiller: Data centers will grow to consume 10% of total US power
“Data center total power consumption is gonna go from two and a half percent of US power consumption to 10%.”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Sankar: China on pace to 3x US energy generation by 2030
“China is on pace by 2030 to three x the amount of generation against the US.”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Friedberg: China plans to bring a 10MW thorium reactor online by 2030
“It's a two megawatt experimental unit, and they're actually building and planning to take live a 10 megawatt unit by 20 30.”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Friedberg: China will have 100,000 flying cars in service by 2030
“The expectation is that by 2030, there'll be a 100,000 flying cars moving people around in China.”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Palihapitiya: US electricity costs will double between 2010 and 2030
“It will go up by another 40 odd percent through 2030. So between 20 10 and 20 30, the cost of electricity for every single American will have effectively doubled”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Palihapitiya: Nevada lithium deposit could supply 1.5M EVs by 2030
“There's a massive deposit of lithium in Nevada, Which would be enough to basically feed Tesla and another OEM, okay? So this would get probably somewhere between one and one and a half million cars, pure electric on the road by 2030.”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Chamath: The four major tech monopolies will be broken up by 2030
“And if I was a betting man, end of decade, these four monopolies will not exist.”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Sacks: Annual venture capital exit volume could reach $1 trillion by 2030
“Wouldn't be surprised if VC hits one trillion by 2030.”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Jensen Huang: Dario Amodei's $1T AI revenue forecast is conservative
“I think he, I think he's being very conservative. I believe Dario and Anthropica is going to do way better than that.”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Chamath: AI-generated code will eliminate human security vulnerabilities by 2028-2030
“But at some point, when most of the code is generated by the model, there'll be some point in the future, say, 28 or 29 or twenty-thirty, these security holes won't exist because the errors that humans make won't be made by these models.”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Kratsios: US will return to Moon and deploy space reactor by 2028
“We're going to have American boots back on the moon in 28. We said we're going to have a nuclear reactor in space by 28. We're going to have the first elements of a moon base by twenty-thirty. These are like big, bold bets that take a decade to accomplish, and…”
1608 days left 2031-02-07
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2031
Friedberg: Software market cap will be 4x to 10x higher in 5 years
“I think the value creation potential in front of us is so significant that I would say that you could probably take the sum of the market cap of all the software companies today and have a pretty good bet that everything will be four to 10 X higher five years …”
1649 days left 2031-03-20
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2031
Chamath: ASML cannot manufacture lithography machines in US for 5-6 years
“ASML, who makes the extremely complicated Lithography machines, as an example, can't necessarily do that for another five or six years here.”
1663 days left 2031-04-03
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2031
Friedberg: Damaged Qatari fertilizer plant will take 3-5 years to repair
“That facility got damaged, the main facility that's being used to make fertilizer. So that is the largest producer of urea in the world. That's now going to be incapacitated for three to five years.”
1665 days left 2031-04-05
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2031
Calacanis: Every US middle-class household will lease a domestic robot by 2031
“I think every human's gonna have one of these, I think every household in America Every middle-class household in America will have one of these thousand-dollar-a-month robots in seven years.”
1746 days left 2031-06-25
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2031
Friedberg: Desktop 'vaccine printers' will download code to print local vaccines
“Well, we are going to enter a stage here in the next decade where we will have vaccine printers around the world. There are going to be small bioreactors. You're going to be able to effectively ship code to them. They're going to print vaccines.”
1767 days left 2031-07-16
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Calacanis: 1-2B people will gain broadband access within a decade
“We're going to take a billion or two billion people and give them broadband instantly within a decade.”
1769 days left 2031-07-18
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Sacks: NY data center moratorium will delay new builds at least five years
“So when you start talking about a moratorium on data centers, it's not like a few month pause. It's probably a good five years at least before You know, you can get another data center switched on in the state of New York.”
1927 days left 2031-12-23
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2031
Calacanis predicts DAOs will handle $4 billion capital formations within ten years
“I say DAOs because I believe that they will become legal and global capital formation for the first time on an instant basis will exist, and I believe forty million is the dry run for the Constitution, four hundred million and four billion will happen in the n…”
1933 days left 2031-12-29
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2031
David Friedberg predicts commercial-scale cell-based meat within five to ten years
“Cell-based meat will be available at a commercial scale within the next five to 10 years.”
2087 days left 2032-05-31
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2032
Litinsky: Scaling novel lithium extraction tech to commercial viability takes 5-10 years
“And so there may be, that may be an example of a solution, but that'll take five to 10 years.”
2180 days left 2032-09-01
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2032
Calacanis: Automation will eliminate tens of millions of jobs in 5-10 years
“We are within You know, I think five, 10 years of a lot of these jobs. We're talking tens of millions of manual labor jobs being gone.”
2196 days left 2032-09-17
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2032
Uber expects to employ more human drivers in five to seven years
“So I think for the next five to seven years, we're going to have more human drivers and delivery people just because we're going so quickly.”
2231 days left 2032-10-22
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2032
Friedberg: Total capital managed in venture funds has peaked and will decline
“We're probably at peak capital being managed in venture funds right now, and will likely decline for the next decade.”
2248 days left 2032-11-08
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2032
Chamath: Democrats will lose California or New York within eight years
“I completely agree with you, and I'll go even further, which is, I think that the Democrats will lose one of California or New York in the next eight years.”
2301 days left 2032-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2032
Friedberg: US Social Security will be functionally bankrupt by 2032
“We have until 2032 when social security will be functionally bankrupt and everyone's going to get overtaxed and kids are going to end up having to pay through inflation for the benefits of the retirees of the last generation.”
2301 days left 2032-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2032
Friedberg: Social Security Trust Fund will go bankrupt in 2032
“Today, the Social Security Trust Fund has 2.7 trillion dollar balance, and based on the outflows and inflows, it's going to go bankrupt in 2032.”
2301 days left 2032-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2032
Friedberg: Social Security and state defaults will force bailouts by 2032
“Then the next big thing is going to happen around 2030 to 20 32. And that's really where social security doesn't have any money to pay anymore. And I think during that era is also when a lot of the states are going to become bankrupt. We're not going to be abl…”
2339 days left 2033-02-07
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2033
Friedberg: Social Security will be functionally bankrupt in eight years
“Social Security's functionally going to be bankrupt in eight years.”
2412 days left 2033-04-21
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2033
Baker: Starship will replace transoceanic air cargo within ten years
“Yeah, there will be no more Trans-Pacific or Trans-Atlantic cargo flights. I think in five, six, seven, eight, 10 years, you're gonna need a big Starship fleet to accomplish that. But I think the Trans-Atlantic and Trans-Pacific aerospace cargo routes go away.”
2419 days left 2033-04-28
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2033
Sacks: San Francisco commercial real estate recovery will take a decade
“I think it's like, yeah, it doesn't seem like a decade. It's a decade.”
2462 days left 2033-06-10
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2033
Chamath: Zip-code-localized AI call center agents will arrive in 5-10 years
“But in the next, you know, five or 10 years, you'll have this flawless unaccented English or even more eerily, perfectly accented English for the zip code of the person that's calling in so that it sounds like they're talking to somebody that's literally their…”
2483 days left 2033-07-01
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2033
Calacanis predicts Vladimir Putin will lose power within 10 years
“I think we're gonna see in the next 10 years, Putin lose power and he's going to be out of power.”
2601 days left 2033-10-27
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2033
Calacanis: Middle East will be the #2 VC region within a decade
“On a very pragmatic basis, I will say this is going to be the number two region in venture capital, and it's going to be that in 10 years”
2666 days left 2033-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2033
Gelsinger: Quantum computing will likely break encryption by 2032 or 2033
“You know, 20, 2020, 32, 20, 33, when we solve, you know, things like encryption, right, you know, where, you know, he'll have the fundamental Q day, you know, kind of implications.”
2747 days left 2034-03-22
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2034
Chamath: DOJ Apple lawsuit will take 10 years or be dropped
“There's a, at least a 50% chance that the administration is going to turn over, which means that this lawsuit changes or goes away entirely. And then even if it does kind of proceed, it's going to take 10 years of very detailed arguments for something to happe…”
2782 days left 2034-04-26
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2034
Calacanis: Autonomous ride-hailing at scale is 5 to 10 years away
“I think a lot of people are going to get there at the same time. Wouldn't be surprised if Elon gets there first, but I think that's five or 10 years out, if I'm being totally honest, you know, in terms of getting to scale.”
2936 days left 2034-09-27
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2034
Friedberg: Mobile handsets will no longer exist in ten years
“I don't think that mobile handsets are going to be around in 10 years. I don't think we're going to have this, like, phone in our pocket that we're like, Pressing buttons on and touching and telling it where on the browser to go to the browser interface is goi…”
2947 days left 2034-10-08
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2034
Analysts project GLP-1 drug market could reach $150B annually within 10 years
“The GLP one drug market, which some analysts have said could grow to as much as a hundred fifty billion in annual revenue over the next 10 years”
3007 days left 2034-12-07
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2034
Friedberg: China to reach 3-4x US electricity capacity in 10 years
“In 10 years, we're going to be looking across the water at, you know, a competitive country that has three X, four X, the electricity production capacity of our country.”
3032 days left 2035-01-01
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2035
Chamath: New nuclear energy deployment will take until 2035
“Nuclear? I can't. Because that'll take till 2035.”
3077 days left 2035-02-15
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2035
Calacanis: The US will lose millions of driver jobs by 2035
“If we lose millions of driver jobs, which we will in the next 10 years, just like we lost millions of cashier jobs, well, that's going to impact how our nation and many of the voters look at the border and immigration.”
3176 days left 2035-05-25
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2035
Sen. Johnson projects U.S. national debt will reach $62 to $63 trillion
“The CBO projection right now that is adding another 22 trillion dollars to our debt, it certainly would add at least that. I would argue probably add another three or four trillion dollars, so it's not gonna be 59 trillion, it's gonna be more like 62, 63 trill…”
3182 days left 2035-05-31
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2035
Calacanis: Taxi driver jobs will no longer exist in ten years
“We're seeing robo-taxis start to hit the streets, and I don't think anybody believes that being a cab driver is going to exist as a job 10 years from now.”
3279 days left 2035-09-05
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2035
Rand Paul projects US will borrow $15 trillion over next decade
“We're going to borrow like 15 trillion dollars over the next 10 years.”
3279 days left 2035-09-05
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2035
Chamath: U.S. national debt interest expense will likely reach $2 trillion annually
“Interest expense will probably become two trillion a year.”
3290 days left 2035-09-16
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2035
Lyons: AI will eliminate more non-union than union jobs over 10 years
“In fact, I think a lot more unrepresented jobs are going to disappear as a result of AI than represented jobs over the next 10 years.”
3291 days left 2035-09-17
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2035
Financial firms will own large autonomous vehicle fleets within ten years
“10 years down the line, you know, there are these things called REITs, real estate investment trucks. You're going to have fleets. You're going to have financial owners that own big fleets of cars that are on our network, maybe on other networks.”
3304 days left 2035-09-30
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2035
Cliffton: A multi-hundred-billion-dollar automated logistics company will emerge soon
“I'm very confident someone is going to build a multi-hundred billion dollar company in automated logistics over the next five to 10 years.”
3318 days left 2035-10-14
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2035
Wood: Global real GDP growth will accelerate to 7% within a decade
“We believe that the productivity uplift here is going to be so strong during the next five to 10 years. And I think president Trump's tax package is going to turbocharge this, that real GDP growth will accelerate from that three percent where it has been for t…”
3346 days left 2035-11-11
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2035
Chamath: San Francisco will file for bankruptcy within 10 to 15 years
“San Francisco will file for bankruptcy in the next 10 years.”
3360 days left 2035-11-25
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2035
Palihapitiya predicts Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson will run for US president within 15 years
“I'd like to go on the record with my fifteen-year projection then, or which is that The Rock is gonna run for president.”
3396 days left 2035-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2035
Palihapitiya: SMR nuclear deployment in the US is at least a decade away
“We all talk about SMRs, small modular reactors. The reality is that if you get everything permitted and you believe the technology can be de-risked, you're still in a 20, 35 plus timeframe. You're a decade away.”
3479 days left 2036-03-23
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2036
Roberts: Large nuclear energy projects for data centers will take a decade
“I think the reality is it's going to take a decade, a bit longer by the time big projects can come into commissioning”
3546 days left 2036-05-29
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2036
Calacanis: All cab, truck, and package sorting jobs eliminated within 10 years
“Every cab driver's losing their job. Every truck driver's losing their job in the next 10 years. Anybody sorting packages is losing a job.”
3554 days left 2036-06-06
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2036
Marshall: Most compute will move to space within 10 years
“I think no question within 10 years, most compute will be putting in space, which, to give you a sense, is a lot of money, like trillions, and will be bigger than any of the other space businesses today, comms, earth imaging, this is why we're getting into thi…”
3560 days left 2036-06-12
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2036
Friedberg: Space systems will replace all RTK and GPS in next decade
“I just think the space thing is, is likely the path that's gonna replace all RTK and all GPS in the next decade.”
3581 days left 2036-07-03
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2036
Calacanis: Humans will no longer sort or deliver packages in 10 years
“What Optimus is going to do when Bezos and Andy Jassy unleash Optimus inside of the Amazon factories is it's going to get rid of every, let me state this very clearly, every single package sorting, every single package delivery will not be done by humans in 10…”
3581 days left 2036-07-03
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2036
Chamath: California will face bankruptcy and debt restructuring within 10 years
“Then we're gonna deal with a California bankruptcy in the next 10 years, and it is unfortunately, no, and it will unfortunately result in a complete restructuring of those debt obligations.”
3589 days left 2036-07-11
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2036
Gerstner: Over 100M Trump Accounts will be set up within a decade
“We are on a trajectory now that we're going to have over a hundred million of these counts set up over the next decade.”
3812 days left 2037-02-19
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2037
Friedberg: Autologous induced stem cell therapy is about 15 years away
“We can actually do stem cells from your body, and that's like, you know, 15 years out is autologous induced stem cell therapy, where you actually make your own stem cells, and then give yourself all sorts of therapies, not just bone marrow transplants, but you…”
4003 days left 2037-08-29
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2037
Friedberg: First cellular rejuvenation drug approval is 7 to 12 years away
“Just knowing the clinical path there, I would say we're probably somewhere between seven and 12 years.”
4057 days left 2037-10-22
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2037
Friedberg predicts store-bought milk will be lab-grown within 15 years
“In the next 10 to 15 years, most of the milk you buy at the store will be Identical to cow's milk. Same protein composition.”
4396 days left 2038-09-26
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2038
Khosla predicts multiple fusion energy companies will succeed within 15 years
“In fact, I guess, 15 years from now, we'll be looking at one, more than one company that's successful.”
4857 days left 2039-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2039
Dave Ricks predicts Mounjaro revenues will drop to zero in the 2030s
“So, in 20, 30 something, Manjaro will go to zero.”
4921 days left 2040-03-04
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2040
Chamath: Draymond Green will be governor of Michigan or California by 50
“Guys, guys, I'm gonna make a prediction that our bestie will be the governor of Michigan or the governor of California. Before, before the time he's 50.”
4952 days left 2040-04-04
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2040
Friedberg: China will add double US electric capacity in 15 years
“In the next 15 years, they're gonna add More electricity production capacity than the United States times two has today.”
5002 days left 2040-05-24
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2040
Friedberg: US power grid will reach 2 terawatts over 15 years versus China's 8
“Meanwhile, right now, China is making three terawatts, and they're scaling up to make eight. We are at one going to two over the next 15 years.”
5299 days left 2041-03-17
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2041
Gerstner: Invest America could transfer $5 trillion to families over 15 years
“And the estimate is over 15 years. We can move five trillion dollars into the pockets of families that would have otherwise had zero.”
5883 days left 2042-10-22
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2042
Friedberg: US federal tax rates on the wealthiest will exceed 60%
“I don't see a world where we don't have over 60% tax rates on the wealthiest people in this country at a federal level.”
6050 days left 2043-04-07
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2043
Chamath: China will hit a demographic wall in 15-20 years
“What happened with Japan is that Japan just hit a demographic wall, not dissimilar to what China is about to hit in the next 15 or 20 years.”
6218 days left 2043-09-22
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2043
Friedberg: 100% chance existing fusion portfolio yields low-cost power in 20 years
“I think there's a hundred percent chance that the portfolio of 70 fusion companies that exist today that are pursuing this technology will succeed. And that we will get low cost power in the next 20 years at scale, right?”
6318 days left 2043-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2043
Mahan: San Jose will clear pension debt by early 2040s
“By the early 20 forties, San Jose will have cleared the debt.”
6480 days left 2044-06-10
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2044
World needs 10,000 years worth of copper in next 18 years
“Over the next 18 years, We're gonna need seven hundred million tons of copper. Over the next 18 years, we're gonna need as much copper as we mined in the last 10,000 years.”
6967 days left 2045-10-10
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2045
Chamath: Nuclear, solar, and natural gas will diminish global oil demand in 10-20 years
“Eventually in the 10 or 15 or 20 year timeframe, you'll have an abundance of electrons from nuclear. In the meantime, you have an abundance of electrons from net gas. You have an abundance of electrons, frankly, from solar. And all of these things will ultimat…”
7470 days left 2047-02-25
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2047
Friedberg: China's nuclear expansion will drop industrial energy costs below 5 cents
“And so as China builds out a 140 nuclear plants here over the next two to three decades, they're going to see their energy cost decline from about nine cents for industrial use, potentially, you know, into the sub five cent per kilowatt hour range, which makes…”
8049 days left 2048-09-26
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2048
Khosla predicts most cars in cities will be replaced in 25 years
“I actually think we are very much on track to replace most cars in most cities in 25 years.”
8510 days left 2049-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2049
Friedberg predicts fusion production demos in 2030s, grid scale in 2040s
“My estimate is that we will see production demonstration of fusion in the 20 thirties. So call it eight years from now plus, and then you'll see grid scale scale up in the 20 forties.”
8511 days left 2050-01-01
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2050
Chamath: Humanity will have household companion robots by 2050
“We should have companion robots by twenty-fifty.”
8511 days left 2050-01-01
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2050
Friedberg predicts most goods will use biological manufacturing by 2050
“I think by twenty-fifty, you know, we should see most of our goods that are manufactured rather than being made in the traditional sense, which is basically old technology scaled up which is what the industrial revolution did but really shift to a new model of…”
8763 days left 2050-09-10
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2050
Musk: Mars could become self-sustaining in roughly 25 to 30 years
“I think it can be done in, in 30 years. Provided there's an exponential increase in the tonnage to Mars, with each successive Mars transfer windows, which is every two years. So every two years, the planets align, and you can transfer to Mars. So I think in, R…”
8875 days left 2050-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2050
Palihapitiya: US energy deficit will equal 2.5 Californias by 2050
“By 20 50, the United States of America will be two and a half California's worth of energy in deficit.”
8875 days left 2050-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2050
Chamath: US electricity deficit will reach 1.7 TWh by 2050
“We will be 1.7 terawatt hours short by 20 50, which is when you calculate it as energy. It is six X of California's entire energy consumption. Six California's short of energy.”
9086 days left 2051-07-30
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2051
Palihapitiya: Room-temperature superconductors will arrive within 20 to 30 years
“People have been innovating in bringing that up to room temperature. In that breakthrough, which I think you will see in the next 20 to 30 years, it's just a complete sea change of how we think about this whole problem.”
9150 days left 2051-10-02
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2051
Friedberg: 2021 private unicorn index will surpass $46T in 20-30 years
“But the reality is the index of companies today, I would be willing to bet 20 to 30 years from now is worth more than the 46 trillion dollar of all the public companies.”
9164 days left 2051-10-16
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2051
Friedberg: Quantum computing will enable deterministic molecular modeling within 30 years
“Using quantum computing in the next 30 years, hopefully, we'll be able to deterministically model these behaviors on a molecular and atomic level, and as a result, kind of build new systems to make things and that'll be an incredible kind of toolkit for humans…”
10912 days left 2056-07-29
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2056
Calacanis: Humanoid robots could reach 1:1 ratio with humans in 20-30 years
“That I think we can both agree will be, maybe in the next 2030 years, one-to-one with humans on the planet.”
12528 days left 2060-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2060
Friedberg: Quantum computers won't crack RSA-2048 encryption before 2040
“The estimate currently by some researchers is that this there's a less than five percent chance this happens before the year 2040. So we're talking somewhere between the year 2040 and the 2060. When we get a quantum computer that has enough logical qubits to b…”
13020 days left 2062-05-07
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2062
Goldstein: Trump's Supreme Court appointments will span four decades
“The lead time effect of one presidency, of the Trump presidency, for example, now will span, you know, four decades.”
17617 days left 2074-12-07
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2074
Baker: World will run mostly on solar power within 50 years
“I think it is highly likely that in my lifetime, the world just runs on solar. Like if you just, you know, we all know compound interest is the greatest force on earth, but if you just look at the rate at which photovoltaic cell efficiency is compounding, batt…”
17892 days left 2075-09-08
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2075
Wright: Solar will never reach 10 percent of global energy
“He has a wildly exaggerated view of where solar and batteries will go. And I'd love, if we could make a bet 50 years out, I'll make a bet, solar never gets to 10% of global energy.”
24369 days left 2093-06-02
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2093
Palihapitiya predicts China's population will halve within 70 years
“The country will be halved by the death rate and the lack of birth rate by 20 300. Ok, so in another 70 odd years.”
26772 days left 2099-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2099
Chamath: US population will reach ~400M by end of century while others halve
“The United States is we are the only Western country that is forecasted to grow at reasonable rates above our replacement population. And so, you know, by the end of this century will be around 404 hundred odd million individuals, and other countries will have…”
26773 days left 2100-01-01
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2100
Chamath: China's population will halve to 600 million by 2100
“Their population get current course and speed. I think the last number is it's going to have by 2100. There'll be about six hundred million people in China”
26773 days left 2100-01-01
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2100
Chamath: LA County will have zero net births before end of century
“Before the turn of the century, the County of Los Angeles will have zero net births.”
27137 days left 2100-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2100
Friedberg: Photon-based computing will replace electron-based computing by 2100
“I will say, I have a belief that I think electron-based computing is going to go by the wayside by the end of the century and be replaced with Photon-based computing, and I think we're going to move most of what we do today with copper and semiconducting mater…”
27137 days left 2100-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2100
Sacks predicts China's population will fall below 600M by 2100
“The numbers are, it's gonna be under six hundred million by the year 2100”
27137 days left 2100-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2100
Chamath: China's population will fall to around 600M by 2100
“By 2100, it's going to be around six hundred million.”
27137 days left 2100-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2100
Palihapitiya: China's population will shrink to 700 million by 2100
“By the end of 2100, China's population will shrink from 1.2000000000 people down to about seven hundred million people.”
27137 days left 2100-12-31
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2100
Chamath predicts China's population will shrink to 700 million
“China's population , I think is projected to shrink to about seven hundred million people.”
34731 days left 2121-10-16
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2121
Friedberg: Personal room replicators will exist within 100 to 120 years
“In a hundred to a 120 years from now, I do think we'll all have a replicator in our room. That replicator will make all the things we want to make nearly instantaneously with very low energy and very low cost.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath: Global copper supply will be short 70% by 2040
“And right now, Jason, we are on a path by 2040 where we will be short about 70% of the global supply at current course and speed.”
Prediction Held up
Chamath: $30 trillion wealth transfer will occur over 20 years
“And we are about to go through over the next 20 years, 30 trillion dollars of wealth transfer.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sacks predicts no new U.S. gun control legislation for a generation
“There's not going to be any new gun control legislation for a generation because of the looting and writing that's going on Gun sales are at an all-time high.”
Prediction Held up
Taneja: AI will enable Theranos-style single-drop blood diagnostics within 10 years
“I think it's very likely because the challenge with this is how can you actually manufacture Those nano devices where you can take really low volumes and be accurate and measure these things. Technology wasn't there. So when you're going back to our hardware m…”
Prediction Partly held up
Travis Kalanick warns expanding California's grid by 10% will take years
“Even getting 20% more, 10% more is going to be a gargantuan five to 10 year exercise.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Raboy: Quantum computing is at least a decade away from commercial applications
“First of all, I think there's a long time before this becomes a commercial product or application of any sort. So, you know, it's great that they're taking money, but think about it as like almost like Stanford takes money or the U S government funds basic res…”
Prediction Held up
Phillips: Social Security faces ~25% benefit cuts by 2033
“Social Security, the trust fund, will face probably reductions in 25, about 25% cut levels by twenty-thirty-three, based on the current path.”
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: DAO capital pools will reach $4 billion within ten years
“So what we're going to see I predict is this forty million dollar Dow will turn into a 400,000,001 in the next two years and then a 4,000,001 in the next 10.”
Prediction Held up
Calacanis predicts AI platforms will settle with content owners over training data
“There'll be a settlement where they are going to be able to claim their content.”
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: Music industry rightsholders will win AI copyright lawsuits
“That's why I think the music industry is going to win, and some other places are going to win”
Prediction Held up
Gerstner: US government will take action against AI model distillation
“I think the US government is going to take steps against distillation, which they should do.”
Prediction Held up
Dreyfus: Building 15 GW of AI factories yearly will require 750k tons of copper
“Data centers for a one gigawatt AI factory now, you need 50,000 tons of copper per gigawatt, and we're gonna start building 15 gigawatts of these things per year.”
Prediction Held up
Dreyfus: Standard electrification will trigger US power shortfalls without AI
“Now, if we simply just want to achieve our objectives to re-industrialize, re-shore, electrify, when I say electrify, that just means replacing your old gas boilers in these buildings with heat pumps, which every commercial building is doing. It means, you kno…”
Prediction Held up
Gerstner: SpaceX will use an innovative lockup structure for its IPO
“With respect to the lockup, I think this is the most innovative, and I think SpaceX is going to have a very similar innovation.”
Prediction Held up
Sacks predicts Washington regulatory push will eventually ban open-source AI
“In terms of the red capture agenda that you're seeing in Washington, I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models or open weight models.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath predicts Spencer Pratt will win the Los Angeles mayoral election
“And Spencer Pratt, if he wins this election, which I think he's going to in Los Angeles, the reason is what Brad said.”
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: ChatGPT consumer market share will drop well under 50%
“They're going to be well under 50% market share, and I think ChatGPT is going to have some big challenges there on the consumer side.”
Prediction Held up
Friedberg: Kevin Warsh will modernize Fed data to real-time digital systems
“You could probably make a bet or an investment on the idea that Kevin Warsh will lead the Fed to a new digital, better data system, more streamlined, more frequent, better data.”
Prediction Held up
Friedberg: Advanced AI models will ultimately run locally on iPhones
“Ultimately these things end up on the iPhone running locally, and you don't need to go to the cloud.”
Prediction Held up
Armstrong: AI agents will use stablecoins and crypto wallets for payments
“AI agents, I think, are gonna use stablecoins and wallet, crypto wallets.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Natural gas power will meet most near-term US grid growth
“But in between now, 20, 25 and 20 30 a lot of it's going to come back to LNG because that the fastest thing we can get online for more electricity generation is LNG power plants.”
Prediction Partly held up
Lochmiller: Data centers will drive 20% of US power demand growth
“Data centers are forecasted to account for 20% of the growth in power demand between now and 2030.”
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: Global annual rare earth mineral consumption will double by 2030
“You guys probably know we use about a 150 thousand metric tons a year right now. That's gonna double by 2030.”
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: Dutch emissions targets will force farmers to reduce livestock
“They're targeting a 50% cut nationwide by 20, 30 livestock produces these emissions. So the plan will likely force Dutch farmers to cut their livestock herds or stop working altogether.”
