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Tom Goldstein

Co-Founder, SCOTUSblog · 1 appearance on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

founderanalystacademicotherscotusblog.com ↗Wikipedia ↗

Tom Goldstein is an appellate attorney who argued over 40 cases before the U.S. Supreme Court and co-founded SCOTUSblog. He formerly led the litigation firm Goldstein & Russell and taught Supreme Court litigation at Harvard and Stanford.

9statements → 5claims → 3claims resolved → 67%fully supported → 3.67/5average certainty → 3.11/5average debate potential → ≈4.0/5argument clarity, estimated →

2 supported 0 partly supported 1 contradicted 1 not yet assessed 1 not checkable as stated how the 5 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

4 predictions · 1 assertion · 1 opinion · 3 insights · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertion are the 5 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 3 are resolved, 1 is not yet assessed, and 1 names no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Tom argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Prediction Held up
Goldstein: Supreme Court conservative majority will likely vote 5-4 to overturn Roe
“Till June of this year, where they will likely win five to four.”
Tom Goldstein May 7, 2022 ▶ 24:57 E79: Analyzing the leaked draft overturning Roe v. Wade with Amy Howe and Tom Goldstein

Their most notable contradicted claim

Assertion Contradicted
Goldstein: Texas AG is reviewing Plyler v. Doe precedent on undocumented education
“The attorney general of Texas has said, look, I'm now, see, I heard what's gonna happen with Roe. I'm now looking at Plyler versus Doe. That's the constitutional decision that says states have to educate children, no matter whether or not they're lawfully in t…”
Tom Goldstein May 7, 2022 ▶ 35:54 E79: Analyzing the leaked draft overturning Roe v. Wade with Amy Howe and Tom Goldstein

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
100% certainty 3
0% certainty 4
none yet certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: speaking style how? →

243 words/min while actually speaking · 19.5 um and uh per 1k words

No argument clarity score for Tom Goldstein: only 6 usable question→answer exchanges on raw tape (a fair score needs 8+). We do not score a sample that small. Roundtable and news formats yield far fewer direct exchanges than interviews. Their coarse estimate from 6 raw tape exchanges is ≈4.0/5, shown at half point precision because the sample is small.

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 4,470 words across 1 episode of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

Everything Tom Goldstein said on All-In that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Prediction Held up
Goldstein: Supreme Court conservative majority will likely vote 5-4 to overturn Roe
“Till June of this year, where they will likely win five to four.”
Tom Goldstein May 7, 2022 ▶ 24:57 E79: Analyzing the leaked draft overturning Roe v. Wade with Amy Howe and Tom Goldstein
Opinion
Goldstein: Roe v. Wade is on life support best case
“That might be in play, but people ought not be misled into thinking, like, there's a real, real debate about what's going on in abortion, and the Supreme Court row is, is on life support best case.”
Tom Goldstein May 7, 2022 ▶ 48:33 E79: Analyzing the leaked draft overturning Roe v. Wade with Amy Howe and Tom Goldstein
Prediction Held up
Goldstein: Chief Justice Roberts likely favors narrowing Roe over complete reversal
“They thought that John Roberts would, and it appears that he's very likely willing to cut back on Roe, but not overrule it entirely.”
Tom Goldstein May 7, 2022 ▶ 25:34 E79: Analyzing the leaked draft overturning Roe v. Wade with Amy Howe and Tom Goldstein
Assertion Contradicted
Goldstein: Texas AG is reviewing Plyler v. Doe precedent on undocumented education
“The attorney general of Texas has said, look, I'm now, see, I heard what's gonna happen with Roe. I'm now looking at Plyler versus Doe. That's the constitutional decision that says states have to educate children, no matter whether or not they're lawfully in t…”
Tom Goldstein May 7, 2022 ▶ 35:54 E79: Analyzing the leaked draft overturning Roe v. Wade with Amy Howe and Tom Goldstein
Insight
Goldstein: Perceptions of Supreme Court bias depend 95% on agreeing with outcomes
“Our, the perception of any individual about the Supreme Court, and whether it's neutral and objective, or instead political and biased, tends to be Rooted 95% on whether you like what it's doing or not.”
Tom Goldstein May 7, 2022 ▶ 40:30 E79: Analyzing the leaked draft overturning Roe v. Wade with Amy Howe and Tom Goldstein
Insight
Goldstein: Yielding SCOTUS rulings to draft leak protests sets terrible precedent
“Institutionally, that sets an Unbelievably bad precedent if it creates the impression that leaking documents to the public leading to protests causes the Supreme Court to change its mind.”
Tom Goldstein May 7, 2022 ▶ 51:04 E79: Analyzing the leaked draft overturning Roe v. Wade with Amy Howe and Tom Goldstein
Insight
Goldstein: Filibuster is sole blocker to federal abortion protection
“The only reason that you're not getting a federal statute when you have a Democrats in control of the Senate, the House, and the presidency, the only reason you're not getting a federal statute protecting a right to an abortion Is the filibuster essentially.”
Tom Goldstein May 7, 2022 ▶ 16:50 E79: Analyzing the leaked draft overturning Roe v. Wade with Amy Howe and Tom Goldstein
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Goldstein: US won't enact Supreme Court term limits until a justice becomes senile
“We're not going to amend the Constitution to do this until we end up with a justice who's senile and who can't do the job and the Supreme Court turns into a laughing stock.”
Tom Goldstein May 7, 2022 ▶ 52:48 E79: Analyzing the leaked draft overturning Roe v. Wade with Amy Howe and Tom Goldstein
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2062
Goldstein: Trump's Supreme Court appointments will span four decades
“The lead time effect of one presidency, of the Trump presidency, for example, now will span, you know, four decades.”
Tom Goldstein May 7, 2022 ▶ 54:09 E79: Analyzing the leaked draft overturning Roe v. Wade with Amy Howe and Tom Goldstein

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
E79: Analyzing the leaked draft overturning Roe v. Wade with Amy Howe and Tom Goldstein May 7, 2022 21m
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